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Question regarding 538 polling grades
Posted on 10/18/20 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 12:50 pm
I saw the trafalgar mi senate poll so I got a bit curious. I trust trafalgar after 2016 by far the most but I was curious what the “poll guru thought” because I remember them being a “poorly regarded poll”
He grades trafalgar as C-. By his own sites counts they have gotten 75% races called correctly. Ok 75 is good not great I guess let’s see what one of their highly rated agencies has.
He rates Siena/new York times A+ Only 69% correct.
Abcnews/Washington post A+ 72%
Silly me I thought polls were supposed to be correct I guess?
He grades trafalgar as C-. By his own sites counts they have gotten 75% races called correctly. Ok 75 is good not great I guess let’s see what one of their highly rated agencies has.
He rates Siena/new York times A+ Only 69% correct.
Abcnews/Washington post A+ 72%
Silly me I thought polls were supposed to be correct I guess?
9
Posted on 10/18/20 at 12:52 pm to Adam Banks
Throwing out fancy graphs doesn’t make you any better than a 3rd grader doing “scientific” polling.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 12:54 pm to Adam Banks
I remember seeing Nate Silver for the first time on Election Day 2016 and thinking how I ever could have trusted somebody who looked that disheveled in a professional setting. He looked like he just woke up.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 12:56 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Silly me I thought polls were supposed to be correct I guess?
Just like betting odds are supposed to be correct.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 1:33 pm to Adam Banks
538 is just confirmation propaganda that is there to try and legitimize the other bullshite propaganda
Posted on 10/18/20 at 1:47 pm to Adam Banks
It has more to do with their margin of error than it does with their races called correctly.
Predicting a money line winner is easy. Predicting against the spread is harder.
Trafalgar’s average error is 5.6 and they use IVR (aka “Robopolls”)
The methodology is the main reason for their rating, IMO.
Predicting a money line winner is easy. Predicting against the spread is harder.
Trafalgar’s average error is 5.6 and they use IVR (aka “Robopolls”)
The methodology is the main reason for their rating, IMO.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 1:56 pm to Adam Banks
You need to remember Nate Silver’s goal is to attract blog views, not be accurate.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 2:44 pm to Adam Banks
538 is a pointless waste of time
Posted on 10/18/20 at 3:26 pm to NawlinsTiger9
I was coming here to post almost this word for word.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 3:36 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
It has more to do with their margin of error than it does with their races called correctly.
Predicting a money line winner is easy. Predicting against the spread is harder.
Trafalgar’s average error is 5.6
Ok may I present into evidence his rating of Fox News/beacon research poll. Average error is 5.6. Correct calls 71%. Rated A-.
Monmouth polling. A+ rated. 5.4 error.
I’m fairly certain his modeling takes into account the poll grading as well.
It’s just another example of public polling manipulation. We are told that trafalgar is trash and these others are the gold standard yet when you look at it that’s garbage.
As far as robo polling vs live polling who gives a shite if they produce similar outcomes?
This post was edited on 10/18/20 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 10/18/20 at 3:40 pm to jlovel7
quote:
I remember seeing Nate Silver for the first time on Election Day 2016 and thinking how I ever could have trusted somebody who looked that disheveled
How can you not spend 5 minutes to get yourself together before going on national TV? He looks like he was in a middle closet session with his boyfriend before having to come on camera.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:01 pm to Adam Banks
You're forgetting the statistical bias of the polls being measured. Basically, what about your error rate was wrong, and that is where TG has missed the mark on some of their polls.
Its not that there poll called a race a certain way, but did the actual demographics of that specific poll bare-out in the results. Let's say they called a Democratic candidate win and they project that 98%D 45%I 2%R would be the deciding margin. Once the ballots are casted its actually 97%D 47%I 1%R we see that lead to a D victory. While they predicted the Democrats victory how they got there was wrong.
Its not that there poll called a race a certain way, but did the actual demographics of that specific poll bare-out in the results. Let's say they called a Democratic candidate win and they project that 98%D 45%I 2%R would be the deciding margin. Once the ballots are casted its actually 97%D 47%I 1%R we see that lead to a D victory. While they predicted the Democrats victory how they got there was wrong.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:05 pm to Adam Banks
He grades Quinnipiac B+ and they suck arse, especially in Florida.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:09 pm to Adam Banks
I'm sure it's like the Better Business Bureau and Nate rates the ones who give the most money to his site the highest.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 5:09 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:There is little wrong with robo polls. There are polls with multi modes of collection that are superior to live phone calls. Especially since response rates are now 2% when it used to be 60%.
Trafalgar’s average error is 5.6 and they use IVR (aka “Robopolls”)
The methodology is the main reason for their rating, IMO
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