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Why are the polls wrong?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:12 am
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:12 am
In 2016 we heard from the MSM that "the polls were obviously wrong" .
If I remember correctly, Hillary was up about 5 points. And then she won the popular vote by about 2 points. So "the polls" ended up wrong by maybe 3 points.
But the MSM is now happy to report on polls showing Biden up 10 points. With no mention of how the polls might be wrong.
So a few questions:
1) pollsters aren't oblivious to their failures 4 years ago. Have they changed their methodology to correct the bias from 2016?
2) is it possible that the polls are even more wrong now than they were then?
3) Can anyone here explain Why there are inherent errors in polling when it comes to DJT? Do people just say they're voting for Biden and then go into the box and vote for Trump? Is it that simple?
4) as an extension, the polls seem to be very accurate on Senate and House and Gov races. Why are they correct there, and then wrong on the POTUS election?
Thanks for your input.
If I remember correctly, Hillary was up about 5 points. And then she won the popular vote by about 2 points. So "the polls" ended up wrong by maybe 3 points.
But the MSM is now happy to report on polls showing Biden up 10 points. With no mention of how the polls might be wrong.
So a few questions:
1) pollsters aren't oblivious to their failures 4 years ago. Have they changed their methodology to correct the bias from 2016?
2) is it possible that the polls are even more wrong now than they were then?
3) Can anyone here explain Why there are inherent errors in polling when it comes to DJT? Do people just say they're voting for Biden and then go into the box and vote for Trump? Is it that simple?
4) as an extension, the polls seem to be very accurate on Senate and House and Gov races. Why are they correct there, and then wrong on the POTUS election?
Thanks for your input.
35
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:12 am to No Colors
Bc the questions are wrong
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:14 am to No Colors
quote:
Have they changed their methodology to correct the bias from 2016?
No they actually doubled down
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:14 am to Wtodd
quote:
the questions are wrong
Ok, how are they wrong? And if it's that easy, then why haven't they fixed it?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:15 am to No Colors
They can't detect the "shy Trump voters" Trafalfar found out how.
All of this is on the web, you seem to be coy or just dumb
All of this is on the web, you seem to be coy or just dumb
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:16 am to No Colors
quote:
Ok, how are they wrong?
They ask the wrong questions
quote:
And if it's that easy, then why haven't they fixed it?
Bc the media is pushing Biden just like they did with Hillary.
The question should be; Who the frick are you voting for?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:16 am to Strannix
quote:
No they actually doubled down
Why would they do that? Most respected polls are run by statisticians, not politicos. (The politicos hire the pollsters). Why would they double down on methodology that has been proven to be flawed?
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:16 am to No Colors
quote:
And if it's that easy, then why haven't they fixed it?
Because polls are almost exclusively bolshevist psyops, voter suppression
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:16 am to No Colors
They are showing Biden up big because on election night Trump will be winning the key states. As they manufacture votes with Biden ultimately winning the EC, they’ll point back to the polls and say they were right. No need to look into how or why there were more votes cast than registered voters in some districts.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:17 am to Strannix
quote:
All of this is on the web, you seem to be coy or just dumb
I am neither coy, nor dumb. On this issue, I am just ignorant.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:18 am to No Colors
Then go read
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:18 am to No Colors
1) Bc most poll are over sampling Dems by +9... Do you really think 9% more Dems will vote than Republicans, especially in states outside of CA, NY, IL?
2) Trump supporters aren’t responding to poll inquiries and/or are lying. This is a well known fact.
2) Trump supporters aren’t responding to poll inquiries and/or are lying. This is a well known fact.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:19 am to No Colors
I’ll pretend that the polls aren’t intentionally manipulated to create a narrative and give a plausible explanation for how, despite their best efforts to be accurate, are just wrong.
The democrats and the media have literally called Trump supporters racists, nazis, etc. people are being attacked for wearing Maga gear. People’s homes are being vandalized for Trump signs. And your job at work is at risk if you express the “wrong” political view.
I’m a huge Trump supporter. And I wouldn’t answer a pill question. There are millions like me.
The democrats and the media have literally called Trump supporters racists, nazis, etc. people are being attacked for wearing Maga gear. People’s homes are being vandalized for Trump signs. And your job at work is at risk if you express the “wrong” political view.
I’m a huge Trump supporter. And I wouldn’t answer a pill question. There are millions like me.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:19 am to No Colors
They are trying to will Trump out at this point.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:19 am to No Colors
quote:
And if it's that easy, then why haven't they fixed it?
When you’re pining for a specific result, why change your methodology?
They want Biden to win so they chart their questions accordingly and dismiss positives for Trump. Oversampling Dems should also be notes bigly
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:20 am to No Colors
Polls can be manipulated to reach a desired outcome. Combine that with a biased media only reporting polls that favor Biden, in an effort to discourage Trump voters from voting.
I just find it hard to believe Biden is up by MORE than Clinton was at this point.
I just find it hard to believe Biden is up by MORE than Clinton was at this point.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:21 am to No Colors
Because they don't try to draw responses from the whole of the state. Women answer polls at about a 70:30 clip compared to men. Middle class men are far less likely amongst all men to respond. They don't necessarily weight for geography and education. They are paid for by media organizations that despise the president and these early polls don't go down as the poll of record.
Polls are predictably tightening as we all knew.
Polls are predictably tightening as we all knew.
This post was edited on 10/21/20 at 7:24 am
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:21 am to No Colors
When your numerator is a lie and your denominator is a lie, the resulting fraction is ALWAYS a lie.
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:22 am to No Colors
quote:
Why would they double down on methodology that has been proven to be flawed?
Because there is a political bias but the people performing the polls. All the media companies paying for the polls want Trump to lose. Most of the polls are doing this to disenfranchise the Trump voters to make them think Trump won’t win and to reduce the number of Trump supporters going out to vote.
At one point the pollsters were over sampling Democrats and reducing the sampling of independents, I don’t know if that is still happening
Posted on 10/21/20 at 7:22 am to No Colors
Wait until old Joe is still riding a lead in the polls after the laptop is taken into consideration. Then even the strongest believers in the polls will start to doubt them.
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