re: Going for 2 in that situation.

if you are afraid to go for 2 despite the obvious mathematical advantage it provides, you shouldn't be an NFL head coach to begin with.

fear-based decision making is flawed.

your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move