re: Going for 2 in that situation.

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Here is a practical version of the explanation of why it is correct.

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The problem is that general probabilities only work as more and more chances pile up and they trend toward a certain outcome. That's why they are great for determining the best shots in the NBA regular season, because similar shots by specific shooters pile up over time and trend toward certain probabilities.

But with one or two specific plays the situation is much different. Especially in the NFL you get into a situation where you don't have the data on plays with specific matchups.

That's what's confusing about probability. It works when variables are isolated and experiments are run over and over but when so much rides on one outcome a general probability falls far short of giving a clear-cut decision in a complex situation.

My view is that taking the option to extend the game for as many plays as possible probably gives the best chance to smooth out the probability of winning close to 50%, which is the best you can ask for and that probably rides on the coin toss in overtime.