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RCP final polling averages 2016 vs current 2020
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:33 pm
Couple of things that stand out. Trump had more favorable averages in every state in 2016 aside from Wisconsin which is very close to the same.
We have another day of polling to go which will probably tighten things like it did in 2016 the day before the election. But as things stand right now, the polls are going to have to be more wrong this year than they were 4 years ago.
2016 Florida - TRUMP +0.2
2020 - Biden +0.7
2016 Pennsylvania - Clinton +1.9
2020 - Biden +4.3
2016 Wisconsin - Clinton +6.5
2020 - Biden +6.6
2016 Michigan - Clinton +3.4
2020 - Biden +6.1
2016 North Carolina - TRUMP +1.0
2020 - Biden +0.3
2016 Arizona - TRUMP +4.0
2020 Biden - +1.1
2016 Ohio - TRUMP +3.1
2020 - Biden +0.2
2016 Nevada - TRUMP +0.8
2020 - Biden - +3.6
2016 Iowa - Trump +3.0
2020 - Trump +0.7
2016 Georgia - Trump +4.8
2020 - Biden +0.8
We have another day of polling to go which will probably tighten things like it did in 2016 the day before the election. But as things stand right now, the polls are going to have to be more wrong this year than they were 4 years ago.
2016 Florida - TRUMP +0.2
2020 - Biden +0.7
2016 Pennsylvania - Clinton +1.9
2020 - Biden +4.3
2016 Wisconsin - Clinton +6.5
2020 - Biden +6.6
2016 Michigan - Clinton +3.4
2020 - Biden +6.1
2016 North Carolina - TRUMP +1.0
2020 - Biden +0.3
2016 Arizona - TRUMP +4.0
2020 Biden - +1.1
2016 Ohio - TRUMP +3.1
2020 - Biden +0.2
2016 Nevada - TRUMP +0.8
2020 - Biden - +3.6
2016 Iowa - Trump +3.0
2020 - Trump +0.7
2016 Georgia - Trump +4.8
2020 - Biden +0.8
14
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:34 pm to Stidham8
Nope no difference in shy trump voters
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:37 pm to Stidham8
With that said, my above comments are facts based off of the polls. Will they be right again? That remains to be seen.
I personally expect Trump to get Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and North Carolina. They're all well within the margin of error and Trump should exceed polling numbers by at least a point or so.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are a stretch right now to realistically say Trump gets one of them.
I personally expect Trump to get Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and North Carolina. They're all well within the margin of error and Trump should exceed polling numbers by at least a point or so.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are a stretch right now to realistically say Trump gets one of them.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:37 pm to Stidham8
So why didn't you list how much Trump won by or lost by in each of those states if you're trying to make a point. What you posted were not factual. What I'm asking for is.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:39 pm to Stidham8
quote:
my above comments are facts based off of the polls
No they aren't facts, it's conjecture.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:39 pm to Stidham8
Election is hours away and you goons are still pounding away about MUH fricking polls. Smh. Who gives a frick? The ULTIMATE POLL is about to be decided.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:40 pm to Stidham8
Dude, like in wisky the Washington post abc poll had Biden with 17 point lead guess what that poll in in the Real clear avg., Real Clear avg. means nothing anymore and everybody knows it... These polls are suppression polls pure and simple...
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:41 pm to BigSalmon
quote:
Election is hours away and you goons are still pounding away about MUH fricking polls. Smh. Who gives a frick? The ULTIMATE POLL is about to be decided.
We saw a lot of late action go Trump's way 4 years ago and we're seeing a little bit of it right now but not to that same level, at least not yet.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:41 pm to Stidham8
If trump is getting NC, AZ, FL... then he’s also getting WI, MI, and PA.
Youre cherry picking to look impartial but it makes your logic inconsistent.
Youre cherry picking to look impartial but it makes your logic inconsistent.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:41 pm to Stidham8
Rcp average is messed up by several outliers and look at the Marquette final poll for 2016 and now. Not just the top two numbers but the “undecideds”.
Look at the des monies register.
Look at the des monies register.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:42 pm to Stidham8
When I see all the violence and rage against Trump supporters I'm sure a lot of people are the say nothing and vote type.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:42 pm to Stidham8
I was getting worried at first . Then I realized you were talking about the fake polls.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:42 pm to Stidham8
How many cuck threads are you gonna start?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:43 pm to Stidham8
I have a feeling Real Clear Politics tinkers with which polls they included in their 2016 state projections after the election to make them look tighter. Rich Baris says he has screenshots the day of the election which shows differing averages more in Clinton's favor than you find now.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:43 pm to Stidham8
Polls are useless. Comes down to cheating in Pennsylvania.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:44 pm to N97883
quote:
If trump is getting NC, AZ, FL... then he’s also getting WI, MI, and PA.
Youre cherry picking to look impartial but it makes your logic inconsistent.
I'm giving him around +1-2% on top of what the polls are giving him. That puts him ahead in the states I listed but not in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:46 pm to Stidham8
Id like to see Trafalgar 2016 vs 2020
Also Wisconsin is dead on with 2016 vs 2020. Trump wins Wisconsin for sure
Also Wisconsin is dead on with 2016 vs 2020. Trump wins Wisconsin for sure
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:47 pm to Jake88
quote:
I have a feeling Real Clear Politics tinkers with which polls they included in their 2016 state projections after the election to make them look tighter.
RCP can select which polls to include in the average to achieve the desired result. Sheeple who don't care, are led along blissfully ignorant.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:47 pm to BigSalmon
quote:
Election is hours away and you goons are still pounding away about MUH fricking polls. Smh. Who gives a frick? The ULTIMATE POLL is about to be decided.
Exactly and no one is examining the newly registered voters that skew the whole dynamic. Only time will tell, and the Republicans have had a ground game for quite some time unlike the Democrats...
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:49 pm to Stidham8
quote:
74% of attendees at President Trump’s rally in Michigan today have not voted yet in 2020! 32% didn’t vote in 2016 and 48% were not registered as Republicans.
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