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Message
In order to rein in inflation, is either side willing to deal with an immediate recession?
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:04 am
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:04 am
It’s likely that to get inflation under control, spending must be cut (or at least slowed down) and Fed rates must go up.
In 1981-1982 a recession resulting from such policies caused an increase in Democratic majorities in Congress in the midterm. Wasn’t a catastrophic loss, but it was still a minor pushback against Reagan’s monetary policy.
Today, does anyone want to take the heat for the immediate recession that is likely to follow monetary tightening?
In 1981-1982 a recession resulting from such policies caused an increase in Democratic majorities in Congress in the midterm. Wasn’t a catastrophic loss, but it was still a minor pushback against Reagan’s monetary policy.
Today, does anyone want to take the heat for the immediate recession that is likely to follow monetary tightening?
17
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:05 am to UndercoverBryologist
So in your mind, our only options are recession or inflation?
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:06 am to UndercoverBryologist
That might be unavoidable.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:07 am to UndercoverBryologist
The fed is politicized so don’t count on them being a fail safe.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:08 am to frequent flyer
quote:
So in your mind, our only options are recession or inflation?
I never offered a strict binary choice. Inflation cratered in the mid 80s, but you have to get through the immediate contractory recession first.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:08 am to UndercoverBryologist
Willing to deal??? Oh there is another one on the horizon. There is no “wiling to deal”.
There is only preparation for one.
Which this mush brain and his merry band of communists absolutely cannot do.
There is only preparation for one.
Which this mush brain and his merry band of communists absolutely cannot do.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:08 am to CGSC Lobotomy
With the size of the bubble, across all markets, across damn near the entire world, does anyone think it's just going to be a 2-year recession?
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:09 am to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
spending must be cut (or at least slowed down) and Fed rates must go up.
Both of these need to happen. They won't though. The stonks will take a hit, but the dollar value will rise.
This won't fix inflation though. Supply chains need to be opened or else our current trend of rising prices will continue regardless of these moves. As long as we keep firing people for Muh Vaxxx and paying people to be lazy fricks we will continue to see gas, meat and everything else rocket up the price charts.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:15 am to UndercoverBryologist
It won’t matter. The Creature from Jekyll Island will still exist.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:16 am to frequent flyer
quote:
So in your mind, our only options are recession or inflation?
Well, the main way to stop inflation is to stop QE and raise interest rates. This will almost assuredly cause a recession.
Or, we can just keep on keeping on with QE and kick the can of an even larger recession down the road a little longer.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:33 am to Ross
quote:
Well, the main way to stop inflation is to stop QE and raise interest rates. This will almost assuredly cause a recession.
I believe we are looking at probably two interest rate hikes next year
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:42 am to UndercoverBryologist
We would all be out of jobs unable to pay our rent/mortgages. Genius idea 
This post was edited on 11/24/21 at 9:44 am
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:44 am to frequent flyer
I mean it’ll be closely linked. What do you think happens to markets when funny money stops being churned out?
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:44 am to Ross
QE isn’t and never has been inflationary 
This post was edited on 11/24/21 at 9:45 am
Posted on 11/24/21 at 9:56 am to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
Today, does anyone want to take the heat for the immediate recession that is likely to follow monetary tightening?
Demand would help curb recessionary pressure associated with raising rates/ending the ridiculous spending. Also, productivity has been in the shitter so maybe if there’s concern about inflation, business and government stop bastardizing the workplace with politics.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 10:08 am to UndercoverBryologist
quote:
It’s likely that to get inflation under control, spending must be cut (or at least slowed down) and Fed rates must go up.
Maybe. This is a unique situation, and you cannot compare it to any in the past. The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Milton Friedman hit on a wonderful strategy that drove American policy for 40 years after Reagan implemented it. We are just now reaching the end of the Reagan economy.
We kept expanding the money supply (too much money) and we kept outsourcing manufacturing to Asia (too many goods). We kept interest rates low, and did not get inflation because we gave Americans more shite to buy than they could, even with the rapidly increasing supply of money.
Now, because of the stupid pandemic response, we have goods logjammed of the west coast. We now have TOO FEW GOODS. But it is a supply chain issue, not an economics one.
Fix the supply chain, and inflation should (might?) go away.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 10:16 am to UndercoverBryologist
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. Get the ports in Cali running, and stop the Covid restrictions on meat processing and prices go down.
Posted on 11/24/21 at 10:17 am to Penrod
quote:
Fix the supply chain, and inflation should (might?) go away.
I don’t know if you can maintain blowing up the monetary balloon AND maintain the recent protectionist trade policies indefinitely.
You’re going to keep pumping more money into people’s hands which going to artificially raise demand. An America First policy on supply chain lines can only supply enough goods at any one point.
Eventually, you’ll hit a wall where supply cannot keep up with demand
Posted on 11/24/21 at 10:20 am to UndercoverBryologist
Youre aware the dems are hell bent on printing another 7 trillion and already passed it in the house correct?
Posted on 11/24/21 at 10:21 am to wutangfinancial
For real, what would happen if we hard Carter-era interest rates? Economic collapse?
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