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Started By
Message
Social Distancing is completely un-proven. An analogy.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:06 pm
Let's say I have an illness. Don't know what exactly it is.
A doctor tells me, 'we have this idea. Your illness may be caused by too much blood. If we bleed you a bit, it may make you better.'
Makes sense, so I let them bleed me. It sucks, and I feel worse now from the blood loss.
Two days later, my illness stops.
The doctor says 'ah-ha! Clearly, I was right. Bleeding cures this illness. I shall write it up, and contact the CDC.'
The CDC publishes guidelines: Studies suggest bleeding patients during illness cures it in 2 days. Please everyone do this now, and we can stop this dreaded sickness.
Did the bleeding cure me? Well, the evidence says that's true, right?
Wrong. There was no way to tell if bleeding me did anything positive because no adequate control was done. Maybe I would have gotten better without the bleeding, and it had no effect. Maybe it actually made it worse. There is no way to tell.
Unfortunately, this kind of thinking was (and still is) rampant in the medical community. It's why we proscribed bleeding for hundreds of years, as well as other ideas which in hindsight seem crackpot. Doctors prescribed EATING frickING MERCURY to treat syphilis. hell, Oxycotin was marketed (and BELIEVED) to be a non-addictive opioid in the last decade.
On the subject of Mercury, the ADA and other organizations CONTINUE TO CLAIM putting fricking mercury in your mouth (amalgam fillings) is perfectly safe, and you should never question the wisdom of that, ever. Even though a review of over 15 studies from around the world found elevated levels of mercury toxicity in dental nurses and dentists above the control groups of regular people. LINK
So remember, when you tell people "You have to practice social distancing!" you are either the guy demanding doctors grow a weird mold off some bread, refine it and inject you with the contents to stop an infection, or you're the guy demanding people cut themselves to cure the flu. You have no idea which one you are.
TLDR: Surviving 4 years of med school does not make you smart. It only gives you a false sense of brilliance, and makes others think you are intelligent, which is much more dangerous.
A doctor tells me, 'we have this idea. Your illness may be caused by too much blood. If we bleed you a bit, it may make you better.'
Makes sense, so I let them bleed me. It sucks, and I feel worse now from the blood loss.
Two days later, my illness stops.
The doctor says 'ah-ha! Clearly, I was right. Bleeding cures this illness. I shall write it up, and contact the CDC.'
The CDC publishes guidelines: Studies suggest bleeding patients during illness cures it in 2 days. Please everyone do this now, and we can stop this dreaded sickness.
Did the bleeding cure me? Well, the evidence says that's true, right?
Wrong. There was no way to tell if bleeding me did anything positive because no adequate control was done. Maybe I would have gotten better without the bleeding, and it had no effect. Maybe it actually made it worse. There is no way to tell.
Unfortunately, this kind of thinking was (and still is) rampant in the medical community. It's why we proscribed bleeding for hundreds of years, as well as other ideas which in hindsight seem crackpot. Doctors prescribed EATING frickING MERCURY to treat syphilis. hell, Oxycotin was marketed (and BELIEVED) to be a non-addictive opioid in the last decade.
On the subject of Mercury, the ADA and other organizations CONTINUE TO CLAIM putting fricking mercury in your mouth (amalgam fillings) is perfectly safe, and you should never question the wisdom of that, ever. Even though a review of over 15 studies from around the world found elevated levels of mercury toxicity in dental nurses and dentists above the control groups of regular people. LINK
So remember, when you tell people "You have to practice social distancing!" you are either the guy demanding doctors grow a weird mold off some bread, refine it and inject you with the contents to stop an infection, or you're the guy demanding people cut themselves to cure the flu. You have no idea which one you are.
TLDR: Surviving 4 years of med school does not make you smart. It only gives you a false sense of brilliance, and makes others think you are intelligent, which is much more dangerous.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 4:12 pm
10
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:12 pm to cokebottleag
quote:Bad analogy. And "unproven" for what?
Social Distancing is completely un-proven. An analogy.
With certainty, social distancing prevents the spread of infectious disease. In extreme cases, it's enough to stamp it out. With wuflu, it's unlikely to do that. Rather, the impact will likely just be pushing deaths out instead of front-loading them.
Now, LOCKDOWNS are un-proven. Is that what you meant?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:15 pm to cokebottleag
Good enough. I like the simplicity. As a side note, (true story), I/We had to fire an intern we had mistakenly hired on full time. So, he went to med school and became a doctor.
I'll add, he was a "Creole" gentleman though.
I'll add, he was a "Creole" gentleman though.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:18 pm to cokebottleag
amazing how I dont know a single person to even have a fever. Im told the bodies are piled up all around me yet I never see any. there is no virus, its not real, Trump warned us that he was the only one we could trust and he was right again.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:19 pm to KIngTrump
Viruses aren't real at all. Totally made up fear mongering.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:20 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
With certainty,
As I noted on you other OP which you can read here, even the CDC's own reasoning cites a study of computer models, noting there is high probability for intrinsic bias in the data.
If you have some kind of correctly done research to link, showing that social distancing will cut the spread of a virus, you have my attention. I am all fricking ears for that.
quote:
Now, LOCKDOWNS are un-proven. Is that what you meant?
No. That's an even bigger stupidity.
My whole point here as been to educate those (like you) who see "X and Y, therefore Z" and think 'yep, that makes sense. I guess that's right'. NO. THATS WRONG. If an authority figure tells me 'for sure, the sky is blue' I'm looking to see what they define as blue wavelength light, because sure as frick, they are going to use that declaration to tell me what to do.
Maybe social distancing does something. Maybe it doesn't. But there is NO frickING PROOF. It's all an assumption, like we assumed astrology determined who your soul mate was.
frickING GODDAMN IT.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:30 pm to Mickey Goldmill
Pretty sure that’s a troll.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:38 pm to the808bass
quote:do you know anyone whos been sick?
Pretty sure that’s a troll.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:39 pm to cokebottleag
Damn it man! You must be a natural red haired girl. 
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:45 pm to KIngTrump
I work in healthcare. So I unfortunately knew a bunch of sick people. I don’t know anyone who died from CV.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:45 pm to the808bass
quote:
Pretty sure that’s a troll.
I mean, its gotta be, right?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:51 pm to cokebottleag
Dod you not see Dr Birx presentation today?
All the states were red/orange due to COVID spread back in March. Then week over week they all turned green - which demonstrated declining infections.
She had several other charts that the data showed downward trends - and in fact - it appears social distancing has all infections for all diseases well below normal baselines.
I’d say there’s more than enough data to demonstrate its successful
All the states were red/orange due to COVID spread back in March. Then week over week they all turned green - which demonstrated declining infections.
She had several other charts that the data showed downward trends - and in fact - it appears social distancing has all infections for all diseases well below normal baselines.
I’d say there’s more than enough data to demonstrate its successful
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:52 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Social Distancing is completely un-proven.
I don't feel like looking it up because it was probably a long long long time ago, but I'd imagine there were studies done with respect to how diseases were spread.
Stick a healthy guy in a room, by himself, with no contact and he won't get whatever disease everyone else is getting.
Stick a sick person in a room with healthy people for an extended period of time and most will likely get it.
I'd just chalk it up to common sense.
I don't think the question of "does social distancing work?", is "Is it worth the economic impact?" as now you're forcing businesses to operate at limited capacity.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:53 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
All the states were red/orange due to COVID spread back in March. Then week over week they all turned green - which demonstrated declining infections.
Are you saying that the viruses spread through the population and then stopped spreading as fast? Like every virus?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:54 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
- it appears social distancing has all infections for all diseases well below normal baselines.
Nah, fam. Missouri is right at its normal flu deaths. No change for the end of March until today.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:55 pm to cokebottleag
quote:I mean, how do you think every pandemic has been addressed since the dawn of time? Taken to the extreme, if every single person went home and stayed there, you are honestly arguing that the virus would continue to spread? By...magic?
social distancing will cut the spread of a virus
Posted on 5/22/20 at 4:59 pm to Big Scrub TX
All I’m asking man. Give me a peer reviewed study. I’ll amend to “mostly unproven” because single studies must be tested with others.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:04 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I mean, how do you think every pandemic has been addressed since the dawn of time? Taken to the extreme, if every single person went home and stayed there, you are honestly arguing that the virus would continue to spread? By...magic?
Magic would be every single person going home and staying there.
Social distancing for more than a few days as practiced by a country of 330 million (mostly) free people occupying just under 4 million square miles - that social distancing will not prevent the spread of a readily transmittable virus.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:06 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
mean, how do you think every pandemic has been addressed since the dawn of time?
Quarantining the infected and exposed.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 5:10 pm to cokebottleag
Because we all know the virus can travel 6 feet, but not 6 feet and 1 inch.
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