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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
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UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.









This post was edited on 3/31 at 6:47 pm


Dayman
Member since Sep 2015
621 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
Appreciate this


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391
ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
76117 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
Oh

Look

Mortality rate

Hmmmmmmm


Magician2
SMU Fan
Grand Coteau
Member since Oct 2015
6185 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
You are a good poster thanks for sharing.

I had asked earlier this week what exactly is considered a “recovery” like how is it defined?

Because I’m honestly shocked we don’t have more.



Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
27339 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
Lagging indicator, but I recall being called all sorts of nasty names by telling all of you the 4% mortality rate means this virus is way more prevalent than it seems


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
I just realized I screwed up the mortality rate formula, i have corrected it. It is now accurate.


ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
76117 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
quote:

Lagging indicator, but I recall being called all sorts of nasty names by telling all of you the 4% mortality rate means this virus is way more prevalent than it seems
Huh?

I KNEW the 4% rate was a joke.

So, you weren't laughed at me for that particular reason


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155
Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
Recoveries should start going up in the coming days as people move through the system.


ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
76117 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
quote:

I just realized I screwed up the mortality rate formula, i have corrected it. It is now accurate.


I'd noticed that one. Gave you a pass. LOL


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60
deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
38550 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
What happened to the Johns Hopkins site?


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cokebottleag
Texas A&M Fan
Myles Garrett Did Nothing Wrong
Member since Aug 2011
22242 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
This can’t be right.

The media said we only tested 77 people one day this week, and you can’t have more cases discovered than that.

They wouldn’t just go on the internet and lie, would they?


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
I think the John Hopkins site is just overwhelmed with traffic.


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frogglet
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2018
386 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
I'm guessing there must be only one local government that is saying what condition the cases are in, and that's why 'serious cases' seems to be so off. Probably most hospitals and agencies are not giving out that information right now.


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
38550 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
A liberal friend sent me a Miami herald link yesterday claiming only 3 tests had been done in Florida. Very misleading headline... if you read all the way to the last paragraph it says only three tests had been done at one particular hospital. Liberals don't read all the way to the end. Just misleading headlines. Once I pointed this out to him, his response was the predictable "well there's still not enough tests Orange man bad".


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
I agree the number is suspiciously low.

The % of serious cases to active cases:
Worldwide: 8.84%
Italy: 8.88%
UK: 2.6%
France: 4.31%
Germany: .25%
Spain: 4.73%


frogglet
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2018
386 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
The main thing to me is that deaths are increasing but seem to have no relation to serious cases. You would think the two would be related.


deeprig9
Member since Sep 2012
38550 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
It's low because here we are finally testing everyone in contact with infected then testing everyone in contact with them... whether they are symptomatic or not, and we're finding lots of healthy people infected. That's why the number is low, and quite frankly, more accurate.


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81
Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
520 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
Agreed, I suspect the protocols used to define what constitutes a serious case haven't been fully aligned across all the various reporting entities.

As a numbers geek, these numbers don't fully make sense to me at this point. I think it's probably just turbulence in the reporting process.


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30
the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66572 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
quote:

The main thing to me is that deaths are increasing but seem to have no relation to serious cases. You would think the two would be related.


Median time to death is almost 18 days. Deaths will lag serious cases even when serious cases is an accurate distinction (which I’m not sure it is here).


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70
Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
97844 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 6:46 PM CST 3/31/20
I wish ages of cases were reported


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