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Margin of Error in polls is the best scam
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:40 am
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:40 am
I’m going to take your money and poll for you.
Then I’m not sure if the results are 100% accurate so what I am going to do is hedge 2-4% in either way.
Sounds good?
Pollsters are weather people when it comes to accuracy.
Then I’m not sure if the results are 100% accurate so what I am going to do is hedge 2-4% in either way.
Sounds good?
Pollsters are weather people when it comes to accuracy.
7
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:44 am to Covingtontiger77
One poll is a general indicator of where things stand today, not a prediction of what will happen tomorrow and not an exact measurement of where we are today.
2012 everyone said the polls were skewed against Romney. That turned out to not only be false, but they actually underestimated Obama’s performance.
2016 the polls were actually trending in Trump’s favor in the final days, so much so that those of us who were paying attention saw that the race was very close according to the polls prior to Election Day.
2012 everyone said the polls were skewed against Romney. That turned out to not only be false, but they actually underestimated Obama’s performance.
2016 the polls were actually trending in Trump’s favor in the final days, so much so that those of us who were paying attention saw that the race was very close according to the polls prior to Election Day.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:45 am to Covingtontiger77
MOE is a statistical necessity when you are sampling. That’s just how it works.
The scam is in the questions and the forced composition of the responders included in the polls.
The scam is in the questions and the forced composition of the responders included in the polls.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:47 am to Jon Ham
I said in the fall of 2016 that if Trump was within 3 in the polls he would win He was about 3.5 the day before if i recall and he lost popular vote by 2.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 8:49 am to Jon Ham
quote:
One poll is a general indicator of where things stand today, not a prediction of what will happen tomorrow and not an exact measurement of where we are today.
That’s the way it should be.
That’s not what we have. We have polls being manipulated to fit a desired result.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:00 am to Covingtontiger77
Margin of error is a mathematical reality when one tries to determine what a given number of people are going to do by questioning a small sample of them. You’re looking at the wrong thing. How a poll is sampled (number of registered democrats versus republicans being an example) and how the questions are worded is how political polls are manipulated.
This post was edited on 10/1/20 at 9:01 am
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:01 am to Covingtontiger77
MOE is realistic to a degree but it still depends on having good questions asked.
You can have a push poll written that will say 102% Biden with a 2% MOE but it is useless as a predictor because it was shite data.
You can have a push poll written that will say 102% Biden with a 2% MOE but it is useless as a predictor because it was shite data.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:04 am to Covingtontiger77
People can purposely mislead a pollster. The weather cannot. Both are unpredictable though.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:31 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Pollsters are weather people when it comes to accuracy.
Unless the poll(s) line up with your beliefs!
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:34 am to Covingtontiger77
Turnout modeling is the scam of polling, it can be manipulated to get the outcome wanted.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:43 am to Jon Ham
quote:
One poll is a general indicator of where things stand today, not a prediction of what will happen tomorrow and not an exact measurement of where we are today.
There is no way that Biden is outperforming Hillary by 15 points. No way. Like a bad troll attempt, Dems/ media/ deep state are tipping their hand.
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