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Kurt Eichenwald has tweeted about the virus

Posted on 7/9/20 at 11:53 pm
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33313 posts
Posted on 7/9/20 at 11:53 pm
quote:

Stop talking about percents. Let's talk about dead children.

57 million kids attend schools.

Assume a ridiculously low infection rate of 2% - that's 1,140,000 children sick. Assume a death rate of 0.5%. That's almost 6,000 dead children. Like two 9/11s, with just kids


Is it possible to have a more facile, clickbait take than this? Just off the top of my head:

--The death rate for children is way way way lower than .5%. The overall population death rate is likely to be only that or lower. Kids are maybe like .05%

--Doesn't even establish a baseline - he just takes as a given that not re-opening schools = 0 child infections/deaths. Also, just takes as a given that schools being open when there is no coronavirus = 0 deaths

--When theoretically doing a cost/benefit analysis, ONLY considers the COSTS...AND even then, only along the vector he cares about. This means he ignores the impact of prolonged periods of "remote learning" on student outcomes. I'll bet he's very very publicly concerned with inequality also - yet causing already vulnerable student populations to fall even further behind by ruining years of their schooling (thus impacting their career outcomes) doesn't seem to bother him at all

--Completely ignores the acceptable deaths we absorb daily from the very act of keeping schools open during normal times. We don't have a "cure" for automobile crashes or any other infectious diseases that kill children with no warning every year.


This cult of "safety-ism" bothers me maybe even more than the cancel culture shite going on.

Twatter

Thread Reader
Posted by Tunasntigers92
The Boot
Member since Sep 2014
23658 posts
Posted on 7/9/20 at 11:55 pm to
Didn't Trump say he's going to defund the schools if they remain closed?
Posted by WorkinDawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
9341 posts
Posted on 7/9/20 at 11:56 pm to
If we can save just one life! Unless of course that life hasn't been birthed yet, then it's Katie bar the door....
Posted by IceTiger
Really hot place
Member since Oct 2007
26584 posts
Posted on 7/9/20 at 11:56 pm to
It's looking like .0005%
Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
57832 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:05 am to
Tell Eichenwald we purposely murder hundreds of thousands of our kids per year, and no one bats an eye.
Posted by obdobd918
Member since Jun 2020
3228 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:08 am to
Let's call it 0.01% or 114 kids would die. These 114 should not be in school. Kids with cancer, morbidly obese, leukemia, or other pre-existing conditions will have to stay home. Let's say there are 250,000 of these kids nation wide. They stay home and the rest can go to school. Death rate should drop to near 0, if not 0.
Posted by DaleGribble
Bend, OR
Member since Sep 2014
6821 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:13 am to
Neil Ferguson wants someone to hold his beer.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
111496 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:13 am to
California has 0 deaths under 17.

Cases in that age range only make up 8.3% of cases despite that demographic being 22.5% of the total population.
LINK

In Missouri, 19 and under has had 2207 confirmed cases out of 26,000 cases. 8.4% of cases. And similarly, about 25% of the population is 19 and under. 0 deaths.



Are we ok opening up with zero deaths?
I feel like zero is a good number.
Posted by TrueLefty
St. Louis County
Member since Oct 2017
14861 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:14 am to
quote:

This cult of "safety-ism" bothers me maybe even more than the cancel culture shite going on.

Maybe "the end of the World" is really happening sooner than later?
Posted by EKG
Houston, TX
Member since Jun 2010
43977 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:14 am to
quote:

Didn't Trump say he's going to defund the schools if they remain closed?

He can’t—at least not in Texas.
Plus, education in the US is decentralized (states and local authorities have power over their public schools and higher education).

Federal funds only count for something like 5% of Texas Public school funding.
Additionally, Texas didn’t adopt the Common Core State Standards; so we don’t owe the feds for that monetary incentive.

Local property taxes (collected by school districts) and the State of Texas funds the remaining 95% of public school costs.
Posted by Tunasntigers92
The Boot
Member since Sep 2014
23658 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:16 am to
quote:

He can’t—at least not in Texas.


I wonder if there are any other states he can't do that in?
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
111496 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:19 am to
Florida has had 3 deaths 17 and under. 11,516 cases. That’s a CFR of 0.0002.

That’s close to Eichenwald’s 0.5, right? Oh; it’s 25 times smaller? I wonder what that does to his estimates.
This post was edited on 7/10/20 at 1:01 am
Posted by TrueLefty
St. Louis County
Member since Oct 2017
14861 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:20 am to
quote:

I wonder if there are any other states he can't do that in?


Louisiana?
Posted by PowerTool
The dark side of the road
Member since Dec 2009
21088 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:38 am to
Already know that guys a total psycho, but he’s just making up percentages to scare people. None of what he says is remotely close to reality.

ETA: he blocked me the first time I replied to him on twatter so I can’t see his tweets anymore
This post was edited on 7/10/20 at 12:40 am
Posted by Tunasntigers92
The Boot
Member since Sep 2014
23658 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:47 am to
What?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123776 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:49 am to
quote:

Kurt Eichenwald has tweeted about the virus
It appears CV19 is 2-to-3-fold LESS LETHAL to children than is influenza. So I guess Kurt wants schools shutdown from Oct-Mar every year?
Posted by da prophet
hammond, la
Member since Sep 2013
2273 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:50 am to
The “I need a safe space” mentality with the Milenials years back started all this. “I need to live in a bubble with no threats”.
Posted by Steadmans Cheddar
Member since Dec 2019
1347 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:58 am to
quote:


Didn't Trump say he's going to defund the schools if they remain closed?


Yes; he said that. That doesn’t mean it will happen. That was a PR stunt. Federal funding makes up 10% or less of school funding, and he can’t change what Congress has already allocated for this year.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
111496 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 1:00 am to
Iowa - 0 deaths - 17 and under
Nebraska - 0 deaths - 19 and under
Illinois - 1 death under 19, 5.1k cases (0.0002)
Kentucky - 1 death <19, 1.5k cases (.0006)
Tennessee - 3 deaths, 8.4k cases (0.0003)
Arkansas - 0 deaths under 17
Louisiana - 3 deaths <17, 4.5k cases (0.0006)
Mississippi - 0 deaths, 3.1k cases
Georgia - 1 death, 7.1k cases (<=17)
S. Carolina - 0 deaths, 7k cases
Posted by Tunasntigers92
The Boot
Member since Sep 2014
23658 posts
Posted on 7/10/20 at 1:00 am to
quote:

and he can’t change what Congress has already allocated for this year.


Then why would he say it?
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