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Started By
Message
Tariff end game
Posted on 8/15/18 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 8/15/18 at 3:32 pm
As the impacted items list grows and grows what are the unintended consequences?
Starting September 1 all lighting imports (bulbs, fixtures, wiring etc) will have a minimum tariff of 10% imposed. Not great for the industry and the consumer, but manageable. Unfortunately there is a high probability that the tariff is going to be 25%. The American Lighting Association is petitioning the Administration to not hit the higher number but we will see how that works out
10% price increase passed on to end customers obviously is inflationary but 25% pretty much shuts it down while still being incredibly inflationary. 95% of the worlds lighting comes from China. There is no other trade option out there
What is the overall inflation rate going to be by Year end as all the stuff is now shipping in for the Christmas season right now for clothes, electronics, tools, etc?
The US economy is running strong right now and China is having major issues. That said, the impact of this hasn't really been felt in the US yet. When it is, what will be the unintended consequences? Soybean farmers felt threatened and we tried to throw $12b parachute for them. That isn't going to be possible across all industries and the whole economy.
Does 5% or higher inflation mess up the roaring economy?
I am all for pressuring other countries for fair trade. It is well past time to address the issue. It just seems like we are biting off a ton at one time and as commodity items go way up in price we may self destruct our own economy.
I don't trust government to do things intelligently, even if they are the ones I generally support politically. Sure hope China bends the knee soon
Starting September 1 all lighting imports (bulbs, fixtures, wiring etc) will have a minimum tariff of 10% imposed. Not great for the industry and the consumer, but manageable. Unfortunately there is a high probability that the tariff is going to be 25%. The American Lighting Association is petitioning the Administration to not hit the higher number but we will see how that works out
10% price increase passed on to end customers obviously is inflationary but 25% pretty much shuts it down while still being incredibly inflationary. 95% of the worlds lighting comes from China. There is no other trade option out there
What is the overall inflation rate going to be by Year end as all the stuff is now shipping in for the Christmas season right now for clothes, electronics, tools, etc?
The US economy is running strong right now and China is having major issues. That said, the impact of this hasn't really been felt in the US yet. When it is, what will be the unintended consequences? Soybean farmers felt threatened and we tried to throw $12b parachute for them. That isn't going to be possible across all industries and the whole economy.
Does 5% or higher inflation mess up the roaring economy?
I am all for pressuring other countries for fair trade. It is well past time to address the issue. It just seems like we are biting off a ton at one time and as commodity items go way up in price we may self destruct our own economy.
I don't trust government to do things intelligently, even if they are the ones I generally support politically. Sure hope China bends the knee soon
8
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:11 pm to LSUBadger
someone will see what's happening and open a factory in the states and make a killing, then another... etc, unbunch your panties.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:14 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
95% of the worlds lighting comes from China.
And you don’t see this as a problem?
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:24 pm to LSUBadger
quote:. . . is no tariffs
Tariff end game
quote:We bought a bit of Alibaba at 167 today. Xi may try to wait the '18 election out, but he's under increasing pressure to end this.
Sure hope China bends the knee soon
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:32 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
Does 5% or higher inflation
i don't think it'll do that much
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:33 pm to dantes69
So someone should spend the money to ramp up a lighting factory in the US and then six months into it the tariff are lifted and you will never be competitive price wise?
Go sell that scheme to a bank
If the tariffs are permenant , that's a plan. Otherwise, it's pretty frickin stupid
Go sell that scheme to a bank
If the tariffs are permenant , that's a plan. Otherwise, it's pretty frickin stupid
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:37 pm to LSUBadger
so in your hypothetical world the tariff is over in 6 months?...LOLOLOL, what the hell are you whining about?
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:39 pm to dantes69
Six months is two quarters. I am capping it at 6 months because I suspect the economic data after two quarters of full implementation will force us to back off
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:41 pm to LSUBadger
quote:No.
So someone should spend the money to ramp up a lighting factory in the US and then six months into it the tariff are lifted and you will never be competitive price wise?
Not a serious question . . . . at least I hope it wasn't.
Harley-Davidson is moving elements of business overseas because of a 60% tariff. Eliminate that tariff and HD would manufacture here.
If as you suggest, without """protective tariffs""" a hypothetical company would go defunct, and given the current trade barrier imbalance, that company was never started up.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:46 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
Sure hope China bends the knee soon
You mean more than they already have? You mean like Turkey just did? You mean like our allies have been doing?
Not to worry. @real has said he's "playing with the bank's money," and that always works out well. Plus, elections are almost three whole months away. China can't possibly hold out three months. They don't think that far ahead, and Xi's facing the ballot box himself even sooner than that.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:48 pm to NC_Tigah
Sorry, I was responding to Dante
I support the effort to equalize trade. Slapping limits on Chinese investment in US companies or basically copying their rules would be pretty powerful. Particularly if we had negotiated with the EU first and got them to sign on to the deal
China not able to steal from the west would even things up quickly
I support the effort to equalize trade. Slapping limits on Chinese investment in US companies or basically copying their rules would be pretty powerful. Particularly if we had negotiated with the EU first and got them to sign on to the deal
China not able to steal from the west would even things up quickly
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:53 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
We bought a bit of Alibaba at 167 today. Xi may try to wait the '18 election out, but he's under increasing pressure to end this.
Don't follow the stock enough to trade it. Not sure why it isn't an ADR, but I'm not trusting enough of their financials to own the actual stock. It would make an interesting options play. Or contract for difference if you could find a counter party in Europe, and figure out how to legally do this while on American soil. I would think a single stock future would be best to trade it, and that is probably what I would do if I was going to trade it. That and naked options.
But I digress, and I trade differently than most retail traders I suspect.
The second part of your quote is spot on. I have spoken to Chinese clothing and toy manufacturers this week, and they seem to be leaning towards China giving in, sooner, rather than later.
We will see. And when I am more comfortable, I am going to trade on this. And I don't really trade very often any more. Just for what I consider major events.
I'll look at what the dark pools I have access to are seeing for volume during non traditional trading hours, and maybe can pick up on if banks are loading up. Usually you can tell which bank by the hours of the trades, and their style of order. Not an exact science, and not nearly as easy as it once was.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:53 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
True Free Trade™ is just around teh corner 
Posted on 8/15/18 at 4:58 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
True Free Trade™ is just around teh corner
You'd think we get more out of putting ZTE back in business than a measly $500 million Chinese loan to @real's personal Indonesia venture. As Katrina Pierson said about Omarosa last night, "This is how they repay him?" Wait, I've got that backwards. The $500 million loan came first.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:02 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
wait what? that sounds pretty brazen and hard to believe, even for this administration
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:20 pm to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:30 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
Thats a whole Pandora deal about Harley. They want to avoid tariffs by making bikes in Europe that sell in Europe.
A hard sell to cruiser riders here is that while Harleys are assembled in the good ole USA, many component systems are not.
HD admits it
A hard sell to cruiser riders here is that while Harleys are assembled in the good ole USA, many component systems are not.
HD admits it
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:34 pm to LSUBadger
There will be a huge surplus of light bulbs in China
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:41 pm to LSUBadger
you must be an "alter", because only I B Freeman starts tariff threads
Posted on 8/15/18 at 5:44 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
You mean more than they already have?
Wat?
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