lets wait and see what happens in two weeks:

election results for House and Senate
CPI is probably going to go back up
Fuel is back up, therefore EVERYTHING is going back up
Winter heating bills with fossil fuels going back up
Somehow the inflation reduction act is going to get funded.
student loan payoff

Has anybody shaken an 8 ball and found POSITIVE stuff about to happen to see a pivot from fed or think we see capitulation anytime soon?

I DON'T, therefore, my cash will probably sit on the sidelines a little further unless I get an opportunity to buy at S&P levels under $2900, then I will probably go back in and simply WAIT.

3 ...

Report Post

Posted by Diseasefreeforall

Member since Oct 2012

5608 posts

Posted on 10/25/22 at 7:16 pm to oneg8rh8r

Trying to time the market is exhausting.

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by UpstairsComputer

Prairieville

Member since Jan 2017

1590 posts

Posted on 10/25/22 at 7:36 pm to oneg8rh8r

I’ve shaken the magic 8-ball and asked it if the fed keeps going are they going to break something.

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by Niner

Member since Apr 2019

2026 posts

Posted on 10/26/22 at 8:45 am to oneg8rh8r

quote:
my cash will probably sit on the sidelines a little further unless I get an opportunity to buy at S&P levels under $2900

Just doing the math, that means you believe the S&P 500 will experience a decline of over 44% before you get back in?

That's happened a grand total of three times since 1940 (Jan '73 - Oct '74, Mar '00 - Oct '02, Oct '07 - Mar '09).

Some additional context: if you are wrong, and let's say the S&P 500 flirts with a 30% drop instead, do you know the average 5-year return of the S&P 500 after a 30% drop? About 10% annualized / 50% cumulative.

To say the odds are against your success would be an understatement.

0 ...

Report Post

Money Talk - Replies to Post

Return To Board

Page 1

Return To Board