re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

Wednesday could be significant and more widespread than this last one if models keep trending the way they are

quote:

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Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists. As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist.

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I’ll be driving back from Venice, La Wednesday morning from a fishing trip. I could come back Tuesday night and get home late as shite. Might be better to do that