re: Southern Severe Weather Threat (Thursday/Friday)

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A significant threat for severe weather remains, so I’ll get right to it. There have been some subtle changes in model guidance over the last day, but nothing to really change the overall picture. The first runs of some of the higher resolution models seemed to be a bit slower and further north with the track of the main upper feature, but those appear to be joining the rest of the guidance on a slightly faster, and further south track. This all adds up to the potential for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. I think the main event will be from 8:00 PM Thursday until 2:00 AM Friday, and will fine tune timing as the event approaches.

SPC kept most of the area in a level 3/5 enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with the northern half of the area in the “hatched area” that indicates a 10% chance for significant severe weather. In this case, that would be damaging wind in excess of 75 mph, and the potential for tornadoes of EF2 strength or stronger. Any storms that are able to break the cap, and form out ahead of the main line of storms will have the potential to rapidly become supercells, and contain a tornado threat. The coverage on supercells is still in question, but by tomorrow morning, I should have a much better idea on that. For now, I think there is a good potential for a few of these supercells ahead of the main line. If those storms don’t materialize, the squall line will pack quite a punch with widespread wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and scattered areas of damaging wind in excess of 60 mph. There could also be tornadoes embedded in the squall line that, at least in some instances could be tough to warn. The line will be moving quickly, and in cases like this, with very strong wind shear, there are times where we see tornadoes spin up quite quickly. Hail is also a threat, but at this point is the lowest concern I have. I’m going to be setting up the stream today to make sure everything is working smoothly as I plan to be on the air plenty Thursday evening into Thursday night. As I said yesterday, now is the time to plan. If you live in a mobile home or camper, and have the ability to get to a more substantial structure, you want to do that before this event gets underway. These storms will be moving quite fast. Know where your place of shelter is in your home. Have the interior room on the lowest floor ready for the family to make a brief visit.

I know this one may sound a bit silly and extreme, but a batting helmet or bike helmet in the shelter is also a good precaution. I was watching a lecture on severe weather coverage by the great James Spann yesterday, and he mentioned that being the tool that could’ve saved the most lives in tornadoes. I’m not saying you have to walk around wearing one all day, but having one ready if you hear things changing rapidly could be a life saver. And yes, I’ve been doing this over 20 years, and I watch lectures and actual coverage of meteorologists I respect before an event approaches. OK, I watch that stuff all the time, but especially before an event. You have to stay sharp and keep learning in this field. I’ll put out a quick update this evening, but don’t expect to have a ton of new information until tomorrow morning when the real high resolution stuff starts coming in. I’ll be watching everything.

Remember, even in the worst outbreaks, a huge portion of the population will remain unaffected. I know that doesn’t help the storm anxiety for most, but it’s true. Your best weapon against that storm anxiety is to be as prepared as possible. Here’s hoping this event turns out to be a dud.

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