re: Southern Severe Weather Threat (Thursday/Friday)

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Another run of the models, and more of the same in the forecast. First off, SPC has continued with the 30% risk for severe weather over our area on Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This isn’t surprising at all. I should note that 30% is as high as they will go in the 4-8 day range. That is a level 3 of 5 risk when using the scale we use for day 1 or 2, but I think this system has the potential to bring widespread severe weather, and the risk areas will increase accordingly in the next few days barring a major change in model data. Here is the current wording from The Storm Prediction Center for the areas they are highlighting on Thursday…

“ A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.”

As usual, I want to keep things honest and responsible here. There is always the potential for failure in a severe weather event. I’m trying to find some potential for this one to fade away, but so many factors are arguing for a high threat of severe weather. The upper level feature is incredibly strong, the surface low pressure is incredibly strong, wind shear is… you guessed it, incredibly strong, and there is plenty of instability in place for severe weather. These are all fairly basic ingredients, and I don’t want to get too far into the weeds since we are still 3 1/2 days out, but I want you to have the 7:00 PM Thursday until 2:00 AM Friday timeframe blocked off for weather watching. Since this is looking more and more like an after dark event, I’ll probably be streaming as opposed to chasing. Now is the time to consider your plan for going to stay with someone if you’re in a mobile home or camper. Chances are, you’ll be fine, but I get asked this often. An EF1 tornado hitting a house is a much different story than hitting a mobile home or camper. I’m not one to say you need to evacuate for every storm event, but with the high end potential on this one, if that is something you ever consider, you may want to start planning your Thursday evening destination. I probably won’t have a ton to add to this today, but will update if I see anything worth mentioning. I’m at the stage where I’m monitoring for model consistency, and waiting on the higher resolution models that will start coming in later today. I usually wait until I get a few runs of those as they can be a bit wonky on the first run that actually captures the event. Just know that I’m consuming every bit of data regarding this system, and will be as honest and forthright as I can.

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