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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:05 pm to Hateradedrink
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:05 pm to Hateradedrink
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 1:21 pm
7
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:21 pm to ColtRange
Can they launch those weapons from the Caspian sea?
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:21 pm to ColtRange
quote:
They've been incredibly restrained when it comes to hitting civilian targets.
They’ve turned civilian cities into rubble. I don’t know what rock you live under, but you’ve obviously not been following along.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:31 pm to TBoy
quote:
They’ve turned civilian cities into rubble.
As opposed to military cities?
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:37 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
I’m just curious what everyone thinks the US response would be to 200k dead.
We would have freed the shite out of you by 10k. The only reason Vietnam happened the way it did is because LBJ was a pussy, just like Putin is.
We would have freed the shite out of you by 10k. The only reason Vietnam happened the way it did is because LBJ was a pussy, just like Putin is.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:43 pm to ColtRange
quote:
Targets in Odessa were hammered for four straight nights last week and I don't recall seeing that a single civilian was killed
Well that's just falae
quote:
July 23, 2023 Russia struck Odessa, Ukraine, with a barrage of missiles overnight — the fifth day of attacks in a week for the embattled port city — killing one civilian and injuring 21 people, including four children,
LINK
quote:
JULY 20, 2023 Overnight, Russia launched 38 missiles and drones, with air defenses shooting down 18 of them, reported Reuters. The strike also killed at least three civilians and hurt at least eight others.
LINK
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:43 pm to ColtRange
quote:
Odessa were hammered for four straight nights last week and I don't recall seeing that a single civilian was killed.
+ 1,000 RUB deposited
Posted on 7/26/23 at 7:50 pm to ColtRange
Air defense has protected Kyiv from larger attacks with occasional damage, mostly from falling debris at that
Posted on 7/26/23 at 8:17 pm to ColtRange
quote:
You don't think Russia could turn Kyiv to rubble? They've been incredibly restrained when it comes to hitting civilian targets. Even when they hit a civilian building full of military equipment or troops...the whole western world bleeds for a week. Targets in Odessa were hammered for four straight nights last week and I don't recall seeing that a single civilian was killed. Russia hasn't even used an ODAB-500 bomb yet and they have a ton of them.
While it is true they haven't targeted heavily populated civilian structures en masse, we have seen them target infrastructure that civilians are dependent on repeatedly far more than Ukraine.
The follow on effects from such a campaign is not something that has been analysed in depth yet but when it is the conclusions will likely show casualties caused by it directly, and indirectly, were not insignificant.
https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/06/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-5-june-2023
Also we won't know until after the war the true civilian casualty scope as there are far too many variables for any accurate measure to be made yet. While the below UN report doesn't differentiate who inflicted the casualties, from my outlook none of them would have likely died in this way if Russia had not invaded.
quote:
From 24 February 2022, which marked the start of the large-scale armed attack by the Russian Federation, to 4 June 2023, OHCHR recorded 24,425 civilian casualties in the country: 8,983 killed and 15,442 injured. This included:
19,682 casualties (6,979 killed and 12,703 injured) in territory controlled by the Government when casualties occurred:
In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 9,877 casualties (4,081 killed and 5,796 injured); and
In other regions[2]: 9,805 casualties (2,898 killed and 6,907 injured).|
4,743 casualties (2,004 killed and 2,739 injured) in territory occupied by the Russian Federation when casualties occurred:
In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 3,202 casualties (716 killed and 2,486 injured); and
In other regions[3]: 1,541 casualties (1,288 killed and 253 injured).
OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Lysychansk, Popasna, and Sievierodonetsk (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.
If we take just the likely conservative civilian deaths inflicted indicated above on Ukraine held territory up till June 4th 2023 then it is over 13 deaths per day.
For comparison, while a different form of conflict, the number of civilians killed on both sides from April 2014 - December 2021 due to the Donbass war was 3404 or 1.2 a day. The bulk of these casualties occurred in the first 20 months (2969) and includes the 298 passengers killed in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
Civilian casualties for both sides had been significantly decreasing for years following the Minsk II agreements and between July 2019 till December 2021 (914 days) active casualties (direct fire, shelling, UAV) were at 104 for both sides 0r 0.12 a day.
Based on these figures alone, Russia's claims of protecting lives via their invasion is completely invalidated as by their own actions they have caused many orders of magnitude more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas_(2014%E2%80%932022)
https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf
Yes I know I have used both U.N. and Wikipedia sources - take it as you will, it is used for reference purposes on my end.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 8:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russian Telegram channel "Romanov," from @wartranslated:
What does any of that have to do with Russia's strategic bomber fleet?
Posted on 7/26/23 at 8:31 pm to WhereisAtlanta
ISW
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.
Russian sources provided a wide range of diverging claims as to the scale of both the attack and resulting Ukrainian losses, indicating that the actual results and Ukrainian losses remain unclear.
The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains.
Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that the attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflection in Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort. Today’s actions around Robotyne are likely the start of any “main thrust” Ukrainian forces might be launching, if US officials are correct, rather than the sum of such a thrust.
Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile strike largely aimed at rear areas in Ukraine on the night of July 26.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet is increasing military posturing in the Black Sea, likely in an attempt to set conditions to forcibly stop and search civilian vessels and exert increased control in the area.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on July 26 that it authorized another presidential drawdown to provide an additional $400 million of security assistance to Ukraine.
Russia continues to find ways to remind Armenia and Azerbaijan that Moscow’s military and diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus is necessary. The Russian government may have intended for the Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan trilateral meeting to reduce possible Iranian efforts to supplant Russian influence with Armenia by providing Shahed drones to Yerevan.
A prominent Kremlin-linked milblogger expressed his incredulity that the US has not provided Ukraine F-16 fighters yet and did not assess Russian deterrence or escalation cycle dynamics to be a factor.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporzhia Oblast on July 26 and have made advances in certain areas.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along at least three sectors of the front on July 26 and have advanced in certain areas.
Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces have begun using Russian-produced Shahed drones against Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities continue to pursue infrastructure projects in occupied areas to facilitate the economic integration of occupied Ukraine into the Russian system.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 8:43 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
If they could have, they would have.
We have been piling in air defense systems, should that stop Russia will own the sky.
Recognizing facts does not put one on a side it simply means they are a rational adult.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:58 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:Lots of people talk about how the 'upcoming' U.S. election could affect the Russia-Ukraine war--and it could. But whoever wins the 2024 U.S. national elections will take office a longer amount of time after today than the start of the Russian invasion was before today. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, 517 days ago. The next presidential inauguration will occur January 20, 2025, 544 days from now. In other words, in the timeline of this war, the next / possibly a new U.S. president taking office is a long way off.quote:The upcoming election in the U.S. is likely to play a key roll in continued U.S. support as the war will be used as a divisive issue.
If the political winds change in the West, the outlook for Ukraine would be grim.
No doubt politicians running for election / reelection behave somewhat differently, on a wide range of issues, than do those recently elected. No doubt politicians not reelected become somewhat 'wild cards' in the two-and-a-half months between the election and the end of their term. No doubt a different president and/or recomposed Congress could act differently toward Ukraine and Russia. But given how much time that is from now, IMOPO we're getting ahead of ourselves giving that so much consideration. IMOPO the media is trying to make this more about the importance of U.S. politics than the situation merits.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:01 pm to ColtRange
quote:
You don't think Russia could turn Kyiv to rubble? They've been incredibly restrained when it comes to hitting civilian targets. Even when they hit a civilian building full of military equipment or troops...the whole western world bleeds for a week. Targets in Odessa were hammered for four straight nights last week and I don't recall seeing that a single civilian was killed. Russia hasn't even used an ODAB-500 bomb yet and they have a ton of them.
I've literally seen better military tactics in the quad
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:09 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:Although Wendy Leach agrees with you, Harvey Manfredjinsinjin does not:
[Y]ou don’t have to go and announce to the world exactly where that force is going once it’s committed to battle.
YouTube
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:34 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
We have been piling in air defense systems, should that stop Russia will own the sky.
Did Russia have sustained air superiority before we gave Ukraine those air defense systems?
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:47 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
From 24 February 2022, which marked the start of the large-scale armed attack by the Russian Federation, to 4 June 2023, civilian 8,983 killed
So annualize that to 8,000 people.
In a country of 41 million, that's a murder rate of about 19.5 per 100,000.
In 2021, Washington DC had a murder rate of 30 per 100,000. Louisiana came in third behind Mississippi, at 21 per 100,000.
New Orleans has a murder rate of about 40 per 100,000.
(Someone please check my math.)
Posted on 7/27/23 at 2:42 am to NOLATiger163
quote:
Lots of people talk about how the 'upcoming' U.S. election could affect the Russia-Ukraine war--and it could. But whoever wins the 2024 U.S. national elections will take office a longer amount of time after today than the start of the Russian invasion was before today. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, 517 days ago. The next presidential inauguration will occur January 20, 2025, 544 days from now. In other words, in the timeline of this war, the next / possibly a new U.S. president taking office is a long way off.
No doubt politicians running for election / reelection behave somewhat differently, on a wide range of issues, than do those recently elected. No doubt politicians not reelected become somewhat 'wild cards' in the two-and-a-half months between the election and the end of their term. No doubt a different president and/or recomposed Congress could act differently toward Ukraine and Russia. But given how much time that is from now, IMOPO we're getting ahead of ourselves giving that so much consideration. IMOPO the media is trying to make this more about the importance of U.S. politics than the situation merits.
I pay little attention to media beyond getting a general flow of narratives.
Like it or not the U.S. has played a key roll in supporting Ukraine in the amount of material provided, though others have taken the lead in breaking several barriers the U.S. did not want to be seen doing first.
Because of this, a continuation or change in its continued support will likely be seen as a bell weather for the rest of NATO - though several European countries are starting to stand on their own more than I expected early on.
While it is very early to make any accurate analysis on what will happen post election or who will even be elected, if the past decade or so is any measure then Ukraine conflict will be politicised to beat each other up over and this is more where my comment was directed.
The political pressure exerted in the lead up to the election could see shifts in support beforehand depending on where public feeling is. Altruism plays a poor second to retaining power more often than not unfortunately.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 5:57 am
Posted on 7/27/23 at 3:27 am to NOLATiger163
quote:
No doubt politicians running for election / reelection behave somewhat differently, on a wide range of issues, than do those recently elected. No doubt politicians not reelected become somewhat 'wild cards' in the two-and-a-half months between the election and the end of their term. No doubt a different president and/or recomposed Congress could act differently toward Ukraine and Russia. But given how much time that is from now, IMOPO we're getting ahead of ourselves giving that so much consideration. IMOPO the media is trying to make this more about the importance of U.S. politics than the situation merits.
IMOPO, there will be little difference in our approach to Ukraine before and after the 2024 election. We will see it to its' conclusion.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:14 am to Mr Happy
quote:
So annualize that to 8,000 people.
In a country of 41 million, that's a murder rate of about 19.5 per 100,000.
In 2021, Washington DC had a murder rate of 30 per 100,000. Louisiana came in third behind Mississippi, at 21 per 100,000.
New Orleans has a murder rate of about 40 per 100,000.
(Someone please check my math.)
What relation do murder rates in the U.S. have to civilian deaths from a war in Ukraine?
You seem to be saying the number of apples in specific U.S. cities is worse than number of oranges in the Ukraine even though they have no correlation beyond statistical sizes which trivialises all those deaths regardless of location or method.
If you want to look at it as pure statistics that are related using the per 100,000 methodology, then how about considering the below question?
Is Russia's claim for going into Ukraine to stop the slaughter of civilians in the Donbass justified by a death rate of 0.44 per 100,000 (65 deaths annualised at 26.6 against an approximate population of 6,100,00 in the Donbass), or a casualty rate of 2.2 per 100,000 (364 casualties annualised at 134.5 against the above population number), especially as these numbers represent both sides rates combined?
Note: I have corrected my initial post as I had confused casualties with deaths for some of my numbers, they (should) now be correct.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 4:19 am
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