New Louisiana poll: JBE 48 Rispone 46 Undecided 6

Key takeaway

That 6% is very likely Abraham voters

The vast majority will be going to rispone in the run off

To me, this poll screams something like a 50.5-49.5 type result for rispone

15% of Trump voters and 10% of Abraham voters are backing JBE now?

I know polls are BS, but I also know there’s a lot of stupid people out there, so...

That last picture is sad.

quote:

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So if I’m reading that right, 2% of voters that voted Rispone the first time are now flipping and voting JBE?

bullshite.

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...and vice versa.

That might be people being unwilling to tell the truth. Either way, it doesn't skew the numbers.

I actually think Rispone is the slight favourite now. From what I can tell the sharp money on PredictIt agrees with me. A few of us are talking and holding our fire until Saturday returns start coming in. We think first precincts / early voting will look good for JBE and then like in Kentucky Rispone will rally (only this time he’ll overtake JBE unlike in KY).

Don’t be shocked if JBE wins. Louisiana is a weird place.

Agreed. All recent polls have JBE winning by 2-3.5 pts. My prediction is JBE wins by 1-2%, with a huge black, state workers, teachers, and Medicaid recipient turnout. Scalise or Kennedy could have won decisively.

I wouldn't over-analyze the 2% thing either way. The poll had less than 700 people I believe. If you are taking only 2% of people who voted Rispone/Edwards the first time out of a total pool of 700, we are talking about a handful of people.

Edwards still can’t eclipse 50. Much of that 6% is going to Rispone.