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Message
NYT Nate Cohn calls it for Biden
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:11 pm
quote:
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the four states likeliest to decide the presidency, according to the final Times/Siena surveys of the campaign
Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44
Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42
The story in AZ/FL/PA is basically the same one we've had all campaign: Biden winning the 2016 electorate, as he wins a critical sliver of Trump supporters, loses very little Clinton vote, and wins big among minor party vote--with new voters padding the edge.
Florida is a bit different. Biden is losing a critical sliver of Clinton vote, as well, and Trump still wins in 2016 voters--something I don't really recall in prior surveys. Instead, Biden wins with new voters. Right or wrong, it's a more uncertain basis for a lead IMO
Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows
Twitter thread
quote:
Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a clear advantage over President Trump across four of the most important presidential swing states, a new poll shows, bolstered by the support of voters who did not participate in the 2016 election and who now appear to be turning out in large numbers to cast their ballots, mainly for the Democrat.
Mr. Biden, the former vice president, is ahead of Mr. Trump in the Northern battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as in the Sun Belt states of Florida and Arizona, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. His strength is most pronounced in Wisconsin, where he has an outright majority of the vote and leads Mr. Trump by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent.
Might as well not even vote, guys!
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 2:12 pm
11
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:12 pm to stout
quote:
Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44
Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42
I want what that guy is having
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:13 pm to FulshearTiger
Imagine seriously believing Trump is down 11 points in Wisconsin
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:14 pm to stout
quote:
Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44
Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:18 pm to stout
i was listening to the radio show "wait wait don't tell me" on NPR while driving to lunch, and never-trumper Mike Murphy was on. his prediction was Biden running away with it, with FLA going blue very early in the night.
i got a kick out of that.
i got a kick out of that.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:21 pm to stout
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:21 pm to stout
One nice thing that will come out of Trump's second victory is the complete and utter destruction of political polling.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:23 pm to Darth_Vader
I was about to post a Hillary reference. We heard ALL OF THIS in 2016.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:23 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
the New York Times....
quote:
Hillary Clinton has a 85% chance to win
As one sided as they have become, that headline could have been from the last week
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 2:26 pm to stout
My biggest fear is the mass youth vote. They are fully convinced Trump is a Nazi and their schools reinforce this. Speak to one of them. They truly believe it and it insane.
If they come out in massive force, then that is my biggest worry.
Trump will win elderly
Trump will win more Democrats over then Republicans switching to Biden
Trump will get the same support he had in 2016.
Trump will also get more black votes and latino votes.
But generally the young voters do not show up. They are this election..and I'd bet its 70 percent Biden.
If they come out in massive force, then that is my biggest worry.
Trump will win elderly
Trump will win more Democrats over then Republicans switching to Biden
Trump will get the same support he had in 2016.
Trump will also get more black votes and latino votes.
But generally the young voters do not show up. They are this election..and I'd bet its 70 percent Biden.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:17 pm to stout
This man is writing this as an opinion piece because the numbers are mythical. Also, I can't trust anything he says with some dude's wiener in his mouth.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:36 pm to stout
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:42 pm to stout
Anyone claiming Trump will lose FL should never be allowed to cover politics again.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:46 pm to PorkSammich
quote:
Anyone claiming Trump will win FL should never be allowed to cover politics again.
Trump will win FL. How much do you want to bet?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:50 pm to stout
At this point, I don't even think they believe it. It is just to set up the contested election talking points that will emerge.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:53 pm to UcobiaA
They believe it. Everyone believes it. Vegas, the stock market, foreign governments. Everyone but Political Talk on Tigerdroppings
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:55 pm to ROPO
quote:
Everyone believes it. Vegas, the stock market, foreign governments.
You are fake news
Las Vegas Oddsmaker Announces Final Prediction: Trump Electoral Landslide Coming
Posted on 11/1/20 at 3:59 pm to Gatorbait2008
quote:
But generally the young voters do not show up. They are this election..and I'd bet its 70 percent Biden.
I am not buying all young people fall into that category.
Anecdotally I spend a lot of time on Tiktok with my 13 year old daughter so I can at least censor some of the stuff. A lot of pro Trump videos on there from young people.
Of course Biden has some liberal young supporters but from what I've seen it isn't as lopsided as you think.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:00 pm to stout
quote:
Trump will win FL. How much do you want to bet?
Whoops. Meant claiming Biden will win FL.
Trump is winning FL by 3+ points.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 4:01 pm to stout
So they are doubling down on if Trump wins it’s going to be because he stole it. Gotcha.
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