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Impact of out of state students on swing state votes?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:06 pm
New Hampshire could be an important state. I believe there are 48000 out of state students in NH - the majority of which won't be returning to NH in time for the election. Clinton carried NH by ~2700 votes...
The way I see it, if Trump carries FL, then he only needs one of: WI, MI, PA, MN or NH. Thus, getting NH could be huge.
If he loses FL, then he must get all 5 of those.
The way I see it, if Trump carries FL, then he only needs one of: WI, MI, PA, MN or NH. Thus, getting NH could be huge.
If he loses FL, then he must get all 5 of those.
8
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:08 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think you're overthinking this. OOS NH Students vote where they are residents, not where they are in college. I suspect they get to use absentee votes due to their college status. Unless you change your residence, you still only vote where you are a citizen.
For example, I was born and raised in the Greater New Orleans Area. I went to LSU for undergrad. I still voted for my parish elections, and had no say in BR elections. In fact, I often requested absentee ballots because I was in college and that was one of the permitted exceptions to get an absentee ballot.
For example, I was born and raised in the Greater New Orleans Area. I went to LSU for undergrad. I still voted for my parish elections, and had no say in BR elections. In fact, I often requested absentee ballots because I was in college and that was one of the permitted exceptions to get an absentee ballot.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:08 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
New Hampshire could be an important state. I believe there are 48000 out of state students in NH - the majority of which won't be returning to NH in time for the election. Clinton carried NH by ~2700 votes...
Can you clarify here?
Are you saying out of state students were voting in a state they didn't reside in in 2016?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I believe there are 48000 out of state students in NH - the majority of which won't be returning to NH in time for the election.
Huh? I stayed in state for college, but out of town. I did not re-register to vote in my college town until I decided to stay here and live. Up until then I kept my home address as my Dad's house and voted absentee.
Are 18 year old college students really re-registering to vote in their college towns?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
If Trump wins Florida he has to win either MI, WI, MN, or PA
NH itself is only 4 EV right? That would only put him at 264
NH itself is only 4 EV right? That would only put him at 264
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:13 pm to Big Scrub TX
This is a good point. Likely 90% of those students are from blue northeast states like New York, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, etc.They probably have a 25% turnout and probably vote 90% for the Dems. So lets do the math: 0.9 X 0.25 X 0.9 X 48000 = 9,720.
So that's more than enough votes removed from the Dem column to flip NH.
I hope your assumption about the students not being in NH on election day is correct.
So that's more than enough votes removed from the Dem column to flip NH.
I hope your assumption about the students not being in NH on election day is correct.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:13 pm to Big Scrub TX
Out of state student votes DEFINITELY played a part in NH’s 2016 election. Just look at how many visits the HRC campaign made to Durham.
Also, there was certainly illegal alien hanky lanky in Nashua and Manchester.
Cost Trump the state and Ayotte her Senate seat...
ETA: in 2016, NH allowed same day voter registration, as long as the voter could prove residence within a certain time frame. Perhaps needless to say, many of those registrants never followed up and the votes were already counted. This program was drilled into students - especially at the UNH campus in Durham, which has a significant population of out-of-state students from NY, NJ, and MD.
There has been a push to revise that but guess who is in opposition...
Also, there was certainly illegal alien hanky lanky in Nashua and Manchester.
Cost Trump the state and Ayotte her Senate seat...
ETA: in 2016, NH allowed same day voter registration, as long as the voter could prove residence within a certain time frame. Perhaps needless to say, many of those registrants never followed up and the votes were already counted. This program was drilled into students - especially at the UNH campus in Durham, which has a significant population of out-of-state students from NY, NJ, and MD.
There has been a push to revise that but guess who is in opposition...
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:13 pm to upgrayedd
quote:This stuff varies from state to state, and I believe NH has one of the quirkier regs. In the past, they could vote as "domiciled persons" instead of "residents". There was a change in the law in late 2019, though.
Can you clarify here?
Are you saying out of state students were voting in a state they didn't reside in in 2016?
quote:
House Bill 1264 merged the definitions of “domiciled” person and “resident” in New Hampshire. The effect, state officials argue, is that students with out-of-state driver’s licenses are effectively declaring their residency upon voting. They did not need a New Hampshire driver’s license to vote Tuesday, but by voting they were accepting the obligation to get one and to register their car within 60 days after voting, the state has argued.
Those obligations, if found legal, would be new for a New Hampshire election. For decades, out-of-state college students could vote as domiciled persons, a designation that allowed them to cast ballots while keeping car registrations and driver’s licenses from other states.
Opponents of the new law, who include the American Civil Liberties Union of New Hampshire and the state Democratic Party, say the law does not adequately spell out the obligations and can’t actually be enforced. Those groups are currently suing the state in the U.S. District Court in Concord to invalidate the law.
LINK
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:17 pm to Big Scrub TX
Doesnt matter Trump will win VA the people in the southern counties are piss off and will turn out on election day
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:17 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
This stuff varies from state to state, and I believe NH has one of the quirkier regs. In the past, they could vote as "domiciled persons" instead of "residents". There was a change in the law in late 2019, though.
So you could technically vote twice in 2 different states.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:19 pm to Big Scrub TX
When at LSU, I used to vote 'absentee' in my home state. I would guess that a lot of them would do that.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:22 pm to Fonzarelli
New Hampshire college students are famous for registering to vote in NH, because many of them are from deep blue states where their vote doesn't matter. Its a big push there that is uncommon in the South.
It really keeps NH leaning blue. The permanent citizenry of New Hampshire leans right.
There are 10 counties in New Hampshire. Six went to Trump, four went to Clinton. As was stated above, Clinton won by 2600 votes statewide.
Clinton won Grafton County 56-37. Dartmouth and Plymouth State University are located there. It is the only county in NH with all Democrat commissioners and officials.
Merrimack County, where NH's capital Concord, is the largest county. It is part of the Boston metro area and Clinton won 48-45. Since then, the county has gone from 2 of 3 Democrat commissioners to 2 of 3 Republican commissioners.
New Hampshire is probably the most important state in this year's election.
It really keeps NH leaning blue. The permanent citizenry of New Hampshire leans right.
There are 10 counties in New Hampshire. Six went to Trump, four went to Clinton. As was stated above, Clinton won by 2600 votes statewide.
Clinton won Grafton County 56-37. Dartmouth and Plymouth State University are located there. It is the only county in NH with all Democrat commissioners and officials.
Merrimack County, where NH's capital Concord, is the largest county. It is part of the Boston metro area and Clinton won 48-45. Since then, the county has gone from 2 of 3 Democrat commissioners to 2 of 3 Republican commissioners.
New Hampshire is probably the most important state in this year's election.
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 8/25/20 at 1:34 pm to Big Scrub TX
Usually students vote absentee? I never voted in Starkville when I was at Mississippi state
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