re: Regime change how is that possible without boots on the ground

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It’s highly unlikely that meaningful political change could happen in Iran under the current conditions. The leadership, particularly the Supreme Leader and the clerical establishment, maintains an iron grip on the country. The military—especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—is deeply loyal to the regime and acts as both an enforcer and a power base. Meanwhile, the media is tightly controlled, and online discourse is heavily monitored, with dissent quickly suppressed.

Over the past decade, the government has systematically dismantled or absorbed any oppositional political movements, civil society groups, or reformist factions that could pose a challenge. Any attempts at organizing dissent—whether through protests, political activism, or online campaigns—have been met with arrests, censorship, or worse.

If the Ayatollah were to die or step down, power wouldn’t automatically shift to the people. More likely, the IRGC and hardline clerics would consolidate control, potentially ushering in a military-theocratic regime that’s even less tolerant of dissent. In short, the current structure is designed to ensure continuity of control, not democratic transition.

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