Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH/EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions, with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail all possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively
tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface
low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River
during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as
the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. Seasonably rich
low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector of the
developing cyclone through the period.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss region and parts of
the Southeast...
A regional severe thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from
the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions Thursday
into Thursday night. All severe hazards will be possible, including
the potential for widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes,
though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate buoyancy
across the moist warm sector, while deep-layer shear will steadily
increase through the day as a 80-100 kt midlevel jet approaches from
the west. The coverage and timing of convection remains somewhat
uncertain, with stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain west
of the warm sector for much of the day. Discrete supercell
development will be possible near the ArkLaTex vicinity by late
afternoon into the evening, as a low-level jet becomes increasingly
intense near/after 00Z. Any sustained supercells would pose a strong
tornado risk as low-level shear increases with time, along with the
potential for hail. More widespread development is expected along
the surging cold front across parts of north/central TX by evening.
The frontal convection will spread quickly eastward, posing a threat
of potentially widespread damaging wind and a continued tornado
threat.

Some portion of this area may eventually require a categorical
upgrade, if confidence increases regarding a corridor of
strong-tornado and/or significant-wind potential.

The eastward-surging frontal convection may tend to weaken with time
by early Friday morning across eastern MS/western AL, as the primary
mid/upper-level system begins to move northeastward away from the
region, though very strong deep-layer flow/shear will continue to
support a threat of damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes
through the end of the period.