re: Southern Severe Weather Threat (Thursday/Friday)

Considerable differences between the NAM and the HRRR with the 00z runs.

The NAM has ongoing rain/storms in the afternoon/evening. At 6PM:


HRRR at 6PM:


The messiness of the NAM would definitely be preferred, both to limit daytime heating and to maybe crowd out any cells that try to form. The NAM has continued it's cold bias with it under doing temps by 7-8 degrees. HRRR gets temps to near 80°, where NAM keeps them in the lower 70s.

The concern, though, is that the HRRR is now showing an uncapped environment ahead of the main line and maybe a bit more pre-frontal activity. That is not what we want to see.

HRRR PDS sounding from east of Shreveport at 6pm:


The cap is gone, the hodograph looks violent, and that's a whole lot of streamwise vorticity. Not ideal, at all.