re: 10 yr yield going to 5%

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Game out the govt’s net interest expense at 10%. Now they’re paying $2T this year, deficit blows out another trillion, and there’s another trillion being paid which is essentially stimulus for the rich. Equities probably collapse (who’s gambling on AI with risk free 10% available?).

They’re done. The 4 decade bond bull is over as is the era of low inflation most of us grew up with.

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it's pretty scary to think we could be heading towards stagflation or worse. the market is just now coming to terms that rates are going to be higher for longer and I think consensus still has a ways to go to figure it out. as we move forward, the market is going to keep losing hope of rate cuts.

check the 10 yr chart. 1950-now in 3M intervals. the increase in the past 3 years is putting us on the same track as leading into the 1970s.