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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:56 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 3/27/20 at 7:56 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
How is the ventilator supply at your hospital system?
System-wide we're in good shape for a few more weeks. We won't need to take extraordinary measures until the end of next week (we think), though we'll probably have to get creative soon at specific facilities.
0
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:40 am to auggie
Augie,
To calculate the daily growth rate of cases or deaths for a given day, You do the following, I will use 3/25/20 and 3/26/20 for the example below
Step 1: Total Deaths from 3/26 - Total Deaths from 3/25 which is 1,295 - 1,027 = 268 new Deaths on 3/26.
Step 2: Divide the new deaths from 3/26 by the total deaths as of 3/25: 268/1,027 = 26.1%
Another way to think of this which might help: Yesterday we had a total of 1,027 deaths, today we had 268 more, that's a 26.1% increase in deaths since yesterday.
Hope this helps.
To calculate the daily growth rate of cases or deaths for a given day, You do the following, I will use 3/25/20 and 3/26/20 for the example below
Step 1: Total Deaths from 3/26 - Total Deaths from 3/25 which is 1,295 - 1,027 = 268 new Deaths on 3/26.
Step 2: Divide the new deaths from 3/26 by the total deaths as of 3/25: 268/1,027 = 26.1%
Another way to think of this which might help: Yesterday we had a total of 1,027 deaths, today we had 268 more, that's a 26.1% increase in deaths since yesterday.
Hope this helps.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:42 am to Chromdome35
I'm gonna ask you a question: if you weighed 250 pounds yesterday, and today, you weighed 270, what was the percentage of your weight increase?
You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect.
If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway.
You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect.
If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:49 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:49 am to auggie
(270-250)/250 = 8%
I do look at that, you can see that comparison on this graph in the tracker.
For the last 5 days, the growth rate of deaths is exceeding the growth rate of new cases
I do look at that, you can see that comparison on this graph in the tracker.
For the last 5 days, the growth rate of deaths is exceeding the growth rate of new cases
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 8:52 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:50 am to auggie
quote:
You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect. If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway.
overall mortality rate already accounts for that info by default. you can trend it.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:54 am to Chromdome35
(270-250)/250=8%
That's exactly the same way, that you figure your daily mortality increase. from 1 day to the next.
That's exactly the same way, that you figure your daily mortality increase. from 1 day to the next.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 8:56 am to auggie
...thats what he did to get 26%
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:00 am to Chromdome35
You can't see that the rate of deaths (red bar) has fallen for the last 3 days steadily?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:07 am to Tiguar
quote:
..thats what he did to get 26%
and that's wrong. 26% increase of 250 would = 65+ 250= 315.This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 9:40 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:08 am to auggie
Of course I can, and it has, we aren't debating that.
I was answering your question on how the numbers are calculated and responding to your statement:
"You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect. If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway."
The blue lines on that graph represent the growth rate of new cases which for the last 5 days has been below the growth rate of deaths. Which according to your statement above would say that we aren't making headway.
I was answering your question on how the numbers are calculated and responding to your statement:
"You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect. If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway."
The blue lines on that graph represent the growth rate of new cases which for the last 5 days has been below the growth rate of deaths. Which according to your statement above would say that we aren't making headway.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:10 am to auggie
I'm sorry but you're looking at it wrong.
If you don't believe me, then maybe you'll believe this: https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Growth-Rate
If you don't believe me, then maybe you'll believe this: https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Growth-Rate
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:11 am to NorthEndZone
Louisiana now tied with CA in deaths at 83. (Per capita, CA is like the US to our being Italy - nice work, folks.)
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:13 am to auggie
That’s not correct. That’s the growth rate of the growth rate. Not the growth rate.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:15 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Of course I can, and it has, we aren't debating that.
That's exactly what we are talking about. It's what I stated in my post that you questioned me about.
Mortality growth rate is dropping daily.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:19 am to auggie
So, how are things? Better, worse or about the same?
I got into an argument with the wife last night because she doesn't like how unconcerned I am about this. I told her that is because I listen to what the doctors are saying and not the facebook moms. She was not thrilled with that comment.
I got into an argument with the wife last night because she doesn't like how unconcerned I am about this. I told her that is because I listen to what the doctors are saying and not the facebook moms. She was not thrilled with that comment.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:19 am to auggie
Your original statement was "I am looking at the last 3 days bar graphs, and it appears that new cases are increasing daily, in The U.S. by about 28%, but deaths are only increasing by about 15% daily."
Bolding added by me
I was responding to your numbers and statement which were and still are both wrong.
Bolding added by me
I was responding to your numbers and statement which were and still are both wrong.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:19 am to Tiguar
It's The DAILY growth of mortality as a percentage comparison.
So, do you agree, that if the trend holds, we're looking at about 294 deaths for today?
So, do you agree, that if the trend holds, we're looking at about 294 deaths for today?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:20 am to Janky
quote:
I got into an argument with the wife last night because she doesn't like how unconcerned I am about this.
We just had sex and went to bed. Second time this month even.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:21 am to TigerFanatic99
I'm confused, did you have sex with Janky or his wife?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:26 am to Chromdome35
Sorry man, you were right in your OP. You're no mathematician.
I did miscalculate in my head on my first reply, but I used my calculator and corrected it in my next post.
See, the rate of new cases by percentage is remaining steady, while the rate of increase of deaths by percentage is dropping. That's a good thing.
I did miscalculate in my head on my first reply, but I used my calculator and corrected it in my next post.
See, the rate of new cases by percentage is remaining steady, while the rate of increase of deaths by percentage is dropping. That's a good thing.
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