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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
73781 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

All that being said, we could be flattening and it just hasn't shown up in the numbers at this point (let's pray this is the case).


Certainly we look to be at the end of the acceleration phase - the testing backlog is pretty much burned through - so, while not real time, it is a lot more reliable "known" data with fewer "unknowns" as we sit, Thursday, March 26th.

We may not be out of the woods yet, but with as few deaths we've experienced per case and per million of population, I can only say it appears as though our containment and mitigation strategies (Thank YOU, Mr. President, VP Pence, Drs. Birx and Fauci, the entire Task Force and most importantly, most Americans who are not Democrat members of the House and Senate - we (almost) all deserve a round of applause) should get high marks for this level of control, at this point in our curve.



Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Ace, One of the things I've been keeping an eye on is the lag in new deaths vs new cases.

This graphic shows that 15 days ago the number of cases per million population was 1.3. 15 Days later the number of deaths per million was 1.3.

If you look at the growth per million of cases and compare it to the growth per million of deaths since they were both at 1.3 the pattern looks very similar. They aren't exact, but they are pretty darn close.



nvcowboyfan
LSU Fan
James Turner Street, Birmingham,UK
Member since Nov 2007
2467 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Chromedome35 gets a free TD-premium account for life as far as I'm concerned for his contribution here.


Jrv2damac
Kansas Fan
Member since Mar 2004
33500 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Come on....keep dropping


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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
73781 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

This graphic shows that 15 days ago the number of cases per million population was 1.3. 15 Days later the number of deaths per million was 1.3.

If you look at the growth per million of cases and compare it to the growth per million of deaths since they were both at 1.3 the pattern looks very similar. They aren't exact, but they are pretty darn close.


That is definitely something to watch. No real reason why they should track so closely, other than as we talked about early on - should this thing settle into a fairly predictable 1% CFR, then every 100 cases will yield 1 death, every 10k will yield 100 deaths, etc.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Thanks NVC, I like the way you think!!!


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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Have you paid any attention to the predictive model tab of the google sheet? I know it's a simple model, but it's doing a pretty decent job of tracking to the actual numbers.

It predicts 85.9K cases for today, we're 3,950 away from that number right now. It also predicts 1,229 deaths as of the end of the day. We are 52 away from that.

BIG IF we don't see the curves start to flatten soon, the model says we'll be at 1M cases in 11 days and 100K deaths in 19 days.

I suppose we will just have to wait and see if that's correct.


Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
73781 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

Have you paid any attention to the predictive model tab of the google sheet?


No.

quote:

BIG IF we don't see the curves start to flatten soon, the model says we'll be at 1M cases in 11 days and 100K deaths in 19 days.

I suppose we will just have to wait and see if that's correct.


We will definitely see.


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MorgusTheMagnificent
Grambling Fan
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2014
1376 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
One thing to look at is how quickly the active cases double. Currently, it’s somewhere between 2 and 5 days. We need that to get longer


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
I agree Morgus. I have read that a normal infectious disease outbreak doubles every 6 days. We are doubling that rate up
right now at right at 3 days doubling time.


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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
73781 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

. Currently, it’s somewhere between 2 and 5 days. We need that to get longer



While some of these surges are attributable to testing/reporting lags, over time those numbers should settle down. Doubling every 5 days (or even 4 one more cycle) isn't a huge concern (particularly if we're ending the acceleration phase).

Doubling every 2 or 3 days would remain a significant concern.


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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change

New Tabs Added in the last day
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other countries metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.











imjustafatkid
UAB Fan
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
21725 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

Spain said it found that rapid coronavirus tests bought from China did not consistently identify positive cases and would return them to the manufacturer. ~ The Spanish newspaper El País reported that microbiologists found that tests it bought from a Chinese company called Bioeasy could correctly identify virus cases only 30% of the time.



Are these the same type of tests we didn't accept from the WHO?


Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
27556 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Probably. They’re in bed with the chicoms
This post was edited on 3/26 at 5:24 pm


Magician2
SMU Fan
Grand Coteau
Member since Oct 2015
6225 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Why has the media not called out chinas numbers?
They’ve completely given up on journalism.


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90
TeLeFaWx
SMU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
27034 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

BIG IF we don't see the curves start to flatten soon, the model says we'll be at 1M cases in 11 days and 100K deaths in 19 days.

I suppose we will just have to wait and see if that's correct.


I think one problem with your predictive model is that it doesn't take in to account a trend towards zero new cases.

Usually what you do it take the natural log of the dataset, then find the difference from each day, then trend that curve towards zero at some point in the future.

Which is why curve fitting in these sigmoidal models is so tricky.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Uh-huh, you obviously know way more about this kind of modeling than I do. If you give me the formula's to use, I can try to build the model.
This post was edited on 3/26 at 6:13 pm


AthensTiger
LSU Fan
Athens, GA
Member since Jul 2008
2763 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
I think you and TeLeFa are on the right track now with projection. Good job with this!


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10
TeLeFaWx
SMU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
27034 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

Uh-huh, you obviously know way more about this kind of modeling than I do. If you give me the formula's to use, I can try to build the model.



I wouldn't really know the trendline functions in google sheets vs Excel.

Maybe I would just make a column with ln(x) of the data, then plot it on a non-log scale graph. You essentially end up with the exact same plot of the data you have on a logarithmic scale.

Then you just take the difference in day to day and graph that. Then you can model that data forward in a variety of ways, as long as it trends to zero. Which is the tricky part. Since it can never be less than zero, you can't have negative total cases for the day.

If you just fit a trendline to that in Excel for example, it's not really going to give you any trendline fit that doesn't cross the x axis. So you basically have to average it with zero in some way, then just reverse the difference going forward with e^(x)

In Excel, you can easily use the LINEST function to get the coefficients for any trendline you would get in their regression analysis.

To get a 4th order polynomial trendline fit for example, which would give you a pretty high r^2 value, but a horrible equation to predict forward with. A logarithmic trend is probably better since it could naturally trend to zero easier, but even then it's a crap shoot.

You could sort of manually fit a trendline that would trend below zero then manually fit an inflection date where it flattens out to mimic the Italy trend?

TL;DR... Don't worry about it, your model will make sense once we hit that inflection point.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
706 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:23 PM CST 4/9/20 Final Numbers for the Day
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change

New Tabs Added in the last day
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other country's metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.












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