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deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
48818 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

This is very important data. Y’all need to learn to take criticism.


OP wasn’t critical of anything. Just posting the data and the fact it could point to a downwards trend which could hurt Trump if it persists.

Also May could rebound strong just like March did after a weak February


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RobbBobb
Matt Flynn, BCS MVP
Member since Feb 2007
18526 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
lulz, did you miss this?
quote:

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales gaining 0.2% in April. Retail sales in April increased 3.1% from a year ago.


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20
Homesick Tiger
LSU Fan
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
42230 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
Dow is up, Dow is down. Business as usual. What's your point? That we're in an economic downslide after one month of negativity? You sound like a person who goes home after the first quarter because your team is behind and that's all the evidence you need that the game is lost.


ShawSawTheMoor
LSU Fan
China Grove, Brazoria Co. TX FM 521
Member since Apr 2019
245 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

if the economy tanks he will have trouble with re election

So what solutions do Beto, Bernie, Booker, Buttigieg et al offer that are election-winning magic bullets?


beebefootballfan
Arkansas Fan
Member since Mar 2011
12441 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
That’s what happens when gas goes up $1 a gallon or more.


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GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
47587 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
I don't see any links within the article. Is the increase/decrease data cited based on the previous month or the same month from last year?

If compared to March, this may have something to do with a relative drop in April

quote:

Overall consumer spending, which includes spending on services such as haircuts and travel, jumped in March by the most in nearly a decade.


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
31351 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

I don't see any links within the article. Is the increase/decrease data cited based on the previous month or the same month from last year?
The 0.2% drop is relative to March 2019 but that also represents a 3.1% increase from April 2019.

So for this year’s retails sales (month to month): January had a big decrease, February had a small decrease, March had a big increase, and April small decrease.

So overall I think this shows a small slowing of sales, compares to a pretty big year last year. I think some of the big jumps might be explained by the government shutdown with January negatively impacted by both less available to spend and delays in early tax returns, February negatively impacted by delays in returns, March positively impacted by those returns being pushed to March, and April negatively impacted by the normalization after those unique factors in March.

Maybe those had nothing to do with it, since month to month data is inherently volatile, but regardless, the smoothing is the trend appears to show a relative slowdown but still solid sales overall.


90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
22596 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

specifically, do you understand the inherent flaws in the FED NOW forecast...it is lambasted on many levels and is used AT BEST as a supplementary tool.


i think you meant to reply to me, not to zach

I don't care if "it is lambasted"; it's certainly decent for a rolling benchmark. And no one around here lambasted it (before or after the fact) when it was calling for 5+ or 4+ in quarters that wound up way, way lower.

I wouldn't say it's the best model, but it's frequently-updated and fairly transparent, not to mention free. There are certainly other forecasting houses whose projections i consistently prefer over GDPNow's. But despite the fact that it's not the best, it certainly ain't bad.

Really, I starting basing any tracking threads i've made around it because of how highly-touted it has been here at certain times, but also because of how it gets updated on the release of more important data points as they roll out over the months. That doesn't mean that i adopt their number as my own expectation.

BTW, my 2018 prediction, made and posted on this board in February 2018, was for 2.9-3.0. And what was the result? 2.9. (Obviously, i can link the prediction.)

Also btw, GDPNow is projecting 1.1% as of today for this quarter. As i said, i think that's a good bit too low, although the 4.2% that we saw at this time last year looks more and more like it's out of the question too.


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90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
22596 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
remember that those comparisons to 12 months ago don't adjust for inflation



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10
Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
35978 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
Obama's economy!


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Member since 2001
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GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
47587 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

January had a big decrease


This was in the article.

quote:

Retail sales have been on a seesaw pattern, rising at a healthy pace in January, then falling in February


Not disputing anything, just trying to understand how they arrive at these figures. Would that be a healthy rise as compared to December?

This is also in the article, which seems to contradict the above quote

quote:

jumped in March by the most in nearly a decade, but that followed small increases in the previous two months.


So a healthy rise in January, followed by a decrease in February. But later in the article, March followed two months of modest increases. Am I reading this all wrong, or this article all over the place?


90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
22596 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

This is also in the article, which seems to contradict the above quote

article's not explained very well

the first part, about healthy rise in Jan followed by fall in Feb is only correct if it's a month-over-month comparison

the second one, about small increases in Jan/Feb followed by one of the biggest in years for March, is only correct if you're comparing Jan19/Jan18, Feb19/Feb18, and Mar19/Mar18

in other words, Feb19 was lower than Jan19, but higher than Feb18


GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
47587 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
I see.

So bottom line:

Compared to previous month:
January 2019 - healthy rise
February 2019 - decrease of a size not described
March - increase of a size not described
April - either small decrease or unknown based on article content

Compared to its 2018 counterpart:
January 2019 - small increase
February 2019 - small increase
March 2019 - biggest increase in a decade
April - either small decrease or unknown based on article content

eta:
It may be better to read whatever CNBC read instead of reading CNBC's account of it.
This post was edited on 5/15 at 1:24 pm


sodcutterjones
LSU Fan
Member since May 2018
484 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

That we're in an economic downslide after one month of negativity? You sound like a person who goes home after the first quarter because your team is behind and that's all the evidence you need that the game is lost.


Well he is a State fan, so...


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90proofprofessional
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2004
22596 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
yeah basically. only thing that's weird is that the March m/m jump wasn't the biggest in a decade bc there was a bigger one in 2017. and april19 was only a decrease in m/m terms, not compared to april18.

month/month:


month19/month18:

in retail you see an apparent slowdown in retail from late 2018 fairly clearly

quote:

It may be better to read whatever CNBC read instead of reading CNBC's account of it.

true 100% of the time and not just for cnbc; they're probably one of the least bad
This post was edited on 5/15 at 1:29 pm


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deeprig9
Georgia Fan
Member since Sep 2012
33638 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

Sales dropped 0.2% in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, after a big 1.7% jump in March.


Someone help me understand this.

So sales went up 1.7% in March.

Then only went up 1.5% in April, so that's a .2% drop?

Or is it that April is .2% lower than last April?


GRTiger
USA Fan
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
47587 posts

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

So sales went up 1.7% in March.

Then only went up 1.5% in April, so that's a .2% drop?


April saw a .2% drop in sales from March, which would be a 1.5% increase from February.

Based on the charts above, we have not seen a monthly y/y sales result that went down since 2010 or so.

Eta
quote:

only thing that's weird is that the March m/m jump wasn't the biggest in a decade bc there was a bigger one in 2017


Definitely a bigger dollar figure jump, but possibly the percent wasn't.
This post was edited on 5/15 at 2:41 pm


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
31351 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

This was in the article.
I had the month wrong, it was December they had the big drop of 1.6%, following an essentially unchanged November (0.004% decrease).

So by my quick calculations over the last 6 months, the month over month, total retail sales were:

November—unchanged
December—1.6% decrease
January—0.8% increase
February—0.3% decrease
March—1.7% increase
April—0.2% decrease

So basically over the last 6 months from October to April, retail sales are up 0.34%. And I guess a variable to follow that (Jydris or 90proof could verify or not) is more applicable to consumer spending’s impact is retail sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline. And that’s up a slightly better 0.7% over the last 6 months.

Here are the historical data (doesn’t include April) and the April report and its data to peruse or catch any mistakes I may have made.

Retail Sales Historical Data

April Retail Sales Report


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
31351 posts
 Online 

re: Retail sales in April point to slowing economy
quote:

Definitely a bigger dollar figure jump, but possibly the percent wasn't.
I just looked it up. September 2017 had a 2% increase. That followed 7 months where sales only increased 0.9% total. Things picked up for the rest of the year, with December up 5.8% year over year.
This post was edited on 5/15 at 7:27 pm


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