re: Going for 2 in that situation.

Here is the math, assuming everything has a 50% chance of success. 2pt=50%, OT Win/Lose = 50% etc.

As the poster says above, the analytics say you that you have a 62.5% chance of winning going for 2 after the 1st TD, but there are some other factors which could play a role, good or bad.

1) If you make it, the other team might be more motivated to make the 1st down, thus preventing you from getting the ball back.

2) But this also makes them more likely to fumble or to throw an interception, or maybe stop the clock on an incompletion.

3) Likewise, if you don't score on the 1st 2 pt conversion, the other team might go into a shell mode and just try to eat as much clock as possible, therefore, you might be more likely to get the ball back.

4) If you don't get the 2pt conversion on the 1st or 2nd TD, you still might have time on the clock to get an onside kick. The percentages are super low, but it would add a percentage point or two to the W column.

I thought they were crazy for doing it last night, but after looking at the math, it actually does make some sense to me.