quote:
Arizona vs Brewers Brewers vs Dodgers Brewers vs Braves I assume betting $1000 on AZ and if they lose I’m down 1k but still have the Brewers bet. So now I bet $3k on dodgers…. And if they lose I’m down $4k but still have brewers bet. Then bet 5k on braves… and if I lose I’m down 9k but still have brewera bet?

Going to be very difficult to hedge this round by round.

Here is how it breaks down

Pre WC Round
Total Bet: $50
Total Potential Win: $10,800

WC Round
$1,000 Hedge vs. Dbacks (projected +125 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $9,800
Total Profit w/ Dbacks series win: $1,200

NLDS
$3,000 Hedge vs. Dodgers (projected -180 odds vs. MIL)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS win: $6,800
Total Profit w/ Dodgers series win: $616

NLCS
$5,000 Hedge vs. Braves (projected -200 odds vs. Brewers)
Remaining Potential Win w/ WS Win: $1,800
Total Profit w/ Braves series win: -$1,550

You are losing cash in this scenario if they lose to the Braves in the NLCS and you are also extremely exposed entering the WS. You would essentially have somewhere around a -475 ticket on the Brewers ($9,000 bet to win $1,800) in the WS when they will likely be underdogs to Houston, Tampa or Baltimore in that round too.

Cash it now (or after they clinch the central) if you are concerned about locking in profit and put $50 or $100 on them to win the WS.

Your other option is letting it ride. I don’t think you are going to get to a profitable hedging opportunity unless they get a series lead in the NLCS or possibly after the Dodgers series if the Braves are upset by somebody other than the Phillies in the other NLDS.

This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 7:18 am