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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:28 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:28 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I'm confused, did you have sex with Janky or his wife?
Wait a minute. It wan't me so......
0
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:31 am to Janky
quote:
So, how are things? Better, worse or about the same?
It appears to me that doctors are making headway, and the number of people dying, isn't growing, as fast as the number of people testing positive.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:32 am to auggie
So, slightly better. I will take it.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:44 am to auggie
I am not a mathematician as I only went up to Differential Equations in college and I've forgotten just about 100% of that in the 34 years since, but I do know how to the simple math to calculate growth rates.
Your calculation appears to be the growth rate of the growth rate.
Your calculation appears to be the growth rate of the growth rate.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:47 am to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary
If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.
Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.
I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary
If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.
Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.
I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:47 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Your calculation appears to be the growth rate of the growth rate
YES! Exactly!
I think that will be the quickest way to notice positive/negative trends. If we have 294 deaths or less today, it's going good.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 9:51 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:50 am to Chromdome35
Still looks like we’re on the upswing on deaths unfortunately. Based on new cases from the 15th to the 19th, that was a bit predictable. Probably being driven by regional outbreaks.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 9:50 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:01 am to the808bass
So the growth rate of active case has declined for 7 days straight? This is with increased testing. Does that indicate that maybe the drug is healing people, or that fewer people are catching this crap? Just trying to understand what all this means.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:02 am to the808bass
yeah I fully expect deaths to trend up the next 5-10 days given the sharp increase in cases a few days ago
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:21 am to Chromdome35
Would really like the % new cases to end up in the teens today.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:22 am to auggie
Finally, a common point of agreement! I had the feeling we were talking about the same thing in different terms.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:28 am to Chromdome35
Some concerning death figures relative to previous death totals in the latest wave of updates from Europe. Netherlands +112, Belgium +69, UK +181, Denmark +11, Portugal +16.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:33 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Finally, a common point of agreement! I had the feeling we were talking about the same thing in different terms.
What I am looking for right now, I know that many doctors are trying the new treatment, and I think we are already seeing it working, judging by what I think I see in the numbers.
Thank you for taking the time to post the graphs, it's an interesting thing to look at while sitting at home.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:36 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:39 am to Chromdome35
Are starts ever this slow
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:40 am to Jrv2damac
US data is very unreliable until around noon, either just before or just after
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:54 am to Chromdome35
Oh look! No recoveries again this morning! I guess we're back to not reporting those again.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:54 am
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:55 am to imjustafatkid
here comes new york with their AM numbers, after NJ posts theirs we will have an idea how the day is going to go
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:00 am to Tiguar
This weekend will be the tell. If we see daily number of deaths approaching 500 then we don’t have this licked and can expect a long fight. If mortality starts to diverge from total case growth (such as staying in the 200) then I think we start to see things improve in the coming weeks.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:03 am to C
Noteworthy that US deaths per capita continue to trend closely along with Germany, which is lauded as one of the paragons of COVID response.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:11 am to auggie
For your example, isn’t it usual wt (250) - actual wt (270) / usual wt to determine %change??
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 11:12 am
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