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Our state representatives and senators were informed of their own district population numbers about two weeks ago. That’s when some lawmakers learned their districts were drained of population over the past decade. Others discovered their districts contained way more residents than what was thought.

The redistricting process is supposed to level the playing field. For example, each House district should have roughly 44,000 residents, based on a distribution of the latest Census figures for Louisiana. In the Senate, the magic number is 119,000. Lawmakers will be able to deviate from these averages by +/-5 percent when they’re redrawing districts next year.

Putting this formula into practice could mean a loss of legislative seats for north Louisiana, particularly in the greater Shreveport region, as other areas like the North Shore, New Orleans, Ascension, Livingston and Baton Rouge look to expand.

“I was not surprised to see the big gains in New Orleans and on the North Shore, but I was surprised by how much was lost in rural areas,” said House and Governmental Affairs Chair John Stefanski, R-Crowley, a key leader in the redistricting process. “No matter where you looked, rural areas lost people. Even in my district. I think you could see more of a concentration around urban areas and maybe some rural districts get larger.”

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When it comes to congressional maps, all eyes are on the districts of Congressman Mike Johnson and Congresswoman Julia Letlow. The districts occupied by these two Republicans have lost tens of thousands of residents, which means their districts will have to be reshaped to some extent.

The 4th and 5th districts currently stand side by side in north Louisiana, jogging vertically. Some have suggested all of north Louisiana could be split more horizontally. Others realize the district may ultimately resemble a shape that’s difficult to describe on the page. “That’s a difficult situation, because the only place those districts can go is south,” said Stefanski.

Gov. John Bel Edwards, meanwhile, has an huge role to play. A former member of the House, Edwards enjoys veto authority, which was a major talking point for national Democrats during the governor’s re-election bid. Whether or not Edwards will use that authority will be an unmissable theme during the special session.

So far the governor, saddled with directing recovery efforts for Hurricane Ida and the pandemic, has taken a quiet approach to the process, according to lawmakers. "I think this is a legislative exercise,” said Stefanski. “I haven't had any contact with the Governor’s Office on redistricting."

Edwards, however, has already said he has an interest in redistricting and that he wants a fair and even-handed process. His role may be a quiet one right now, but it won’t stay that way.

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The shaping of the North Louisiana Congressional Districts could get interesting. I remember during 2011 there were maps floating around where there would be only one true North LA Congressional district (Louisiana was having to lose a seat, from 7 to 6), but that strategy caught a hell of alot of flack and was scrapped.