re: Car insurance question

Everything is state and zip code specific.

You may even have claims forgiveness depending on how long you've been with Progressive.

As for car rates in general:
You could get a 10-20% increase with no accidents (out of the blue).
Losses/inflation are/is that bad for insurance companies.

I'd guess that you would see a 20% increase for 3 years. Additional increase for 2 more.

You payback about $550 a year for 3 years. Maybe $300 a year for 2 more.
Round numbers up because the base rate (with no accidents) is likely to be going up anyway.

One big drawback is that you get stuck with Progressive. Shopping for new rates are typically 50% worse after an accident like that. And that could last anywhere from 3 to 6 years depending upon an who is underwriting.

Do you have any teenagers?
Any need to add cars in the future?
That 20% increase would be against a higher number if your vehicle/driver situation changes.

If your situation is stagnant (not moving residences. Not changing vehicles/adding vehicles. Not adding drivers), I would probably file the claim.
$2500+ in pocket today is worth paying $2500 extra over the course of the next 5 years.

The other "catch" would be following this up with a ticket or 2nd accident. But that's another set of worries.