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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:44 pm to Madking
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:44 pm to Madking
if you are afraid to go for 2 despite the obvious mathematical advantage it provides, you shouldn't be an NFL head coach to begin with.
fear-based decision making is flawed.
your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move
fear-based decision making is flawed.
your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move
3
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to Corinthians420
Vegas uses math to set lines.
Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.
Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD
Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.
Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD
Posted on 1/22/24 at 1:47 pm to Corinthians420
How ironic since what you’re advocating for is a gamble based on fear. Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 2:07 pm to Corinthians420
These discussions get into the philosophy of probability and frequentism vs bayesianism.
Teams in that situation may win with a certain frequency using a certain strategy but that does not take into account game conditions and what specific plays are run and how the opposing defense has performed against those plays and what personnel is on the field during the play.
The Bayesian is constantly updating their odds based on situations while the frequentist just says that if something happens a large number of times it will trend toward a certain probability.
Teams in that situation may win with a certain frequency using a certain strategy but that does not take into account game conditions and what specific plays are run and how the opposing defense has performed against those plays and what personnel is on the field during the play.
The Bayesian is constantly updating their odds based on situations while the frequentist just says that if something happens a large number of times it will trend toward a certain probability.
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