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re: The math for buying a home no longer works, per WSJ

Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:35 pm to
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
22900 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

Don't buy houses you can't afford and that are over priced, and this current income to cost ratio wouldn't exist.


Nobody wants to live or raise a family in the neighborhoods that currently have $90K homes for sale.
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25415 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

So you are forced outward geographically.


Cities can either redevelop their cores to offer more housing or they can invest in infrastructure to better link outlying areas to their major employment centers in the city.

Doing neither risks stagnation and the economic competitiveness of the city. The preference of inner city redevelopment vs sprawling growth sort of changes every couple of decades. Explosive suburban growth was very much a thing in the 1960s-1980s. Then we saw at least moderate redevelopment of the cities between the 1990s and 2010s. Now the pendulum has swung back for a lot of valid reasons towards growth in outlying areas. It will probably change again once we figure out how to make our cities safer and more affordable.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25884 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

It's hard to change the format of older single family neighborhoods that were developed in the 1930s-1980s, and frequently there are zoning laws and historic preservation requirements that limit what can be done to those older neighborhoods.

Greater Atlanta doesn't give a shite about homes from the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s.
There has been a huge influx of McMansions in those older neighborhoods that locate inside and just outside the perimeter over the past 20 years.

But I agree with pretty much everything else in your post.

I've got a son in college and I've been watching the market closely in the Marietta/Sandy Springs area.
And townhomes/condos come available all the time under $200k in great condition.
Some on this board will bitch about a family of 4 trying to "survive" in a townhouse as if the homes built in the 50s with the exact same square footage never existed.
Posted by Pikes Peak Tiger
Colorado Springs
Member since Jun 2023
4073 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

Also, I’ve been saying for years that there are an assload of affordable houses, they’re just in neighborhoods where people don’t want to live. Addressing this issue would bring housing prices down also


Some people say buying those affordable houses in bad neighborhoods is racist.
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25415 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

There has been a huge influx of McMansions in those older neighborhoods that locate inside and just outside the perimeter over the past 20 years.


Yeah I've seen that too. And that doesn't help with the housing problem.

Atlanta needs increased housing supply in those areas. Replacing an old single family home with another (albeit nicer) single family home doesn't do very much to solve the affordability crisis other than drawing high income homeowners inwards and leaving the suburbs to the middle class. That style of redevelopment does contribute additional property tax revenue to the local government and doesn't consume any additional resources so obviously it's desirable to the politicians. But it doesn't increase housing supply unless there's some kind of infill development (Atlanta does a lot of that too).

A lot of towns need to do what Houston did in some areas where an old, obsolete single family home gets torn down and replaced with 3-5 townhomes.
Posted by 904
Forever under I-10
Member since Dec 2009
792 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Okay what's hilarious about that suggestion for people who are priced out of more expensive neighborhoods?


It may work for a few, but it would lead to a very boring life for most.

We have friends who did this and moved to a bunch of land an hour north in the sticks (except they bought a house instead of a trailer). They enjoy it because they like to work on their acres of property up there, but our friend group never sees them anymore. They have a couple neighbors they hang out with and that's it, which is sufficient for them. But we and all of our friends are more social who enjoy amenities that only a city offers, and ultimately wouldn't be happy living so far out. I know firsthand. I basically lived in trailers in the oil field for weeks at a time for 5 years in my early 20's. It was extremely isolating.

So yeah, it's pretty easy to see why moving to a trailer on a tract of land far from town is not a reasonable suggestion for just about anyone who grew up in a city or suburb.
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25415 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

Some people say buying those affordable houses in bad neighborhoods is racist.



If we could make those neighborhoods safer.....it would vastly increase affordable housing supply nearer to our city centers.

It has to happen eventually. We should stop clinging to policies that make it economically unfeasible because it disrupts the political makeup of an area.

Also Louisiana needs to ditch that homestead exemption BS.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35573 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:51 pm to
I just looked on zillow and and there’s a 2.25 acre lot for 110k in Colyell, Livingston Parish.


That’s a 2.5-3 hour roundtrip commute to BR during the week.

Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
18771 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:54 pm to
Well, the math for renting is worse.
Posted by 904
Forever under I-10
Member since Dec 2009
792 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

That by definition is a demand issue.


Once the affordable houses have already been bought and are no longer on the market and the pool of potential homes being bought and sold by individuals have shrunk as a result, I'd say it then becomes a supply issue (assuming these companies aren't going to offload a lot of property anytime soon). But it's kinda two sides of the same coin I guess.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90977 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:56 pm to
You vill own nothing
You vill eat the bugs
You vill be happy
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25415 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

It may work for a few, but it would lead to a very boring life for most.



That's a preference. Life is what you make of it. If you want to be boring, you can be boring. If you want to enjoy yourself...you will. You can be happy or miserable almost anywhere.

quote:

But we and all of our friends are more social who enjoy amenities that only a city offers, and ultimately wouldn't be happy living so far out.


Those amenities are luxuries. They aren't necessities. In many cases - young people can't have all of that and still have an affordable house AND a short commute.

quote:

So yeah, it's pretty easy to see why moving to a trailer on a tract of land far from town is not a reasonable suggestion for just about anyone who grew up in a city or suburb.


It's perfectly reasonable. Just because people don't want to entertain the idea of living farther away from the amenities doesn't mean it's not a valid alternative for many. In fact a lot of people would be better off if they recognized that they don't really need a lot of things that urban living offers. Just because that's what they are accustomed to doesn't mean that life will continue to be that way.

quote:

I basically lived in trailers in the oil field for weeks at a time for 5 years in my early 20's. It was extremely isolating.


I imagine having zero discretionary income after dumping everything into an house you can't afford is also isolating.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90977 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

Don't buy houses you can't afford and that are over priced, and this current income to cost ratio wouldn't exist.


I think investment groups buying homes above property value have caused a lot of this, not individuals
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25884 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:00 pm to
quote:


A lot of towns need to do what Houston did in some areas where an old, obsolete single family home gets torn down and replaced with 3-5 townhomes.

That's where you run into problems.
The mcmansion doesn't want 5 townhouses next door.
So they fight the zoning variance.
And I don't blame them. They live there too (and first).
quote:

But it doesn't increase housing supply unless there's some kind of infill development (Atlanta does a lot of that too).

The challenge inside Atlanta is twofold.
They are competing with commercial interests for the same land (i.e. land for large attached multifamily property).
And the city is requiring designated low income housing areas as part of those developments. Red tape limits the amount of developers looking to get in bed with the government on a project. And it Jacks up the price of the non-regulated homes as part of the development.
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
31337 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Some people say buying those affordable houses in bad neighborhoods is racist.


Affordable homes does not automatically mean a bad or unsafe neighborhood.

Take for example Sheboygan, WI, a nice, safe city with about 50,000 people right on the shores of Lake Michigan. I just pulled up Zillow and there are dozens of homes in the $150k-$250k range.

An example: LINK

And that's just one random city I pulled up. Obviously there are thousands more like it across the country.

Yes, rates are high. When people vote differently they will come back down and people can refinance.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 1:08 pm
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25884 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

Once the affordable houses have already been bought and are no longer on the market and the pool of potential homes being bought and sold by individuals have shrunk as a result, I'd say it then becomes a supply issue (assuming these companies aren't going to offload a lot of property anytime soon). But it's kinda two sides of the same coin I guess.

No one is offloading houses.

You can't wag your finger at investors when homeowners with 3% interest rates don't want to sell either.

The investors is a demand side issue.
The lack of resale from anyone is a supply side issue.

It is exactly why developers are willing to pay above market (limited supply from all owners).
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
7604 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

At current rates, the average household could spend more than 60% of its monthly income on mortgage payments, assuming a 10% down payment, per Creditnews.


Does that include insurance?


Once you add homeowners, auto insurance, health insurance, utilities, food, etc., the average American is tapped out.
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
One State Solution
Member since May 2012
55913 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

Sheboygan, WI, a nice, safe city with about 50,000 people right on the shores of Lake Michigan.
poor with few career opportunities

average household income is significantly less than the US average
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
15552 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

Don't buy houses you can't afford and that are over priced, and this current income to cost ratio wouldn't exist.
As a realtor I can tell you that would cut the sales in this country by a minimum of 25%.

I tell people constantly not to overextend themselves, but few listen.
Posted by bulltiger91
Member since Jul 2018
123 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

quote:
Don't buy houses you can't afford and that are over priced, and this current income to cost ratio wouldn't exist.


Seems like you're missing the point of this thread.

The average hope price is 400+k
Median income *now* isn't able to support buying at the average house price

Has nothing to do with buying outside your means brah.


Yeah that one sailed over ole boom's head. Anything that's "affordable" is under an overpass or in the war zone that is North BR.
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