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Started By
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Trafalgar has Trump up 3 in NC
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:29 am
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:29 am
12
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:30 am to Clemsontigers02
Its over then, congrats fellas 
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:31 am to Clemsontigers02
Read this as NY and almost shite myself.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:31 am to Clemsontigers02
Poll conducted before the debate as well
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 am to Clemsontigers02
This seems a tad high, but I do think undecideds/independents will break from Trump all over the map, so a 3-point win for Trump might end up being exactly right.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 am to Caymus
It will come down to Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Pennsylvania it will be a landslide. If not things may get tense.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 am to jlovel7
Would love to see what they have for Tillis and Forest. In this political environment I don’t see how either Trump or Biden win the state and the Senate candidate doesn’t also win. Apparently Forest (rubbing against Cooper for Gov) is seen as a little crazy which might hurt him with independents, but at the same time Cooper shutting down the state doesn’t seem like a popular decision.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 am to Clemsontigers02
Predictit flipped to red for trump yesterday.
Zona is 55 corrupt pos
The Midwest targets mid to low 60s
Zona is 55 corrupt pos
The Midwest targets mid to low 60s
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 am to Eat Your Crow
Trump wins NC by 4-5
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:33 am to Clemsontigers02
MAGA
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:33 am to Clemsontigers02
Nate was trashing Trafalgar this morning on Twitter.
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll when you can consistently predict their results before they are released.
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll when you can consistently predict their results before they are released.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:35 am to redneck hippie
quote:
Nate was trashing Trafalgar this morning on Twitter.
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll when you can consistently predict their results before they are released.
So the only accurate poll from 2016 isn't trustworthy.......
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:35 am to redneck hippie
quote:
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll when you can consistently predict their results before they are released.
I bet the next mainstream polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will have Biden ahead by 6-7 points each.
See what I did there, Nate?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:35 am to redneck hippie
quote:
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll
Neither is Nate's interpretation of polls. He got his arse handed to him four years ago.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:36 am to rstamp1
i expect to hold all states won last time and flip NV, NH and hopefully Minny. not expecting anything out of CO, NM or VA. if we do great tho.
all we need technically other than states we won last time is 1 outta WI, MI and PA. we got this.
just keep treating it as if we are down and everybody get out and vote! we may have states flip we never imagined.
the hispanic vote will be higher than last time and the black vote will be the death knell for dems which makes us RETAIN THE BELT FOR 4 MORE YEARS!
all we need technically other than states we won last time is 1 outta WI, MI and PA. we got this.
just keep treating it as if we are down and everybody get out and vote! we may have states flip we never imagined.
the hispanic vote will be higher than last time and the black vote will be the death knell for dems which makes us RETAIN THE BELT FOR 4 MORE YEARS!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:37 am to Strannix
Trafalgar was so off in 2018, because they didn't properly gauge turnout. Trump's name wasn't on the ballot. Mid-term elections normally favor the party not occupying the White House. They did a shite job.
However, as you said, they were great in 2016. This is another presidential year. I would trust Trafalgar more than most polls, at this point.
However, as you said, they were great in 2016. This is another presidential year. I would trust Trafalgar more than most polls, at this point.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:45 am to redneck hippie
quote:
Nate was trashing Trafalgar this morning on Twitter.
Basically saying it’s not a trustworthy poll when you can consistently predict their results before they are released.
Nate has a personal vendetta against trafalgar. He rates them C-. They have a higher % race predicted with a lower or equivalent margin of error compared to pollsters he rates in the A range.
I think it bothers him that they were an outlier to themselves calling the rust belt for trump and they are doing it again.
Nate doesnt know how to process outliers.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 11:46 am
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:52 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:
Trafalgar was so off in 2018, because they didn't properly gauge turnout. Trump's name wasn't on the ballot. Mid-term elections normally favor the party not occupying the White House. They did a shite job.
However, as you said, they were great in 2016. This is another presidential year. I would trust Trafalgar more than most polls, at this point.
They had a completely new model and polling methodology and it was their first midterm.
We’ll see if they do better in 2016
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:53 am to Clemsontigers02
In my area of WNC, if we were to judge based on signs, Trump is well in the lead. A majority of Biden signs you see are on public property with exception of the homes in the downtown areas, where most of the residents are relocated democrats. I would say 90% of the Trump signs are on private property.
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