re: Let's unpack the NIL problem shall we?

There are so many ways this can go it makes your head spin. A participant in any spectator sport is an entertainer who directly or indirectly brings revenues to the university and can thus be considered employees deserving of compensation. Even the 4th stringers on the sideline are part of the show attracting the 90k ticket-buying fans in the stands so paying every player a base salary does make sense. Previously, the scholarships to attend classes, get free tutors and earn degrees were considered adequate compensation. Not any more - the market has changed.

A philosophy major can transfer with their credits to another school whenever they want - it is a free country. However, they are not employees of the school. Any pro entertainment sports league with employees is governed by rules, often to promote parity to sustain as much broad consumer interest as possible and maximize revenues. This is a business strategy, not a “woke equity play”.

As of now, the NCAA does have jurisdiction to set rules on transfers, caps on benefits provided by the schools, etc. However, NIL is no different than the endorsement money Eli Manning gets for being photographed wearing a particular wristwatch. That is free game capitalism governed by the ability to connect willing buyers with willing sellers.

I personally think NIL collectives aren’t really different than boosters contributing to an athletic department who installs sleeping pods in a locker room to entice future recruits to come entertain that school’s fans and make more money.

To sum up: I can envision the NCAA clamping down on portal movement once it starts eroding fan interest and tv ratings dip ~20%. I can see them allow and encourage extra school-provided benefits (regulated cash base salaries) for kids that sign 3-year contracts (non-transfer scholarships) with 4th and 5th year options to transfer. I can see schools adopting rules that say once you enter the portal there is no stepping back out of it - no soliciting higher pay each and every year like the Bama players are doing.

I can also see the top ~50 schools split off and make an independent “free agent league” completely outside any NCAA structure.

Bottom line: Once they allow for the complete elimination of the real or imagined bond of similar school spirit and loyalty, I will stop watching. They are killing their own golden goose…