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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:06 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:06 pm to Chromdome35
A couple of items of note:
1) The positivity rate ticked down 1% from last Monday on 200K more tests. The positivity rate is also under the 7 day average. A possible good sign? Time will tell.
2) Deaths at 327 today which is down from yesterday, normally Mondays are up a little over Sunday. Deaths were 55% under the 7-day average.
If you look at the deaths graph, you can see the numbers, after spiking last week, maybe returning to their previous pattern, we'll know in the next few days.
1) The positivity rate ticked down 1% from last Monday on 200K more tests. The positivity rate is also under the 7 day average. A possible good sign? Time will tell.
2) Deaths at 327 today which is down from yesterday, normally Mondays are up a little over Sunday. Deaths were 55% under the 7-day average.
If you look at the deaths graph, you can see the numbers, after spiking last week, maybe returning to their previous pattern, we'll know in the next few days.
1
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:07 pm to Crimsonians
For today, NY has 10 new deaths for an overall total of 24,989.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:10 pm to Chromdome35
Ok. WOM has 41 for NY. Where do these places get their different data? Obviously not delayed data, since most people will tell you NY has over 32,000 deaths.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:12 pm to Crimsonians
I did see earlier that the CDC has actual Covid deaths in the US somewhere around 52,000, compared to the inflated number "with" Covid.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:18 pm to Crimsonians
quote:
I did see earlier that the CDC has actual Covid deaths in the US somewhere around 52,000, compared to the inflated number "with" Covid.
I'd love to see that link.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:26 pm to Chromdome35
That spike was caused by backlogged deaths, mostly from NJ
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:31 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:I definitely do think society values life differently than in past eras. That's why I don't like just casually comparing this to the HK flu in the late 60s.
Does that mean we are doing too much? Does that mean prior responses did too little? Does modern society value life differently than in those past ones? Are we "over/undervaluing" certain lives relative to others?
Those questions and their answers are less about science and more about current values, morals and yes, politics. That whole disagreement isn't seriously about if the virus is real, its about this debate and all these things and where you are on the spectrum of how you value these factors against other factors.
My opinion is that the economic engine of the West (and focused on the US) is the best chance the world is ever going to get to get and stay out of the stone age. So any attempts to seriously disrupt that ought to be accompanied with copious data and knowledge about how bad something is. I know it's easier to do with benefit of hindsight, but still.
Nobody had a plan to re-open once the decision to close was made. Ultimately, I blame Trump for most of that. He left the messaging up almost completely to 2 scientists. He should have balanced them with (at least) an ethicist and an economist of stature.
I mean, I started a thread a few days ago about Kurt Eichenwald's tweets that basically argue "if it saves just one life". I can't believe supposedly serious writers are still parroting nonsense like that that is completely devoid of any kind of rational risk/reward calculus.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:33 pm to Jwho77
Look at column for involving Covid and pneumonia excluding influenza.
Pretty interesting. More deaths by flu.
Pretty interesting. More deaths by flu.
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:41 pm to Crimsonians
Yea that is something I’ve been trying to dig into. I’m curious what the ifr is for this current flu season.
Part of the argument is that COVID is making flour and pneumonia more deadly. If the ifr isn’t much different for the flu (total flu deaths with and without Covid) then we really shouldn’t be including those deaths in Covid deaths.
Part of the argument is that COVID is making flour and pneumonia more deadly. If the ifr isn’t much different for the flu (total flu deaths with and without Covid) then we really shouldn’t be including those deaths in Covid deaths.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:42 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
The problem is it will take a Presidential tweet to even get talked about.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:48 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:CDC estimates of flu detached are usually 6-8 times as many as the official case confirmed flu deaths.
Yea that is something I’ve been trying to dig into. I’m curious what the ifr is for this current flu season.
Part of the argument is that COVID is making flour and pneumonia more deadly. If the ifr isn’t much different for the flu (total flu deaths with and without Covid) then we really shouldn’t be including those deaths in Covid deaths.
In other words, roughly 6,000 of the 40,000 are officially confirmed flu deaths.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:52 pm to Chromdome35
Posted this same thing to Supper Club on my home site the other day, but there is a peak developing in Georgia around July 2. Still not out of the 14 day window, but it's looking positive. All of the metro Atlanta counties are showing the same pattern, all within a few days of each other (July 1 +/- 2 days).
All that is to say I'm hopeful we're going to start seeing the beginnings of herd immunity start driving numbers down over the next (god I hate to say this) 2 weeks. Georgia has thus far resisted the widespread shutdowns, meaning we're still in "do very little" mode. I'm hopeful other states will follow over the next few weeks. July is make or break on if we can put this shite to bed soon.
All that is to say I'm hopeful we're going to start seeing the beginnings of herd immunity start driving numbers down over the next (god I hate to say this) 2 weeks. Georgia has thus far resisted the widespread shutdowns, meaning we're still in "do very little" mode. I'm hopeful other states will follow over the next few weeks. July is make or break on if we can put this shite to bed soon.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:29 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:I think it's even more extrapolated than that, isn't it? Like maybe only 600 are confirmed.
CDC estimates of flu detached are usually 6-8 times as many as the official case confirmed flu deaths.
In other words, roughly 6,000 of the 40,000 are officially confirmed flu deaths.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:30 pm to AUMIS01
quote:
Posted this same thing to Supper Club on my home site the other day, but there is a peak developing in Georgia around July 2. Still not out of the 14 day window, but it's looking positive. All of the metro Atlanta counties are showing the same pattern, all within a few days of each other (July 1 +/- 2 days).
All that is to say I'm hopeful we're going to start seeing the beginnings of herd immunity start driving numbers down over the next (god I hate to say this) 2 weeks. Georgia has thus far resisted the widespread shutdowns, meaning we're still in "do very little" mode. I'm hopeful other states will follow over the next few weeks. July is make or break on if we can put this shite to bed soon.
sounds like they are following the riots perfectly, odd coincidence
Posted on 7/13/20 at 6:40 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
CDC estimates of flu detached are usually 6-8 times as many as the official case confirmed flu deaths.
In other words, roughly 6,000 of the 40,000 are officially confirmed flu deaths.
That isn’t really doesn’t have much to do with my post.
If the IFR for the flu is around .1% normally, what has it been during the COVID tracking? If the IFR is still around .1%, then I’d say it isn’t really fair to be including those deaths as Covid deaths just because they have Covid. If the ifr has increased, then it would be fair to use the overage as Covid related deaths.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 7:03 pm to gthog61
Isn't it though? Amazing coincidence indeed. When Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb and DeKalb are all on the exact same curve almost exactly 2 weeks after Wendy's...
Posted on 7/13/20 at 7:28 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I think it's even more extrapolated than that, isn't it? Like maybe only 600 are confirmed.
Yeah. The number that is tracked is very small.
Posted on 7/14/20 at 5:37 am to the808bass
New York State reported five deaths statewide on Sunday
Posted on 7/14/20 at 10:22 am to themunch
Alabama came in hot this morning.
I wish I could see further back. Gonna have to check chromes data feed.
I wish I could see further back. Gonna have to check chromes data feed.
This post was edited on 7/14/20 at 10:24 am
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