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Perfect Circle
Alabama Fan
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
5671 posts

The War Has Just Begun

While I realize this one man's analysis, it raises some interesting, and sobering, thoughts.

quote:

The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion.


quote:

One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.


Unintended consequences?

Zero Hedge

quote:

The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.


quote:

Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. 


quote:

For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.
During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.

This post was edited on 10/2 at 7:51 pm


oldskule
USA Fan
Down South
Member since Mar 2016
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No matter what happens, it won't end up good for anybody.

Putin will do anything when he is pressed, and that day is coming. Scary shit!


jonnyanony
Florida Fan
Member since Nov 2020
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Anything's possible but like you say just one dudes opinion (which I cannot read in full because I don't/won't have a Facebook account)


JayDeerTay84
LSU Fan
Texas
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It never was sustainable.




Jack Carter
Member since Sep 2018
7297 posts

quote:

Putin will do anything when he is pressed, and that day is coming. Scary shit!


Then don't press him. NEGOTIATE.

Oh wait, Biden and NATO won't let that happen.


TrueTiger
LSU Fan
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Well this war is about to take a break for the winter.


SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
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quote:

Then don't press him. NEGOTIATE.

Ukraine offered to not join NATO in the very beginning of the invasion. This is what Russia had negotiated and said they wanted. When Russia was presented with the offer, they demanded the land in SE Ukraine connecting Crimea with Russia.

Russia didn't want to negotiate in good faith and revealed their whole hand: a land grab.


Perfect Circle
Alabama Fan
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
5671 posts

quote:

Anything's possible but like you say just one dudes opinion (which I cannot read in full because I don't/won't have a Facebook account)


Fixed!


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dcbl
USA Fan
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
27816 posts

quote:

which I cannot read in full because I don't/won't have a Facebook account
my man



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Perfect Circle
Alabama Fan
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
5671 posts

quote:

Well this war is about to take a break for the winter.


In the opinion of the author, a Russian offensive will begin this winter. He provides good reasons, including mobility and history, for a winter offensive.


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Tigers2010a
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2021
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Jack Keane and Mark Levin are talking destroy Russia and Putin and no worries about nuclear war. Not going to happen. Sorry, neocons have absolutely no credibility with me.


Zarkinletch416
Tennessee Fan
Deep in the Heart of Texas
Member since Jan 2020
6042 posts
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In homes, bars, beauty salons, golf courses, and neighborhoods across America, it's dawning on millions of Biden voters. They screwed up royally. They realize, as many of us tried to tell them, Joe Biden will not only collapse the USA, his perceived and actual weakness will plunge the whole world into the unthinkable. I can't even say the term - so disturbing is the probability. This nightmare would not have occurred during Donald Trump's second term.

Zelenskyy has applied for Ukraine's entry into NATO. NATO is now obliged to accept Ukraine, and THAT will trigger Vlad Putin. Already Chechen Leader (and Putin ally) Ramzan Kadyrov is urging Putin to use low-yield nuclear weapons. NOT good.

This will NOT end well.

This post was edited on 10/2 at 8:20 pm


David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
9464 posts

quote:

Ukraine offered to not join NATO in the very beginning of the invasion. This is what Russia had negotiated and said they wanted. When Russia was presented with the offer, they demanded the land in SE Ukraine connecting Crimea with Russia.

Is this accurate.

I thought the reporting was that Ukraine and Russia had essentially come to terms, but the US, through it's proxy Boris Johnson, nixed the deal. Has all the reporting been wrong?


TigerFanatic99
Chicago Cubs Fan
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
23403 posts

This is fake news. Ukraine is closing in on Moscow as we speak and are preparing a seige


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214
Bunk Moreland
Michigan Fan
Member since Dec 2010
44586 posts
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It's difficult to tell what was exactly on the table. NC Tigah had some links the other day to western accounts that supported this.
quote:

The Russian government has not offered any additional detail or evidence for Putin’s claim that Ukraine and Russia were close to a “settlement,” and that Kiev’s NATO backers intervened to “wreck” it. But the Kremlin is also not the first to assert it. The claim originated with sources close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who described the episode to Ukrainian media outlet Ukrayinska Pravda.

According to their account, talks between Ukraine and Russia collapsed after then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev in April and informed Zelensky that Putin “should be pressured, not negotiated with.” Johnson also relayed that “even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on [security] guarantees with Putin,” Western nations “are not.”

That report was followed this month by an overlooked disclosure from former White House Russia expert Fiona Hill. Citing “multiple former senior U.S. officials,” Hill wrote that “Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement” in April. Russia would withdraw to its pre-invasion position, while Ukraine would pledge not to join NATO “and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

If the Ukrainian Pravda account is accurate, then it was the UK’s Johnson, presumably acting at the behest of the US, that undermined this agreement.

LINK


Perfect Circle
Alabama Fan
S W Alabama
Member since Sep 2017
5671 posts

quote:

I thought the reporting was that Ukraine and Russia had essentially come to terms, but the US, through it's proxy Boris Johnson, nixed the deal. Has all the reporting been wrong?


I've read this as well.


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crazy4lsu
USA Fan
Member since May 2005
33146 posts

quote:

Is this accurate. I thought the reporting was that Ukraine and Russia had essentially come to terms, but the US, through it's proxy Boris Johnson, nixed the deal. Has all the reporting been wrong?


So these are two separate events. The first was mediated by Macron, where he got the exact concessions from Ukraine that Putin wanted. Putin invaded anyway.

The deal that was nixed by Johnson on his April 9th visit to Kiev came after Russia’s Northern and Northeastern offensives had failed, and they were expelled/left Ukrainian territory. That deal was predicated on ‘security guarantees’ in Zelensky’s own words from parties, namely the US, UK, France and Germany, who were not privy to negotiations in the first place. That meant that the deal was never going to be agreed, regardless of how the media frames it.


crazy4lsu
USA Fan
Member since May 2005
33146 posts

quote:

It's difficult to tell what was exactly on the table. NC Tigah had some links the other day to western accounts that supported this.


Those links all make mention of the ‘security guarantees’ as does your article. Ukraine and Russia cannot negotiate on behalf of other nations without those nations being directly involved in talks. That is not how international agreements are reached.


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David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
9464 posts

quote:

That deal was predicated on ‘security guarantees’ in Zelensky’s own words from parties, namely the US, UK, France and Germany, who were not privy to negotiations in the first place. That meant that the deal was never going to be agreed, regardless of how the media frames it.



Why would the US, UK, France and Germany object to this?
This post was edited on 10/2 at 8:14 pm


crazy4lsu
USA Fan
Member since May 2005
33146 posts

quote:

Why would the US, UK, France and Germany object to this?


Because they were not privy to negotiations. If the Ukrainians are asking for full-on security guarantees, which can mean all sorts of things, so much so that the entire negotiation process was initiated by the fact of those guarantees, you are making a multi-party agreement when talks were only bilateral. Who knows the specific verbiage of the proposal, as that is always a contentious issue in international agreements.



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