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2
Posted on 8/4/20 at 11:02 pm to oklahogjr
quote:Deaths have already peaked in many hotspot states, if you go by actual day of death rather than day death is reported.
In deaths it appears were not growing as much so I'd expect that to peak pretty soon and start dropping since all the other numbers already have and deaths lag everything
hospitalizations are down 10% nationally since last week. ER visits for covid like symptoms are also down.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:40 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
1. Is there credible data somewhere that reports COVID deaths broken down by: 1) COVID the actual cause of death, and 2) COVID present/complication but not the cause of death? I've seen "stats" but no idea how they were derived.
2. Has anybody seen a report showing the number of COVID deaths on the books for people that never tested positive for COVID?
2. Has anybody seen a report showing the number of COVID deaths on the books for people that never tested positive for COVID?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:50 am to David_DJS
I am not aware of any source for the data you are asking about.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 10:09 am to David_DJS
quote:
Is there credible data somewhere that reports COVID deaths broken down by: 1) COVID the actual cause of death, and 2) COVID present/complication but not the cause of death? I've seen "stats" but no idea how they were derived.
The CDC has Covid deaths and Covid-Associated deaths. Let me see if I can find it.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:27 am to oklahogjr
quote:
In deaths it appears were not growing as much so I'd expect that to peak pretty soon and start dropping since all the other numbers already have and deaths lag everything
I gotcha. The Gu model has the US peaking as a country on August 12, and that seems pretty plausible at this point.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:46 am to Athanatos
How do the daily deaths jibe between
Our world in data
and
CDC
The CDC data shows a precipitous drop in the past 2 weeks.
Our world in data
and
CDC
The CDC data shows a precipitous drop in the past 2 weeks.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:46 am to Athanatos
Not sure if same model, but covid19projections has deaths peaking this next weekish.
True infections peaked a couple weeks ago.
True infections peaked a couple weeks ago.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:09 pm to Big Scrub TX
Because it's two different numbers.
COVID Tracking Project, Our World In Data, World O Meter, John Hopkins, etc... All are reporting on the deaths as reported each day by the states.
The CDC reporting is based on cause of death as listed on the Death Certificate. The Death Certificates run several weeks behind the daily reporting. The CDC states in their data that it is incomplete.
From the CDC page you linked:
COVID Tracking Project, Our World In Data, World O Meter, John Hopkins, etc... All are reporting on the deaths as reported each day by the states.
The CDC reporting is based on cause of death as listed on the Death Certificate. The Death Certificates run several weeks behind the daily reporting. The CDC states in their data that it is incomplete.
From the CDC page you linked:
quote:
Why These Numbers are Different
Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Counts by NCHS often track 1–2 weeks behind other data.
Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps to filling out and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays.
States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation between states.
It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person, which takes an average of 7 days.
Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 3:15 pm to Big Scrub TX
CDC data is constantly changing and is never 100% accurate at an given point. For instance, I noticed last week that they had a couple of minor additional count changes all the way back in February, pushing the % of expected deaths count closer to 100% for a couple of weeks.
Anything inside of 8 weeks in their tracker is subject to material change. Anything inside of 4 weeks will change substantially. Chrome mentioned why, all about when death certificates are filed.
Anything inside of 8 weeks in their tracker is subject to material change. Anything inside of 4 weeks will change substantially. Chrome mentioned why, all about when death certificates are filed.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 5:35 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
Posted on 8/5/20 at 5:40 pm to Chromdome35
The downward trend in testing volume continued today but the bright spot is that the 7-Day average positivity rate continues to show declining movement. Daily Cases continue to show a steep downward trend and the 7-day average growth rate for new cases continues to decline.
Deaths at 1401 today while the growth curve for deaths continues to be flat at .7% daily. Week over Week, deaths were down by 3.2%.
Mortality continues to decline and is at 3.13%; however, you can tell that the curve is starting to flatten out at around 3%.
US hospitalizations have been declining; however, the last few days they have been fairly flat.
The following states reported no new deaths today: AK, CO, CT, DC, DE MA, ND, NE, NJ, VT, WV, WY
The following states reported no new cases today: MA
Deaths at 1401 today while the growth curve for deaths continues to be flat at .7% daily. Week over Week, deaths were down by 3.2%.
Mortality continues to decline and is at 3.13%; however, you can tell that the curve is starting to flatten out at around 3%.
US hospitalizations have been declining; however, the last few days they have been fairly flat.
The following states reported no new deaths today: AK, CO, CT, DC, DE MA, ND, NE, NJ, VT, WV, WY
The following states reported no new cases today: MA
This post was edited on 8/5/20 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 8/5/20 at 5:44 pm to Chromdome35
Just wish everything would open up so we can have that one last spike and then the final decline.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 5:57 pm to Crimsonians
I'm with you. With the current wave, I starting to think we're running out of people to test, thus the major drop in testing over the last week or so. Hard to draw firm conclusions, obviously I'd rather see a steady level of testing resulting in 15k less cases a week later, but it seems obvious we're seeing a downward trend on this wave.
Edit: Also noticed that COVID Tracking Project caught up on Georgia deaths today. Doesn't affect the 7 day, but makes week over week comparisons a little more difficult.
Edit: Also noticed that COVID Tracking Project caught up on Georgia deaths today. Doesn't affect the 7 day, but makes week over week comparisons a little more difficult.
This post was edited on 8/5/20 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 8/6/20 at 7:20 am to AUMIS01
Posted on 8/6/20 at 9:20 am to Game2620
A lot of health departments aren't tracking recoveries. Georgia officially has zero recoveries out of over 200k cases, DPH specifically says in public it's a stat they aren't tracking. Thus the US recoveries number is wildly understated.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 10:59 am to AUMIS01
quote:
A lot of health departments aren't tracking recoveries. Georgia officially has zero recoveries out of over 200k cases, DPH specifically says in public it's a stat they aren't tracking. Thus the US recoveries number is wildly understated.
By extension the number of active cases is grossly overstated.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 11:34 am to Game2620
yea, that's why I show it on the tracker, but don't discuss it at all. It's grossly inaccurate.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:11 pm to Game2620
Yup, you got it. We're well below 1m active cases in the US today, at least among those that have a positive tests counted in the numbers.
At some points, the states that don't report should, at the very least, go back in time to say, March, April, and May, take the confirmed positives and subtract the deaths and call that number the recovered. Of course, that might cause them to actually have to put some effort into de-duping their cases data.
At some points, the states that don't report should, at the very least, go back in time to say, March, April, and May, take the confirmed positives and subtract the deaths and call that number the recovered. Of course, that might cause them to actually have to put some effort into de-duping their cases data.
This post was edited on 8/6/20 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:46 pm to AUMIS01
Florida is getting close to being back near it's normal testing since shutting some of it down during the storm.
Slight drop in cases and percent positive. Should keep dropping.
Slight drop in cases and percent positive. Should keep dropping.
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