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Crimsonians
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2019
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
Muh media


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21
Eat Your Crow
Member since May 2017
1097 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
Aren't like 43% of the positive tests in Florida people under the age of 30?


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1163 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases


dafif
Member since Jan 2019
1011 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
Eat Your Crow

quote:

Aren't like 43% of the positive tests in Florida people under the age of 30?


I would love to know the antibody numbers. Alas, they are combined for some reason. I guess just padding...


TigerFanatic99
Chicago Cubs Fan
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
15186 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
This is an important week. If deaths don't start to trend up in relation to cases, it's going to be hard to justify shutting it all down again.


bigbowe80
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
3377 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:15 PM CST 6/28/20 Final Numbers for the Day
It’s a shithole state with a broken government (NY). They suck at testing. They suck at treatment. They suck at discharge planning. They suck at contact tracing.




And Andrew Cuomo has the audacity to get on the TV earlier last week and say the southern republican states were screwing this up and “had played politics and lost”. I knew he was on one of the networks who wasn’t going to hold him accountable for that statement but it was outrageous on so many levels. Just straight up ludicrous.


RemouladeSawce
LSU Fan
Uranus
Member since Sep 2008
10015 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day


I've been away from the data the last few weeks but based on the hysteria I hear from other sources I would never have guessed the trajectory of the red line.

As long as the under-40 year old contingent keeps to themselves, big whoop.
This post was edited on 6/29 at 5:06 am


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1163 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
I added a new tab to the tracker today titled: State Comparisons

On this tab, you can choose a starting date, 5 states to compare vs each other, and a metric to compare such as New Cases.



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30
Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
22327 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:


I've been away from the data the last few weeks but based on the hysteria I hear from other sources I would never have guessed the trajectory of the red line.
Yeah. It's virtually the only piece of relevant news - and even "informed" people that I mention it to are shocked.


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41
Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
22327 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

This is an important week. If deaths don't start to trend up in relation to cases, it's going to be hard to justify shutting it all down again.
Which target date are you looking at as being the next real milestone here?


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the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
71402 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
We should have already seen an uptick in deaths of the rise in new cases was significant. At this point, we’re just confirming what we know.


Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
22327 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

We should have already seen an uptick in deaths of the rise in new cases was significant. At this point, we’re just confirming what we know.
What % of the effect do you think is it really was a culling of the absolute weakest the first time around and now the overall population - even the more vulnerable parts - are just not as vulnerable?


Chicken
USA Fan
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
15680 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
So, what is the actual mortality rate of this virus?


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
71402 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

What % of the effect do you think is it really was a culling of the absolute weakest the first time around and now the overall population - even the more vulnerable parts - are just not as vulnerable?


80% or higher. That’s what viruses do.
Farr’s model always works.

I’ve seen some anecdotal stuff that current Covid patients don’t have as high of a viral load as patients in the early days. But nothing concrete.


Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
75237 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

So, what is the actual mortality rate of this virus?


Difficult to know because of the asymmetry of its impact (virtually harmless to those under 30 without comorbidities, very dangerous to older folks, particularly 60+ and comorbidities), but assuming every American contracted an infection (herd immunity will kick in first), probably 4 or 5 in 1000 will die, + or - 1 per thousand. (ETA: And this is assuming that treatment does not get more effective than it is right now. Effective treatment could decimate this rate.)

That's just my complete wild-assed guess based on testing rates, mortality rates across the age spectrum, etc.

This post was edited on 6/29 at 12:09 pm


Big Scrub TX
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Dec 2013
22327 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:


I’ve seen some anecdotal stuff that current Covid patients don’t have as high of a viral load as patients in the early days. But nothing concrete.
I assume hospitalizations are occurring much earlier now too, right? So things don't get as dire on that end either.


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04
Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1163 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link New COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable New COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1163 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
New Cases at 36.4K today, down from yesterday, up 34% vs last week and 8% below the 7-day average. This was the largest amount of new cases for a Monday to date. The 7-day average for the growth of new cases is up to 1.64% and climbing. The last time it was at this rate was on 5/16 when the growth was declining everyday. Testing was down from the last few days, but still high at 569K with a positivity rate of 6.4%.

The positivity rate is up .6% from last week but down .5% from the 7-day average.

Deaths at 332 for the day. The lowest Monday yet but up from yesterday and 16% above last week, down 213 ~39% vs the 7-day average.

Mortality continues to fall and is down to 4.65%

Alabama led the way in per capita new cases today, followed by Arkansas, Tennessee, Kansas, South Carolina, and Florida. The SEC is representing.

This chart shows you the 7-Day rolling average of new cases for TN, AZ, TX, FL, and SC.


Looking at the growth rate of new cases, Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, and Idaho comprise the top 5. The top 5 states for growth rate in deaths were Arizona, Alaska, Arkansas, South Dakota, and Tennessee.
This post was edited on 6/29 at 5:50 pm


Chicken
USA Fan
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
15680 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
quote:

Difficult to know
well, don't we know total number of positives and a total number of deaths?

Sure, the total number of positives are understated and the total number of deaths is overstated, but isn't there a fatality figure out there for the entire country?


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1163 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:00 PM 7/2 CST Final numbers for the day
Chicken, The only number we have is the current #deaths / #cases which is where the 4.65% mortality is coming from. We know that's overstated and we can see the mortality rate declining as the # of cases increases from all the testing.

It is possible to do a back of the envelope calculation to guess a ballpark mortality number by taking the current average positivity rate of 6.9% and multiplying that by the US population of 331M. That says that roughly 22.9M people are or have been infected. Of those 22.9M people, we've suffered 119.7K deaths to date. 119.7K Deaths / 22.9M Infected = .521% mortality rate instead of the current 4.65%.


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