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NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting odds
Posted by jbdawgs03 on 6/1/23 at 6:47 am135
538 GOP Primary Polling Average
Trump — 54.3% (+33.4)
DeSantis — 20.9%
Pence — 5.4%
Haley — 4.6%
Ramaswamy — 3.6%
T. Scott — 2%
@Polymarket
odds: who will win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Donald Trump — 69%
Ron DeSantis — 25%
R nomination - betting odds
Trump — 54.3% (+33.4)
DeSantis — 20.9%
Pence — 5.4%
Haley — 4.6%
Ramaswamy — 3.6%
T. Scott — 2%
@Polymarket
odds: who will win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Donald Trump — 69%
Ron DeSantis — 25%
R nomination - betting odds
This post was edited on 6/1 at 6:49 am
Ron would have to do something extraordinary on the debate stage to catch up and I bet trump doesn't even show up with that kind of lead.
What was the big change from the primaries to now? Maybe I'm wrong but I thought Desantis had like a 10 point lead over trump then.
Only real notable things have been Alvin Braggs charges.
What was the big change from the primaries to now? Maybe I'm wrong but I thought Desantis had like a 10 point lead over trump then.
Only real notable things have been Alvin Braggs charges.
January saw Desantis with a three to five point lead in some of the major polls. From that point on Trump has surged. You’re right though about Bragg being the only real major event to occur during that time period. I guess you could count the CNN town hall as another boost for Trump as well though
re: NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting oddsPosted by the808bass on 6/1/23 at 7:08 am to jbdawgs03
Lol
quote:Good point, I thought trump had taken a the lead by then but that for sure helped him
I guess you could count the CNN town hall as another boost for Trump as well though
quote:All he has to do is sit back and let Trump destroy himself
Ron would have to do something extraordinary on the debate stage to catch up and I bet trump doesn't even show up with that kind of lead.
re: NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting oddsPosted by PorkSammich on 6/1/23 at 7:31 am to jbdawgs03
For reference Trump’s odds were at 1% in June of 2015.
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I’ve become firmly convinced that over the years people who get paid to conduct polls are simply too worthless at any other job to do it.
Is DeSantis a better candidate than Trump? It’s pretty hard to argue that he isn’t.
Trump did a much better job as President than anyone since Reagan. Sadly that’s simply because every President since then has been shite and easy to look better by comparison.
Is DeSantis a better candidate than Trump? It’s pretty hard to argue that he isn’t.
Trump did a much better job as President than anyone since Reagan. Sadly that’s simply because every President since then has been shite and easy to look better by comparison.
re: NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting oddsPosted by jbdawgs03 on 6/1/23 at 7:52 am to PorkSammich
And Trump didn’t have the Murdoch / Ryan apparatus pushing him in 2015
re: NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting oddsPosted by FATBOY TIGER on 6/1/23 at 7:55 am to jbdawgs03
Easy money
quote:
Ron would have to do something extraordinary on the debate stage to catch up and I bet trump doesn't even show up with that kind of lead.
So we have 2 octagenarians now, in Trump and Biden, who won't debate?
Tell me again how 2024 is going to be "different"?
re: NEW: Current average of major polls for R nomination and current betting oddsPosted by HailToTheChiz on 6/1/23 at 8:01 am to loogaroo
quote:
No one consistently polling at or above 50% has ever lost the primary.
Sounds like a stat you just made up
quote:
No one consistently polling at or above 50% has ever lost the primary.
That's true of incumbents in Statewide elections. Presidential elections are completely different. Trump has 100% Name ID and a lot of people know very little about DeSantis. So many variables involved that make rules like that irrelevant.
Trump may win but it isn't because he is polling well right now.
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