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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:27 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:27 pm to Chromdome35
The death rate is going up because the rate of deaths lags the rate of diagnosed cases by 7 to 10 days.
1
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:29 pm to Ace Midnight
Good stuff
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?
I heard Dr Birx allude to the fact that the older folks get symptoms quickly vs younger, which is interesting
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?
I heard Dr Birx allude to the fact that the older folks get symptoms quickly vs younger, which is interesting
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:32 pm to Chromdome35
Gotcha, thanks.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:33 pm to NorthEndZone
And yet we still have no good overall infection figures.
So, it's still a lot of pissing in the wind.
It doesn't mean the current figures can't be directionally informative. But our universe of infection (and thus inoculation/immunity, as an aside of course) is so indeterminate as to render so many of the models potentially useless.
So, it's still a lot of pissing in the wind.
It doesn't mean the current figures can't be directionally informative. But our universe of infection (and thus inoculation/immunity, as an aside of course) is so indeterminate as to render so many of the models potentially useless.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:35 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
New York is testing more people per capita than anywhere in the world
Yeah I meant making more effort to contain and control (quarantine) NYC, rather than more testing. We already pretty much have a good understanding of what the virus is doing inside there, at this point.....
NYC is kinda for us a larger scale version of what that religious church group was for South Korea. Once they contained that group, they started getting a solid grip on their outbreak.....
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 10:37 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:40 pm to NorCali
quote:
Good stuff
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?
I heard Dr Birx allude to the fact that the older folks get symptoms quickly vs younger, which is interesting
It would seem to me the older folks' immunity systems are weaker than the younger folks' are, and they are dealing with more pre-existing conditions not associated with COVID-19 but that still weakens their immune systems, that the COVID-19 further exacerbates......
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:41 pm to ConwayGamecock
You gonna retest asymptomatic people who test negative every week? Every two weeks? What’s the plan?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:41 pm to ConwayGamecock
quote:
Yeah I meant making more effort to contain and control (quarantine) NYC
New Yorkers have been fleeing the city for awhile now...a lot of them. Watch Florida for a future hotspot. They have started telling people to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival but who knows. You have to stock the house when you arrive so you have to go out some.
Again, thanks Chrome.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:42 pm to McLemore
quote:
no good overall infection figures
Agreed. That is why is it critical that the most vulnerable to infection and serious effects remain as isolated as possible. Some seemingly uninfected people are carrying the virus.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:43 pm to DMAN1968
That's what I don't get. How is New York still allowing the level of travel and people being out that they are. Pictures from just yesterday of packed subway cars.
That city should be locked down like Wuhan at this point.
That city should be locked down like Wuhan at this point.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:44 pm to the808bass
quote:
You gonna retest asymptomatic people who test negative every week? Every two weeks? What’s the plan?
I was more thinking of this movie I saw a while back, "Escape from New York"??
Naah, but all kidding aside, Cuomo seems to be heading more in that direction. But we have an opportunity of as known of a major hot spot of infection in the U.S. as we have....
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:48 pm to ConwayGamecock
On another note of interest looking at the data, Washington was once one of the major areas - if not the first area - of infection (wasn't there a retirement home that was swimming in it?), and their daily new cases seem to be dropping a good bit. While the other top states in their range are getting 500 or more new cases, they only had 119 new cases.....
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:00 pm to ConwayGamecock
A positive sign, the volume of testing appears to be really ramping up now.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:00 pm to Chromdome35
120,000 tests today.
Wow.
Wow.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:05 pm to the808bass
That should cause a spike in case numbers in a day or five depending on the average turn time for tests now.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:06 pm to Chromdome35
Will new cases trend back above deaths?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
A positive sign, the volume of testing appears to be really ramping up now.
So I guess the really positive sign would be if new infections do not increase along with the big ramp up in new testing. I know theory says otherwise but it would be nice to see.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:08 pm to the808bass
If that isn’t an anomaly and they maintain that cadence there is going to be an explosion in number of cases. 13% of tests are coming back positive, so the math is simple.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:10 pm to Chromdome35
If we’re testing more and more liberally, the number of positive cases per test should drop as well.
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