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re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:48 am to Antonio Moss
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:48 am to Antonio Moss
quote:I would say crime is a symptom amplified by urbanization. I think it creates a greater opportunity to commit crime and greater opportunity to be influenced by criminals who manipulate others to join them.
Crime is pretty clearly a symptom of urbanization. I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that.
So maybe it suppresses the immune system.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:49 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
So how does one draw any inferences from this information when these population differences aren't accounted for?
I'd be interested in seeing how much different a per capita murder rate similar chart would look, sure.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:52 am to anc
I'd love to see how that correlates to gun ownership. And to multiculturalism.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:54 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
Democrats are doing so much to help murder victims and minorities
In fairness, standing on bodies takes a lot of effort
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:59 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Must have some really draconian gun control policies in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho.
Oh man do they ever!
It's a lot like Switzerland where every man has to have a rifle and know how to use it. Just awful, horrible, terrible I tell ya.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:15 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:Definitely agreed. And frankly, I think county level analysis of issues like this, would actually be pretty optimal, although drilling down to municipality and neighborhood level would be even better, but may not be possible.
County-level comparisons aren’t the best. But, it’s a hell of a lot better resolution than state-wide stats gun-banners love to tout.
So it's not he comparison level that's the problem, it's that the comparison level needs a lot of controls to become useful, but without those it's borderline useless.
quote:Yeah. Guns, gun policy, and crime is even more complicated than just analyzing crime in general.
You can have a handful of counties with strict gun laws that account for the majority of murder in a state. If the state has reasonable gun laws... the banners will blame the state’s “lax gun laws”
Because certain pertinent factors (gun accessibility) aren't restricted to the boundaries of the policies meant to impact the factors (can access guns from a place with easier accessibility, black market, etc.), and trying to account for this is complex and imprecise, even the best studies are too flawed, especially since how those complexities are controlled for seems to lead to discrepant results, even if all decisions were reasonable.
So I think from a baseline of the most basic, universally accepted policies, guns and gun policies have failed to reject the null hypothesis. So arguing for more control is not supported, but similarly Lott's "more guns, less crime" idea doesn't really reject it either, at this time.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:19 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:Agreed. But unless someone has done that, or has it set up to make it easy, that would be a lot of work.
I'd be interested in seeing how much different a per capita murder rate similar chart would look, sure.
And if you're going to do that much work, then might as well go all in, and obtain data for as many relevant variables as possible, and model it statistically, to identify the factors related to crime, and test various hypotheses.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:24 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Crime is pretty clearly a symptom of urbanization. I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that.
Urbanization has little to do with it. There are large parts of most urban areas where crime is relatively low.
The overriding factors are poverty and education level, and both are STRONGLY correlated to family structure.
That's where the problem lies - not in population density.
You solve one, the other two improve, and your crime rate plummets to the point that it reflects social aberration, rather than the current self inflicted cycle of poverty, ignorance, and criminal acts. The mantra about three simple rules is dead on.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:27 pm to buckeye_vol
I can help y'all out with your per capita analysis
In the counties with zero murders the per capita rate is zero.
In the counties with zero murders the per capita rate is zero.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:31 pm to anc
The other 81% are slackers!!!!! There has to be a person or two in those counties that needs killin'
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:39 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Urbanization has little to do with it.
That's false.
Population density is a direct correlation to violent crime rates.
quote:
The overriding factors are poverty and education level, and both are STRONGLY correlated to family structure.
Sure, it's multivariabled. But if you take a 100 uneducated, poor people an space them out over several miles, you would have much lower crime rate than if you put them on a single city block.
Population density makes a huge difference.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:40 pm to Antonio Moss
What's the ratio of murders per gun legally owned?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 12:43 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
What's the ratio of murders per gun legally owned?
Extremely low . . and lower than reported because there is no accurate count of "legal guns" in the U.S.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 1:41 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Sure, it's multivariabled. But if you take a 100 uneducated, poor people an space them out over several miles, you would have much lower crime rate than if you put them on a single city block.
Population density makes a huge difference.
I still disagree. An apartment building with educated and employed tenants has less crime than one with uneducated and underemployed tenants, despite like population densities.
Similarly, two neighborhoods of single family homes with those different conditions will have similarly disparate crime rates (not necessarily murder). The only difference urbanization brings is a little extra opportunity for the already criminally inclined.
You can have urbanization without creating the tidal wave of crime that exists in some urban areas. We should be addressing the root causes, though.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 3:57 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Zipcodes. And it’s possible. But banners don’t like those results.
neighborhood level would be even better, but may not be possible.
quote:Yeah. Equating strict gun laws with lack of availability is the false premise “researchers” love to make. The Cook Co interviews (while imperfect) paint a picture where availability is not hampered by even Chicago’s restrictive gun laws.
Because certain pertinent factors (gun accessibility) aren't restricted to the boundaries of the policies meant to impact the factors (can access guns from a place with easier accessibility, black market, etc.),
quote:It’s really not. Gang affiliation, drug trafficking, extramarital affairs all correlate to gun crime far better than gun ownership. But the banners don’t like that result. Can’t talk about personal responsibility lest you be branded a racist or a moralist. So... they play the game of intellectual gymnastics to scapegoat the inanimate object. The “complexity” comes from trying to fabricate the relationship out of third, fourth, fifth-order effects rather than the obvious.
Yeah. Guns, gun policy, and crime is even more complicated than just analyzing crime in general.
quote:The difficulty is locating a control group of criminals. The reality is most don’t act based on either anti-gun laws nor lax gun laws. They pretty much operate outside of he bounds of societal-norms. So social laws... aren’t a big factor.
So I think from a baseline of the most basic, universally accepted policies, guns and gun policies have failed to reject the null hypothesis. So arguing for more control is not supported, but similarly Lott's "more guns, less crime" idea doesn't really reject it either, at this time.
The difference is law-abiding citizens. They are the ones hurt by being disarmed of the means to defend themselves from those that don’t follow the laws. Punishing the law-abiding is no way to address crime.
So if the null case is correct, it shouldn’t be motivation to ban guns.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 4:04 pm to anc
Where is this map from? They have my county as bright red indicating 30 or more murders but there were 13 last year and 15 the year before.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 4:04 pm to Knight of Old
More people, more murder.
When i was in the 5th grade, i looked up the smallest towns in each state.
Out west there are towns with 9 or 25 people.
New jersey has a slew of cities 50k or more.
When i was in the 5th grade, i looked up the smallest towns in each state.
Out west there are towns with 9 or 25 people.
New jersey has a slew of cities 50k or more.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 4:17 pm to Knight of Old
quote:
Hmmm...seems to be a pretty strong correlation between bluer areas and murders...
Hmmmmm there also seems to be a sttong correlation to those areas and a much larger population. Hmmmmmm derp
Posted on 10/6/17 at 4:21 pm to Ebbandflow
The more liberal the area the more violent that area is.
Posted on 10/7/17 at 12:38 am to Rougarou13
quote:
From this map it looks like we should wall off Commiefornia.
or maybe we should divide California into a million tiny counties with a population in the double digits like the rest of the states ?
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