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Projected Number of Days Until Reaching Herd Immunity Threshold
Posted on 7/18/20 at 7:59 am
Posted on 7/18/20 at 7:59 am
This is a great article walking through the covid numbers and gives great insight to Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), Makes a very strong case explaining the "Second Wave::
Article Link
Based on the article above and the studies linked in it, it is estimated that the HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) is between 10-20% (originally projected at 70%). Sweden achieved a 17% HIT.
Additionally, multiple studies have been conducted to project the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR or CFR - Case). Here is a summary of the studies Article LINK. The CDC has projected a .26% IFR (annual flu is .10%) Article LINK.
If we take the weighted average (weighted more towards the US projections), we get to an IFR of .185%. From these two estimates and the actual number of daily new cases, we can project how many days are left until we have achieved the HIT for each state as well as the projected number of additional deaths.
As you can see, there are a few outliers. Throw out NJ - like NY, they reclassified 2,700 non-covid deaths as covid on June 25. So their actual number of new deaths is close to NY.
LA, MS and AZ are still showing high rates of increasing cases and deaths. My guess is their IFR will exceed the .185% threshold when it is all said an done.
Just thought it was worth guesstimating to see when this thing might end.
Article Link
Based on the article above and the studies linked in it, it is estimated that the HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) is between 10-20% (originally projected at 70%). Sweden achieved a 17% HIT.
Additionally, multiple studies have been conducted to project the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR or CFR - Case). Here is a summary of the studies Article LINK. The CDC has projected a .26% IFR (annual flu is .10%) Article LINK.
If we take the weighted average (weighted more towards the US projections), we get to an IFR of .185%. From these two estimates and the actual number of daily new cases, we can project how many days are left until we have achieved the HIT for each state as well as the projected number of additional deaths.
As you can see, there are a few outliers. Throw out NJ - like NY, they reclassified 2,700 non-covid deaths as covid on June 25. So their actual number of new deaths is close to NY.
LA, MS and AZ are still showing high rates of increasing cases and deaths. My guess is their IFR will exceed the .185% threshold when it is all said an done.
Just thought it was worth guesstimating to see when this thing might end.
17
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:03 am to BaldEagleHey
I’m not reading all that shite. How many Estimated days?
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:05 am to BaldEagleHey
This looks great. Thank you for posting this.
I had suspected for awhile the 70-80% needed for herd immunity was incorrect seeing as how the virus swept through Europe without millions of deaths.
Just a few months away in a lot of states.
I had suspected for awhile the 70-80% needed for herd immunity was incorrect seeing as how the virus swept through Europe without millions of deaths.
Just a few months away in a lot of states.
This post was edited on 7/18/20 at 8:11 am
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:06 am to Northwestern tiger
Check the bottom table.
LA already has reached HIT.
Alabama and Florida are at around 13%, approximately 80-90 days till HIT at current rates.
LA already has reached HIT.
Alabama and Florida are at around 13%, approximately 80-90 days till HIT at current rates.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:06 am to BaldEagleHey
The media is telling me herd immunity is a lie and won’t ever happen
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:07 am to Tiguar
Not to thread jack...but is this why we aren’t seeing a surge in Europe? Aside from the amount of testing we are doing.
This post was edited on 7/18/20 at 8:09 am
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:13 am to Tiguar
80-90 days might be too late.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:14 am to PNW_TigerSaint
It’s better than just always being a lingering threat until the Microsoft vaccine
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:18 am to Tiguar
277 days for Texas? Nope, don’t like that at all.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:19 am to BaldEagleHey
I project Election Day is the threshold
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:20 am to BigB123
quote:
277 days for Texas? Nope, don’t like that at all.
Retards shut down Texas for no reason and now we are still a fricking year from HIT
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:22 am to BaldEagleHey
quote:
Projected Number of Days Until Reaching Herd Immunity Threshold
Ive spent several minutes searching for a simple number teased in your subject title
Is there a number of days to be found anywhere??
Make it easy on us for this stuff.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:23 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Retards shut down Texas for no reason
The quasi-national shutdown didn’t make any sense. It was a feel good response. “We’re all in this together.”
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:25 am to BigB123
quote:
277 days for Texas? Nope, don’t like that at all
could hasten that up by letting the bug do its work now.
same number of people are gonna die before herd immunity is achieved - this just spreads it out over longer timeframe - Dems are hell-bent on it being long enough to sway an election.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:27 am to BaldEagleHey
quote:
Guess what? Scientists are now showing evidence that up to 81% of us can mount a strong response to COVID-19 without ever having been exposed to it before:
But it’s novel!!
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:59 am to Turbeauxdog
Yeah remember the calculation is a function of current infection rate which isn’t completely accurate to use.
Texas is geographically large and will take a bit to ramp up but I’d imagine it won’t take long once it gets going.
New York and LA reached HIT quickly because of seeding and spreading events.
Texas is geographically large and will take a bit to ramp up but I’d imagine it won’t take long once it gets going.
New York and LA reached HIT quickly because of seeding and spreading events.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 9:08 am to ChineseBandit58
quote:
Is there a number of days to be found anywhere??
Look on the RED line in the bottom table. It gives the number of days by State.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 9:11 am to BaldEagleHey
How do we ever know if we have reached Heard Immunity if everyone is screwing with the numbers?
Posted on 7/18/20 at 9:14 am to Tiguar
quote:
Yeah remember the calculation is a function of current infection rate which isn’t completely accurate to use.
If you take the 7 day rolling deaths per day average, divide by 0.0026 and multiply by 7, you can see that it would be reached relatively quickly.
After today, the 7-day moving average should be around 120 deaths. That should represent ~46k infections. Over a week, that would represent 323k infected. Meaning at the current rate (which is actually likely accelerating), Texas would gain around 1.1% towards the HIT this week.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 9:15 am to NewbombII
quote:
How do we ever know if we have reached Heard Immunity if everyone is screwing with the numbers?
That’s a fair point. But the data is all we’ve got. Plus, if we use current deaths to project a faster progression to HIT, maybe they slow down the death reporting.
In likelihood, the deaths reporting is mostly screwy with regards to date. To that end, they still represent a progression towards HIT.
This post was edited on 7/18/20 at 9:17 am
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