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Started By
Message
re: Number of Home sales plummet...Prices of homes sold hit another record high.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:02 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:02 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:
large commercial real estate lenders
Commercial real estate has been teetering since Covid, if not before.
You need a captive audience in places like Manhattan for any business to succeed there simply because the rates are fricking insane. If people aren’t working in Manhattan but, instead, telecommuting, all that office space is worthless and most of the businesses catering to those office workers are fricked.
1
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:05 am to Centinel
Math is hard 
.
.This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 11:08 am
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:05 am to teke184
I edited my post, but I meant to say residential.
I have access to both right now. Like you said commercial has been bad. But these residential companies I have access too are also starting to worry.
I have access to both right now. Like you said commercial has been bad. But these residential companies I have access too are also starting to worry.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:06 am to NYNolaguy1
See my edit. I can't math good today.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:07 am to Dawgfanman
What's interesting about your chart and the peak in around '07 is that the chart is for new home starts meaning permits pulled. Many of those in that time never got completed.
Do you have the same chart for completions?
Do you have the same chart for completions?
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:12 am to stout
quote:
stout
My bad bro...I should have asked permission first
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:14 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:raises hand.
Whats really complicating this is the number of houses that have <3% interest rates that have no inclination to neither move nor sell.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:16 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:
But these residential companies I have access too are also starting to worry.
The interest rates on the loan have been jacked up so much that their risk portfolio is all fricked up.
This means fewer qualifying candidates, which is bad. It may also mean a LOT of political pressure to give loans to people who don’t deserve it, which can make 2008 look like nothing.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:17 am to stout
quote:
Do you have the same chart for completions?
Can’t find one for same timeframe. Google has an onslaught of charts for all this but can’t find completions over long term like that one.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:17 am to sidewalkside
And the proletariat slobs were told rhinovirus was going be their undoing.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:26 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Can’t find one for same timeframe. Google has an onslaught of charts for all this but can’t find completions over long term like that one.
Gotcha.
I know you are trying to point out that we are still below the peak of the subprime time frame but nothing compares to that time. I lived it and built numerous specs and 3 small subdivisions during that time. It was glorious until it wasn't
Even though we are still below that peak, we have still built a lot during the last 5 years and will continue to do so. Not saying we kept up with demand but we have put a dent into it. The demand is artificial anyway because I don't think there are shortages to the degree we have seen if STRs never come into existence.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:26 am to secfballfan
quote:
One major issue, we are WAY underbuilt for the future. After 2008 collapse construction of single frailly homes went way down and has not kept up with population. It will take years of building to meet the needs. We may get a collapse, but the long term is still very bullish for home builders
There were also a PILE of builders who went out of the business and therefore there is less competition in the business. Fewer builders means higher prices. Fewer builders and larger builders means smaller operators take it on the chin when buying material and hiring subs. That also allowed players in the industry to make subtle zoning changes and building code changes which drove up their profits and the cost of homes without doing a damned thing for consumers...and most consumers are completely unaware. Zoning and building code changes have increased the cost of new construction far more than increased interest rates and demand, both of which have done substantial damage to home affordability.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:27 am to teke184
quote:Exactly. Just read through this full memo detailing how the borrowers on these residential loan are having trouble selling the homes they are building . Average time to sell has increased about 60 days.
The interest rates on the loan have been jacked up so much that their risk portfolio is all fricked up.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:30 am to AwgustaDawg
quote:
Zoning and building code changes have increased the cost of new construction far more than increased interest rates and demand, both of which have done substantial damage to home affordability.
I said this months ago on here and people ignored it. It's a huge factor in the leaps and bounds of price increases over the last decade or so.
The funny thing about the codes too is that (here in LA anyway) stronger code compliance should have had an impact on lowering insurance premiums yet hasn't
So now you have a house that cost more to build and don't get much of a break on your insurance. It's a double screwing.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:34 am to CootDisCootDat
quote:
quote:
Whats really complicating this is the number of houses that have <3% interest rates that have no inclination to neither move nor sell
2.36% here, sorry for partyin’!
11 years left.
1.64%. Have 27 years left. Best decision in real estate we ever made...came damned close to paying cash or paying about 60% down...instead, gave it a thought and based on the reaction to Covid paid 10% down and got a 30 year fixed mortgage at 1.64% for 30 years. Figured inflation would get out of control with the amount of money being tossed at folks in 2020. Wasnt wrong. Will NEVER pay a penny extra on that money....I don't know why they bother to charge anything to be honest. Down side would have been no tax write off but that is more or less meaningless today with the amount of standard deductions and caps on real estate costs. We are retiring in 4-7 years and when we do we have a place on the lake we are building slowly, out of pocket, and will put this pile of bricks on the rental market. Rent in our area on our house would be a little more than double our mortgage payment. We will NEVER sell that cash cow....that $2500 cash a month will be very nice in retirement.../.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:26 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Whats really complicating this is the number of houses that have <3% interest rates that have no inclination to neither move nor sell.
Those mortgages are costing the banks a lot of money, and with a liquidity crunch going on at the moment there's not a lot of room to compel/give the homeowners a hair cut and buy them out.
I refied almost 2 years ago into a 2% 15 year mortgage. I have NO incentive to refi again or pay off early. 2% is practically free money. Wife has a small pension that covers the monthly note and we are both still working so you are absolutely talking about my situation.
Just wish I had cashed out all the equity when we refied and just invested it in an index fund!
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:55 pm to stout
quote:
The inventory issue will soon not be a factor.
The issue is how folks are going to get approved then pay.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:04 pm to sidewalkside
Biden's America
Posted on 10/31/23 at 1:39 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
Imagine what’s gonna happen when the fed folds to the government for the 2024 election and lowers the interest rate.
It’s pathetic our economy is manipulated to benefit Democrat Party, even to the point it ultimately ends in disaster for all of us.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 2:13 pm to sidewalkside
Sept Oct nov numbers will see a decline in home prices in many areas.
Homes are sitting on the market, especially in the higher end.
If you have the money, now is a great time to be buying. Even with a loan, it’s good. Do an adjustable loan.
Rates will eventually come back down. Maybe not to 2-3% but when they get in the 5% region, buyers will flood the market and prices will rocket up.
I seen it happen before. This is no different
Homes are sitting on the market, especially in the higher end.
If you have the money, now is a great time to be buying. Even with a loan, it’s good. Do an adjustable loan.
Rates will eventually come back down. Maybe not to 2-3% but when they get in the 5% region, buyers will flood the market and prices will rocket up.
I seen it happen before. This is no different
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