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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
26559 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Crime is pretty clearly a symptom of urbanization. I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that.
I would say crime is a symptom amplified by urbanization. I think it creates a greater opportunity to commit crime and greater opportunity to be influenced by criminals who manipulate others to join them.

So maybe it suppresses the immune system.


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Y.A. Tittle
Winthrop Fan
Member since Sep 2003
64928 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

So how does one draw any inferences from this information when these population differences aren't accounted for?


I'd be interested in seeing how much different a per capita murder rate similar chart would look, sure.


uway
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2004
27056 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
I'd love to see how that correlates to gun ownership. And to multiculturalism.


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Wtodd
Missouri Fan
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
26723 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Democrats are doing so much to help murder victims and minorities

In fairness, standing on bodies takes a lot of effort


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Sidicous
LSU Fan
Middle of Nowhere
Member since Aug 2015
3488 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Must have some really draconian gun control policies in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho.


Oh man do they ever!

It's a lot like Switzerland where every man has to have a rifle and know how to use it. Just awful, horrible, terrible I tell ya.


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
26559 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

County-level comparisons aren’t the best. But, it’s a hell of a lot better resolution than state-wide stats gun-banners love to tout.
Definitely agreed. And frankly, I think county level analysis of issues like this, would actually be pretty optimal, although drilling down to municipality and neighborhood level would be even better, but may not be possible.

So it's not he comparison level that's the problem, it's that the comparison level needs a lot of controls to become useful, but without those it's borderline useless.
quote:

You can have a handful of counties with strict gun laws that account for the majority of murder in a state. If the state has reasonable gun laws... the banners will blame the state’s “lax gun laws”
Yeah. Guns, gun policy, and crime is even more complicated than just analyzing crime in general.

Because certain pertinent factors (gun accessibility) aren't restricted to the boundaries of the policies meant to impact the factors (can access guns from a place with easier accessibility, black market, etc.), and trying to account for this is complex and imprecise, even the best studies are too flawed, especially since how those complexities are controlled for seems to lead to discrepant results, even if all decisions were reasonable.

So I think from a baseline of the most basic, universally accepted policies, guns and gun policies have failed to reject the null hypothesis. So arguing for more control is not supported, but similarly Lott's "more guns, less crime" idea doesn't really reject it either, at this time.


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
26559 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

I'd be interested in seeing how much different a per capita murder rate similar chart would look, sure.
Agreed. But unless someone has done that, or has it set up to make it easy, that would be a lot of work.

And if you're going to do that much work, then might as well go all in, and obtain data for as many relevant variables as possible, and model it statistically, to identify the factors related to crime, and test various hypotheses.


Evolved Simian
Alabama Fan
In a van by the river
Member since Sep 2010
10503 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Crime is pretty clearly a symptom of urbanization. I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that.




Urbanization has little to do with it. There are large parts of most urban areas where crime is relatively low.
The overriding factors are poverty and education level, and both are STRONGLY correlated to family structure.

That's where the problem lies - not in population density.

You solve one, the other two improve, and your crime rate plummets to the point that it reflects social aberration, rather than the current self inflicted cycle of poverty, ignorance, and criminal acts. The mantra about three simple rules is dead on.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 12:34 pm


gthog61
Georgia Tech Fan
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
27199 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
I can help y'all out with your per capita analysis

In the counties with zero murders the per capita rate is zero.


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KiwiHead
LSU Fan
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
5023 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
The other 81% are slackers!!!!! There has to be a person or two in those counties that needs killin'


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Antonio Moss
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
37273 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Urbanization has little to do with it.


That's false.

Population density is a direct correlation to violent crime rates.

quote:

The overriding factors are poverty and education level, and both are STRONGLY correlated to family structure.


Sure, it's multivariabled. But if you take a 100 uneducated, poor people an space them out over several miles, you would have much lower crime rate than if you put them on a single city block.

Population density makes a huge difference.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 12:39 pm


KosmoCramer
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2007
57900 posts
 Online 

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
What's the ratio of murders per gun legally owned?


Antonio Moss
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
37273 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

What's the ratio of murders per gun legally owned?


Extremely low . . and lower than reported because there is no accurate count of "legal guns" in the U.S.


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Evolved Simian
Alabama Fan
In a van by the river
Member since Sep 2010
10503 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Sure, it's multivariabled. But if you take a 100 uneducated, poor people an space them out over several miles, you would have much lower crime rate than if you put them on a single city block.

Population density makes a huge difference.


I still disagree. An apartment building with educated and employed tenants has less crime than one with uneducated and underemployed tenants, despite like population densities.

Similarly, two neighborhoods of single family homes with those different conditions will have similarly disparate crime rates (not necessarily murder). The only difference urbanization brings is a little extra opportunity for the already criminally inclined.

You can have urbanization without creating the tidal wave of crime that exists in some urban areas. We should be addressing the root causes, though.


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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
31967 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

neighborhood level would be even better, but may not be possible.
Zipcodes. And it’s possible. But banners don’t like those results.

quote:

Because certain pertinent factors (gun accessibility) aren't restricted to the boundaries of the policies meant to impact the factors (can access guns from a place with easier accessibility, black market, etc.),
Yeah. Equating strict gun laws with lack of availability is the false premise “researchers” love to make. The Cook Co interviews (while imperfect) paint a picture where availability is not hampered by even Chicago’s restrictive gun laws.

quote:

Yeah. Guns, gun policy, and crime is even more complicated than just analyzing crime in general.
It’s really not. Gang affiliation, drug trafficking, extramarital affairs all correlate to gun crime far better than gun ownership. But the banners don’t like that result. Can’t talk about personal responsibility lest you be branded a racist or a moralist. So... they play the game of intellectual gymnastics to scapegoat the inanimate object. The “complexity” comes from trying to fabricate the relationship out of third, fourth, fifth-order effects rather than the obvious.

quote:

So I think from a baseline of the most basic, universally accepted policies, guns and gun policies have failed to reject the null hypothesis. So arguing for more control is not supported, but similarly Lott's "more guns, less crime" idea doesn't really reject it either, at this time.
The difficulty is locating a control group of criminals. The reality is most don’t act based on either anti-gun laws nor lax gun laws. They pretty much operate outside of he bounds of societal-norms. So social laws... aren’t a big factor.

The difference is law-abiding citizens. They are the ones hurt by being disarmed of the means to defend themselves from those that don’t follow the laws. Punishing the law-abiding is no way to address crime.

So if the null case is correct, it shouldn’t be motivation to ban guns.
This post was edited on 10/6 at 3:59 pm


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northshorebamaman
Alabama Fan
Cascadia
Member since Jul 2009
19055 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
Where is this map from? They have my county as bright red indicating 30 or more murders but there were 13 last year and 15 the year before.


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CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
17482 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
More people, more murder.

When i was in the 5th grade, i looked up the smallest towns in each state.
Out west there are towns with 9 or 25 people.

New jersey has a slew of cities 50k or more.



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Ebbandflow
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2010
4903 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

Hmmm...seems to be a pretty strong correlation between bluer areas and murders...


Hmmmmm there also seems to be a sttong correlation to those areas and a much larger population. Hmmmmmm derp


roadGator
Florida Fan
Member since Feb 2009
80359 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
The more liberal the area the more violent that area is.


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632627
Southern Cal Fan
LA
Member since Dec 2011
7053 posts

re: More than half of US Counties did not have a murder last year
quote:

From this map it looks like we should wall off Commiefornia.



or maybe we should divide California into a million tiny counties with a population in the double digits like the rest of the states ?


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