re: Going for 2 in that situation.

quote:

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This is so stupid its unfathomable.

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this thread is a good example that MSB posters are the only people dumber than NFL coaches when it comes to analytics.

the math is overwhelmingly in favor of going for 2. so much so that even the most stubborn coaches realize it is so much of a mathematical advantage that it makes you an idiot to not go for 2 after scoring a td to cut the lead to 8.

"Chris didn't go through all the math on tv because it's a little too much to explain on tv. I will assume it's 50% on the 2-pt conversion to simplify the math but as was said on the broadcast it's about 55%

Assume the bucs score two tds:

95% they make both fgs: multiply by 50% when you go to OT. 47% chance of winning

Go for two:

get the two points conversion on the first try. Kick the FG on the second. 50% of the time you win.

Miss the first 2 point conversion. Make the second one. 50% * 50% ~ 25% of the time you go to OT. And 50/50 shot there. = 12.5% win 12.5 % loss

Miss both 2 pt conversions 50%*50% 25% loss

Final tally you have 62.5% chance of a win and a 37.5% chance to lose. And it's actually slight better because it's more likely to get the 2 pt conversion."