re: If LSU is fortunate enough to win out and beat UGA in SEC championship

I think Tennessee is out no matter what.

Let's say this is you final rankings prior to conference championships

#1 Georgia 12-0
#2 Ohio State 12-0
#3 TCU 12-0
#4 Tennessee 11-1
#5 Oregon 11-1
#7 LSU 10-2
#7 USC 11-1
#8 Michigan 11-1

Post Conference championship games
The easy ones in this scenario:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 TCU 13-0 Big-12 champ

Now we have to figure it out

Oregon 12-1 Pac-12 champ
LSU 11-2 SEC champ
Clemson 12-1 blowout by ND champ
Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up
Tennessee 11-1

So let's talk about it:

Oregon:
Only loss is to a very good Georgia but since then they have turned their season around blew out and won their conference, and the craziest part is bo nix is a Heisman candidate.

LSU:
Lost by a blocked extra point in game 1 of the season. Was hot and cold to start. Got blewout by Tennessee at home after making tons of mistakes. Then proceeds to put on big boy pants, whoops Florida, embarrasses ole miss, shocks Bama, proceeds to swap up the trash at the end of the schedule before knocking off the unanimous #1 team in the country and won the SEC Championship game.

Clemson:
frick Clemson and Dabo Swiney's pity party. They just got blown out by the worst Notre Dame team in 10 years. Who cares if they won a cripple fight in the All Cripple Conference championship game.

Georgia:
They ANNIHILATED Oregon to open the season. Got lazy against a lot of really bad teams throughout the season but still won. Proceeded to Stomp Tennessee in November and went to the SEC championship game before losing to a surging LSU team.

Tennessee:
They beat by Bama as underdogs. Stomped an LSU team that wasn't playing consistently good football, but proceeded to be embarrassed by Georgia and missed the SEC championship game.

So with that said here are your picks for top 4 in my opinion:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 TCU 13-0 Big-12 champ
#3 Oregon 12-1 Pac 12 champ
#4 LSU 11-2 SEC champ

#5 Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up
#6 Tennessee 11-1
#7 Clemson 12-1 ACC champ
#8 Michigan 11-1

But let's say TCU drops a game, they haven't been a good team all year and have been squeaking games out. Being undefeated is the only thing propping their resume up right now:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 Oregon 12-1 Pac 12 champ
#3 LSU 11-2 SEC champ
#4 Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up

#5 Tennessee 11-1
#6 TCU 12-1 Big-12 champ
#7 Clemson 12-1 ACC champ
#8 Michigan 11-1

The CFP committee more credit for how good a team is playing in November vs how a team played in September and October. The SEC is also by far the best conference top to bottom in the country. Should LSU win the SEC championship game, the committee will be forced to place LSU above the team they beat and the team the runner up blew out. The committee will hold significantly more weight for LSUs win over Georgia, vs Tennessees October win over LSU. LSU will have beaten 2 top 10 teams and the #1 team in the country by the final week of the season. If LSU doesn't get in then no SEC team will.

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No chance the sec champion is being left out.

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That mentality is dumb. So, if lsu loses to arkansas, and still beats uga in atlanta, you think 3 loss lsu should get a playoff spot?

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Even two-loss LSU is not a given. Probably will because the teams ahead of LSU in other conferences are likely to drop games.

The concern is there are potentially two undefeated conference champs and a 1 loss conference champ, whose only loss is to Georgia, ahead of us in the standing already. Then you would have a 1-loss Tennessee, who stomped LSU, plus a 1-loss Georgia, probably ranked #1 before the SECCG, that we would also have to jump.

I think and hope if we win out, we are in the playoff (with possible wins over three top 7 teams). Winning out will be very tough, but it is possible. We have all seen before how tough end of the year SEC road games can be. UGA in Atlanta will be tough, they have a great D Line. But we have seen this before too and have performed well.

Also, I think the committee will not want to put three SEC teams in the playoff, they would never hear the end of that. So, I don't think that is happening.

The final rankings will be
1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. LSU
4. Georgia
Or
1. Michigan
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
4. LSU