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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/20/23 at 6:57 pm to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3723 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Of course, that was Rybar's report from 11:30 PM last night, and since then, it has become clear that Russia's counterattack to retake the village has failed and Ukraine has kept control of it.

What's the use of daily update if they put out info that has been known to be incorrect for over 10 hours?


Just FYI
quote:

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on June 20 ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.



ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations with a relatively high degree of rhetorical coherence, suggesting that the MoD has learned from its past mishandling of the information space during previous Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike on Ukraine on June 20.

Russian forces continued a slightly intensified pace of ground attacks near Kreminna.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Kremlin continues to lower the requirements for Russian military service in an effort to increase recruitment.

Russia aims to use the annual International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2023” to diversify and expand its defense industrial base (DIB).
Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
15050 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

Now Ukraine is going for punishment.


As well they should.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
58128 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:14 pm to
quote:

Is Ukraine still winning?


Considering everyone was predicting they'd fall within two weeks of Russia invading and would be a client state by now one could absolutely argue that in a sense they are currently winning.

They are fighting for their right to exist as an independent nation. Every day they continue to do so is a victory.
This post was edited on 6/20/23 at 7:16 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17970 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on June 20 ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.


Doesn't make it any better. There were all kinds of reports early this morning that the Russian counterattack had failed, and Ukraine had retained control of the village. I posted exactly that at 6:56 AM CDT.

By ISW's cutoff time, there were even videos from the Ukrainian MoD showing that the Russian counterattack had failed.

ISW just ignored all of those reports to stick with Rybar's report from 11:30 PM.


EDIT: I just think that the people who get paid to do this for a living ought to be able to do better than me, scrolling through Twitter for an hour.
This post was edited on 6/20/23 at 7:19 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17970 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:46 pm to
LSUPilot07, curious to get your take on this story from The Drive.



quote:

At least one Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter is flying with what appears to be a new and previously unseen kind of underwing pylon system. While we currently don’t know the exact purpose of this pylon, it raises some very interesting questions, especially bearing in mind the previous adaptations that have been made to the MiG-29 (and other Soviet-era combat aircraft) to allow them to carry new weapons of Western origin.




quote:

Especially intriguing is the origin of this photo. It was posted today to the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian Air Force, together with the caption “New day — new challenges!” That phrase could well suggest that some new kind of capability is being used. Either way, the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force chose to publicize this particular photo also indicates they are happy to show something of that new capability, whatever it might be.

The photo in question depicts the underside of an airborne MiG-29 with the full complement of six underwing pylons, but no armament attached to them. An external fuel tank is carried on the centerline. The jet has a distinctive off-white nose radome, suggesting the MiG is probably not one of those provided to Ukraine from Polish or Slovakian Air Force stocks.

Regardless of the origin of this particular MiG-29, the intriguing aspect of the photo is the appearance of the two extended inner underwing pylons, closest to the engine nacelles. Normally, these would be used for the AKU-470 launch rails that each accommodate a single R-27R (AA-10 Alamo) air-to-air missile (AAM), with semi-active radar guidance. Infrared-guided R-27Ts can also be carried but are rarely seen.

For close to a year, Ukrainian MiG-29s have also been using an ad-hoc pylon for the carriage of the U.S.-supplied AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM).

However, the pylons seen in this photo are not like either of those options. Key features are their length, or more particularly the degree to which they project out ahead of the wing leading edge. The color is also unusual, either a light gray or even white on the main part of the launch rail itself. There appear to be quadruple shackles on each pylon, of the kind normally associated with securing a heavier piece of ordnance. Finally, the pylon has a long shape with a rounded end cap that could be somewhat similar to something that would contain an electronic warfare emitter or passive radio frequency detector.

All in all, the photo suggests we are looking at a pylon that’s either associated with a new type of air-launched weapon that’s been introduced on the Ukrainian MiG-29 or that the pylon itself is of a new type that incorporates some kind of combat-related subsystem. Another very real possibility is that it packs both functions. Integrating electronic warfare and defensive countermeasures onto weapons pylons is a widely used concept.


What follows is a ton of speculation as to what it could be. It's an interesting mystery, which is no doubt exactly what the Ukrainian Air Force intended.

Posted by jacobforpresident
BR
Member since Sep 2009
59 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:47 pm to
They are opening a village in Russia for westerners. No one will miss you.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1306 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 7:58 pm to
Day 500 of the 3 day SMO.

Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2588 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

Especially intriguing is the origin of this photo. It was posted today to the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian Air Force, together with the caption “New day — new challenges!” That phrase could well suggest that some new kind of capability is being used. Either way, the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force chose to publicize this particular photo also indicates they are happy to show something of that new capability, whatever it might be.


I don't know anything about it but this might be related...

On June 19, the Ukrainian Air Force published a video of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter, in action in unspecified airspace, firing an air-to-air missile at an unidentified target. Some military analysts suggested the weapon was possibly an AIM-9 because some MiG-29s jets currently operated by the Ukrainian air force were donated by NATO members Poland and Slovakia, whose air forces modified the Soviet-era jets to launch NATO-standard missiles like the AIM-9. The missile in the video is blurred out and made unidentifiable on the official Air Force Twitter post.

The Kyiv Post


Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6871 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:09 pm to
I thought of the same video Cypher
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6871 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:24 pm to
The video that emerged yesterday showing the Ukranian SOF troops in the Russian trench, well one of the people they killed looked very similar to the Russian propagandist WarGonzo.

I don't know if he's dead or not, but it looks like this might be him.

https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1671048179549077508
quote:

Same helmet, same shirt, same ballistic vest, same trousers, same beard & characteristics, 0% knowledge of gunhandling or trench warfare.

There's NO way this is not Wargonzo. He is dead.




The same area
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1669628479984287744
quote:

Russian channels report active fighting in the area of Lobkove-P'yatykhatky, Zaporizhzia axis.

WarGonzo reports that the AFU has advanced towards P'yatykhatky and there is a battle on the western outskirts of the small village.



Gonzo has been a very loud pro Putin voice in the Russian MilBlogger space. It's a loss for them if true.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1306 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:29 pm to
I saw this and don’t believe it.

If it was true it wouldn’t matter, someone else would login to his bullshite and start posting
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
5765 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:31 pm to
Looks to me since it’s on the inside pylon it’s either for a 1000 or 2000 lb JDAM vs a 500 lb it’s or a EW jamming pod. You always want to carry your heaviest weight preferably underneath the aircraft or on your innermost wing rail but the Mig-29 almost always has to fly with a drop tank underneath due to their short range and Ukraine having to keep them further back from the front lines and no air to air refueling available so that innermost wing point is crucial to carry your heaviest payload. Your air to air missiles would be on the outside. If it’s for a jamming pod the big question is which one. For the moment I’m going to say it’s for heavy JDAM bombs but it’s not going to shock me one bit to hear about MiG-29s flying around with HARM missiles and jamming pods. I know there’s talk of AIM-9 sidewinders and that absolutely could be the modification but I believe they would do that modification closer to the outer edge of the wings since the sidewinder is not a heavy missile at all. We will know the answer shortly though.
This post was edited on 6/20/23 at 8:36 pm
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
35118 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:33 pm to
Why does he look like a younger red haired George r r Martin?
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
773 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:39 pm to
quote:

The video that emerged yesterday showing the Ukranian SOF troops in the Russian trench, well one of the people they killed looked very similar to the Russian propagandist WarGonzo.

I don't know if he's dead or not, but it looks like this might be him.


Hard to tell as the footage isn't brilliant though there are similarities. There hasn't been any real break in his telegram timeline, but as Haterade said, it would not be that hard for someone else to pick it up and it is likely it's a collaboration already.

It is also interesting that this footage in particular was (laughably) being used by Pro-Russian accounts that Ukraine had shot "unarmed" troops yesterday.

Edit: Corrected who said what.
This post was edited on 6/20/23 at 8:41 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17970 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:45 pm to
The WarGonzo thing is funny, because of all the "where's Zaluzhny" and "where's Budanov" stuff. It's almost certainly not him, though.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1306 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:49 pm to
That is what makes it funny

Also the dead Russian memes which I won’t post
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
5765 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 8:53 pm to
Looks like Russia tried to advance around Kreminna but didn’t have success. Kreminna is where a lot of the artillery coverage for Ukraine’s light troops in the area are from American lightweight M119 105 mm howitzers. The Ukrainians using them seem to love them for their accuracy and ease in moving as well as hiding them from drones. Now they have plenty of ammunition for the 105 mm guns wort the last couple aid packages so shell shortage shouldn’t be an issue with them.
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
35118 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

Why does he look like a younger red haired George r r Martin?


Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9632 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 9:09 pm to
How many more flights can it make?

LINK
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36140 posts
Posted on 6/20/23 at 9:11 pm to
Looks more like the red haired giantslayer who wanted a sword wife.
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