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The Syrian Civil War is Ending
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:46 pm
The Syrian Arab Army has begun their Idlib offensive.
LINK
They’ve mustered, purportedly, 25k men for the operation.
There will be two minor thrusts, from the east and west, while the main drive comes from the more open terrain to the south.
The Turks are screaming, but they’ll probably try and seal the border. They have enough problems as it is.
The Syrians didn’t take many prisoners when they cleaned up the Isis positions in the Golan, this will probably be similar.
This will also mean an end to major combat operations. Afrin and the Kurdish regions will probably return to Syrian control via negotiations.
LINK
They’ve mustered, purportedly, 25k men for the operation.
There will be two minor thrusts, from the east and west, while the main drive comes from the more open terrain to the south.
The Turks are screaming, but they’ll probably try and seal the border. They have enough problems as it is.
The Syrians didn’t take many prisoners when they cleaned up the Isis positions in the Golan, this will probably be similar.
This will also mean an end to major combat operations. Afrin and the Kurdish regions will probably return to Syrian control via negotiations.
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 1:36 am
9
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:48 pm to Lima Whiskey
What the hell website was that? 
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:53 pm to Wolfhound45
Aww, read some of the old posts there. You’ll like it.
Col. Lang was a Green Beret in Vietnam, he was a defense attaché in a lot of places, and he ran the Middle East desk for the DIA in the 90s.
Very smart, very opinionated, tells good stories.
Col. Lang was a Green Beret in Vietnam, he was a defense attaché in a lot of places, and he ran the Middle East desk for the DIA in the 90s.
Very smart, very opinionated, tells good stories.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:00 pm to Lima Whiskey
Lang on the Houthi
quote:
These qat chewing, Scotch guzzling little hill men are among the great martial peoples of the world. They live at war all their short lives. They fight each other over traditional goods; honor, water and land. When they are not doing that they fight the government, whatever government there be at any time.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:06 pm to Lima Whiskey
Deserves a "K Keep Me Posted" gif
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:18 pm to 14&Counting
The Syrian War was an awful and entirely unnecessary conflict. US support for the rebels, a truly awful lot, inflamed and prolonged what would have been a short uprising.
Beyond wrecking Syria, the war destabilized the region, from Turkey to Iraq, from Lebanon to Israel.
It also brought us dangerously close to a peer conflict with Russia. That was madness.
This also means the deaths of tens of thousands of jihadists who dream of killing Americans.
So this matters, and it’s a big deal.
Syria will be a regional heavyweight in the aftermath. They will emerge from the conflict with one of the largest and certainly the most capable conventional army in the region. The SAA is qualitatively better than both the land forces of the TSK and the ground arm of the IDF.
This change in the balance of power is dangerous, and the Israelis may invade Lebanon again, which is foolish, but that’s Israel for you, to make a point.
The war has also revealed how much better the Russians have gotten, not just since the disasters of the 90s, but since the Georgian War in 2008. They’re a very competent.
Beyond wrecking Syria, the war destabilized the region, from Turkey to Iraq, from Lebanon to Israel.
It also brought us dangerously close to a peer conflict with Russia. That was madness.
This also means the deaths of tens of thousands of jihadists who dream of killing Americans.
So this matters, and it’s a big deal.
Syria will be a regional heavyweight in the aftermath. They will emerge from the conflict with one of the largest and certainly the most capable conventional army in the region. The SAA is qualitatively better than both the land forces of the TSK and the ground arm of the IDF.
This change in the balance of power is dangerous, and the Israelis may invade Lebanon again, which is foolish, but that’s Israel for you, to make a point.
The war has also revealed how much better the Russians have gotten, not just since the disasters of the 90s, but since the Georgian War in 2008. They’re a very competent.
This post was edited on 8/15/18 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:31 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Syria will be a regional heavyweight in the aftermath. They will emerge from the conflict with one of the largest and certainly the most capable conventional army in the region. The SAA is qualitatively better than both the land forces of the TSK and the ground arm of the IDF.
Not sure I am buying that.....they are nothing without their Iranian and Russian patrons.....would have collapsed otherwise.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:33 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
There will be two minor thrusts, from the east and west, while the main drive comes from the more open terrain to the south.
Just like my last date.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:40 pm to 14&Counting
quote:
Not sure I am buying that.....they are nothing without their Iranian and Russian patrons.....would have collapsed otherwise.
They would have lost without Iranian and Russian support, absolutely. Things were dire, especially around the time of the Russian intervention. The Iranian delegation that went to Moscow told Putin that the government would fall without Russia’s help.
And that was true. It would have.
The SAA has come a long way since then. The Russians have helped them repair and modernize their existing equipment, and that’s everything from their tanks to their air defense grid. They’ve also incorporated a lot of new equipment, from night vision goggles to T-90s.
More important is the battlefield experience. The Syrians have been fighting for seven years, and the war has sharpened and hardened the SAA. Stress and victory build armies, and the Syrians have experienced a lot of both. They have excellent leaders, and a veteran army that is capable of executing complicated combined arms operations.
And this will be their show piece.
-
The SAA had few reliable formations before the war, so this is a transformational change.
This post was edited on 8/15/18 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:47 pm to 14&Counting
Barack "Noble Peace Prize Winner" Obama air dropping munitions to Sunni head chopping al nursa might have been an all time low for America
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:50 pm to lsuoilengr
quote:
Barack "Noble Peace Prize Winner" Obama air dropping munitions to Sunni head chopping al nursa might have been an all time low for America
While Samantha Power used children’s corpses to justify this moral repugnance.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:51 pm to Lima Whiskey
So break this down for me. Will there be regime change and what does this do for America-Russia relations?
tia
tia
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Syrian War was an awful and entirely unnecessary conflict. US support for the rebels, a truly awful lot, inflamed and prolonged what would have been a short uprising.
Beyond wrecking Syria, the war destabilized the region, from Turkey to Iraq, from Lebanon to Israel.
It also brought us dangerously close to a peer conflict with Russia. That was madness.
This also means the deaths of tens of thousands of jihadists who dream of killing Americans.
So this matters, and it’s a big deal.
Don't forget flooding the birthplace of western civilization with millions of violent military age male "refugees" that has made the continent less safe and completely destabilized the geopolitical situation there.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:00 pm to TX Tiger
No regime change. There will be the most modest reforms, and a national plebiscite that re-elects Assad.
He won’t need to rig the vote to win it.
He’s popular.
You’ll see a detente between the administration and Moscow. We’ll surrender our claims on Syria and withdraw. But in turn, we expect Russia to keep the peace.
For example, the Russians have deployed in the Golan Heights, to separate the Syrians and the Israelis, and to prevent any conflict.
The Pentagon will hate all of this, but Trump is bypassing them.
He won’t need to rig the vote to win it.
He’s popular.
You’ll see a detente between the administration and Moscow. We’ll surrender our claims on Syria and withdraw. But in turn, we expect Russia to keep the peace.
For example, the Russians have deployed in the Golan Heights, to separate the Syrians and the Israelis, and to prevent any conflict.
The Pentagon will hate all of this, but Trump is bypassing them.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:05 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Pentagon will hate all of this, but Trump is bypassing them.
The Pentagon may do a good job of wearing the suit but they're still politicians playing General and Admiral in fancy dress blues and they want regime change just as much as John McCain does.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:09 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:I have a hard time believing we would give up after 17 years over there. Unless we flipped Assad. I would have a hard time believing that as well. Hope you're right though and we get the hell out of there.
No regime change.
quote:Again, I have a hard time with this considering Russia was the main cock block for us in Syria.
You’ll see a detente between the administration and Moscow.
It's rather amazing to me that we just suddenly stopped hearing about the Middle East as if nothing is happening over there after we've been in the region for 17+ years.
Especially when you consider the shite that's going down in Yemen.
But I guess we have muh Russians, muh kneeling, muh Hillary, muh Omarosa to sufficiently distract us from it.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:10 pm to TX Tiger
quote:
So break this down for me. Will there be regime change and what does this do for America-Russia relations?
Absolutely no regime change. Assad will come out of this stronger as will the Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian alliance. Isis-Al Qaeda has simply moved to Yemen where they are teamed up with our ally, Saudi Arabia and have yet to make a difference in the Houthi arse whipping the Saudis are undergoing. Once again, we are partners with Al Qaeda.
quote:
This month, an Associated Press investigation found that the Saudi-led coalition has been cutting secret deals with Al Qaeda fighters, paying some to leave cities and towns, allowing others to retreat with weapons and cash. Others were recruited to join the coalition. Participants in those agreement said the U.S. was aware of the arrangements and held off on drone strikes.
LINK
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:17 pm to Big12fan
quote:So we basically just pissed away 17 years? WTF? Has Syria bent the knee to the Petro Dollar? And what about the central banks?
So break this down for me. Will there be regime change and what does this do for America-Russia relations?
Absolutely no regime change. Assad will come out of this stronger as will the Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian alliance.
quote:Yeah, that's why I have a hard time believing we would give up on Syria. Why continue the fight in Yemen?
Once again, we are partners with Al Qaeda.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:25 pm to TX Tiger
quote:
Hope you're right though and we get the hell out of there.
There’s a huge disconnect between Trump and the Pentagon. They’ve continued the Obama era policies while Trump has been working on his own private deal with Moscow.
quote:
Again, I have a hard time with this considering Russia was the main cock block for us in Syria
I understand the skepticism, but Trump isn’t chained to the Washington consensus. He doesn’t care what the Pentagon thinks, or what congress wants. If he thinks leaving is the right move, then we leave.
quote:
Especially when you consider the shite that's going down in Yemen.
That’s an especially sad little war.
Unfortunately, Trump listened to Jerusalem and the Saudis.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:27 pm to Big12fan
There’s also been an influx of foreign jihadists in Afghanistan.
Re Yemen, the Houthi keep on winning, so at least there’s that.
Re Yemen, the Houthi keep on winning, so at least there’s that.
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