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How can Fox have a national poll that only samples 1000 people?

Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:04 am
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
30371 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:04 am
They open every segment this morning touting their new national poll.
Posted by redneck hippie
Stillwater
Member since Dec 2008
5574 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:05 am to
Statistics
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105376 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:05 am to
They call till they can get data from 1000 people.
This post was edited on 8/14/20 at 10:05 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41526 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:06 am to
It's "registered voters".
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
81285 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:06 am to
1000 people is enough. It’s that they over sample Dems and undersample Republicans
Posted by oogabooga68
Member since Nov 2018
27194 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:06 am to
Lies and damn lies...
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68030 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:07 am to
1000 is not the problem. The problem is that it uses registered voters rather than the more accurate likely voters. Merely using registered voters usually favors democrat candidates.
Posted by MikeBRLA
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2005
16448 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:09 am to
Are you not familiar with statistics and sample size?
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15648 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Lies and damn lies...


Nice reference.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
30371 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:19 am to
Hard for me to believe they reach an accurate representation with only 20 people per state.
Posted by Sidicous
Middle of Nowhere
Member since Aug 2015
17127 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:22 am to
quote:

Are you not familiar with statistics and sample size?
Statistics really should be a mandatory course for every major, even at the 101 level like Econ or Eng. Even a Statistics Terminology class at the least so people can understand what is being talked about.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118636 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:22 am to
The posters always give themselves plausible deniability by stating, "as the race stands now" but the people reporting on the poll promote the illusion that this poll forecasts the result of election day.

In other words, the poll's only purpose is to provide subject matter for pundits and media personalities to talk about.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
33979 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:24 am to
They never reveal the methodology, and they never mention Rasmussen anymore, because it doesn't fit their newfound dogma.
Posted by PhDoogan
Member since Sep 2018
14947 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:26 am to
quote:

1000 people is enough. It’s that they over sample Dems and undersample Republicans


This, and it was a national poll of registered, not likely voters.
Posted by longwayfromLA
NYC
Member since Nov 2007
3331 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:27 am to
quote:

How can Fox have a national poll that only samples 1000 people?


Gaussian distribution, yo.
Posted by Choctaw
Pumpin' Sunshine
Member since Jul 2007
77774 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:28 am to
Kushner was on Fox saying almost all these polls are bullshite because they greatly undersample Republicans. Some as low as 24%
This post was edited on 8/14/20 at 10:28 am
Posted by TigerRanter
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2005
6703 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:29 am to
Might have interviewed 3000 and picked the 1000 they wanted to use.
Posted by EKG
Houston, TX
Member since Jun 2010
43977 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:31 am to
Has to do with sample size and margin of error.
There comes a point where you reach a saturation level, and more poll respondents don’t change the outcome.

Posted by TheBoo
South to Louisiana
Member since Aug 2012
4485 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:34 am to
quote:

How can Fox have a national poll that only samples 1000 people?


That's a lot more than what's considered to be a sufficient sample size.
Posted by AnyonebutSteelers
Austin, Texas
Member since Aug 2020
711 posts
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:41 am to
You don't need a whole lot of precision at this time and point of the election, as long as your sample size is accurate and representative (which it may not be in this case.)

1,000 voters yields an error of plus-or-minus 3 percent, which is reasonable for August. It can't tell you if one candidate is ahead by a razor margin, but it can tell you if one candidate is comfortably ahead.
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