re: Georgia - Biden +1 over Trump, DeSantis +3 over Biden

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TX

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For reference, Trump has never gotten more than 52% in Texas. He's even less popular now than he was in 2020. Him being at the top of the ticket along with Cruz, who is not very popular, in 2024 is the thing that heart attacks are made of. I think he wins the state and Cruz will outperform him, but man that's scary.

TX shouldn't be that close. Abbott isn't particularly popular and he just won 55-44. And there were Republicans who did better than he did. In 2020, there were over 300K voters who voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump. Flip those votes and TX is 55-44 or 55-43 in 2020.

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NC

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Trump has never gotten over 50% in NC. He got 49.8% in 2016 and 49.9% in 2020 and is even less popular now than he was in 2020. I think he loses NC by a point or two. He'll badly underperform Mark Robinson who will be running for Governor and Congressional R's will likely get more votes than him.